Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Fastenal Stock Will Climb or Sink?

Winona, Minnesota-based Fastenal Company (FAST) engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies. Valued at $59.5 billion by market cap, the company offers fasteners, cutting tools, metal working, lifting, hardware, plumbing, lubricant, and other related products. FAST serves weld-to-length bandsaw blades, custom sling fabrication, inspection, custom packaging, calibration, tool repairing, and custom logo program worldwide.

Shares of this largest fastener distributor have underperformed the broader market over the past year. FAST has gained 8.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 21.3%. However, in 2026, FAST stock is up 30%, surpassing the SPX’s 13.3% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, FAST’s underperformance looks more pronounced compared to the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 22.4% over the past year. However, the stock’s returns on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 19% gains over the same time frame.

While FAST aggressively expands lower margin national accounts and integrates FastBin and FastVend technology to secure long term market share, Wall Street penalizes the stock for the resulting gross margin compression. Trading at a premium valuation multiple, the company leaves no cushion for earnings that merely match expectations, triggering sharp sell-offs whenever quarterly reports reflect tighter margins. The market interprets these shrinking gross margins as an operational vulnerability rather than an intentional trade-off for SG&A leverage, compounding relative underperformance as investors rotate away from sluggish industrial end-markets toward higher growth tech equities.

On Jul. 14, FAST shares closed down by 2.8% after reporting its Q2 results. Its EPS of $0.33 met Wall Street expectations. The company’s revenue was $2.4 billion, topping Wall Street forecasts of $2.3 billion.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect FAST’s EPS to grow 15.6% to $1.26 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It met the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion. 

Among the 17 analysts covering FAST stock, the consensus is a “Hold.” That’s based on six “Strong Buy” ratings, eight “Holds,” and three “Strong Sells.”

This configuration is more bullish than a month ago, with five analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

On Jul. 17, Barclays PLC (BCS) analyst Guy Hardwick maintained a “Hold” rating on FAST and set a price target of $46.

While FAST currently trades above its mean price target of $49.77, the Street-high price target of $55 suggests an upside potential of 5.5%.