Soybeans Falling Early on Tuesday, with Wetter Forecasts Adding Pressure

Soybeans are posting 9 to 11 cent losses at Tuesday’s midday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is up 3 ½ cents at $11.36 1/4. Soymeal futures are up 50 to 70 cents lower, with Soy Oil dropping 139 points. There were 4 delivery notices against August soybeans overnight, with 12 for bean oil. 

USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China this morning for 2026/27 shipment, with 180,000 MT of soybean meal sold to the Philippines. 

Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 93% of the US soybean crop blooming by 8/9, with 74% setting pods and 5 percentage points faster than the 5-year average. Condition ratings were down 1% at 62% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index slipping 2 points at 361. Much of the drop came in ND (-31), with MN/WI (-4), MO/OH (-2), and IA/KS (-1) all seeing some deterioration. Improvement was seen in several states, including IL (+4), IN (+1), MI (+9), NE (+7) and SD (+4).

The NOAA 7-day forecast is calling for heavy rains across much of the Dakotas/NE, through IA, IL, IN, and OH over the next week, with the ECB expected to see rains over the next day.

A Reuters survey of traders shows expectations for NASS to peg US soybean yield at 52.9 bpa on Wednesday. Harvested acres are seen 163,000 acres higher than in the June report at 84.564 million acres, with production seen at 4.472 bbu. Ahead of the WASDE, stocks for 2025/26 are seen at 321 mbu, down 9 mbu from the previous month. New crop soybean stocks are estimated to drop 6 mbu to 304 mbu.

ANEC raised their estimate for August Brazilian soybean exports by 1.14 MMT to 10.88 MMT.

Aug 26 Soybeans  are at $11.47 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $11.26, down 10 cents,

Sep 26 Soybeans  are at $11.52 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Nov 26 Soybeans  are at $11.69 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $11.10 1/4, down 10 cents,