Hertz Stuns on Strong Q2 Earnings. What Comes Next for HTZ Stock.

Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) is one of the world’s largest car rental and mobility companies, operating roughly 11,000 locations across 160 countries with a fleet of more than 500,000 vehicles. But lately, the century-old rental giant has been giving investors something else to watch.

Hertz’s second-quarter 2026 report, released on Aug. 6, was impressive, with the numbers coming in well above expectations. In fact, the quarter marked the strongest revenue per day (RPD) in recent history, excluding the COVID-era peak of 2022. Adjusted losses remain, but they are narrowing, and that was enough to put some wind back in HTZ’s sails. Shares jumped 29.5% and another 12.4% the following day.

Now, with its “back-to-basics” strategy underway and its Oro mobility platform preparing for a September 2026 robotaxi launch, is this strong quarter just a short-term boost or the beginning of a bigger turnaround? With HTZ stock still down 72.92% from its 2026 peak, what could be next for the stock from here?

About Hertz Global Stock

Founded in 1918, Hertz Global Holdings has evolved well beyond its traditional car-rental roots, building a portfolio that spans vehicle rentals, used-car sales, car sharing, and next-generation mobility services. Its brand family includes Hertz, Dollar, Thrifty, and Firefly, giving the company exposure to different customer segments and travel needs.

Through Hertz Car Sales, it also participates in the used-vehicle market, selling pre-owned cars directly to consumers through digital and physical channels. Meanwhile, its Hertz 24/7 offering extends the company into car sharing, particularly across European markets. Hertz is also pursuing opportunities in autonomous mobility through its operating affiliate, Oro Mobility, which develops fleet-management solutions for both driver-led and autonomous applications. Headquartered in Estero, Florida, Hertz is positioning its century-old business for a rapidly changing mobility landscape.

Valued at a market capitalization of $716.8 million, shares of the global car rental company have had a rough ride this year. HTZ climbed to a 52-week high of $8.18 in April, only to lose ground rapidly and hit a low of $1.45 on Aug. 5.

Behind that steep decline were several problems piling up at once. Hertz was dealing with falling used-car values, which created concerns around the resale value of its large vehicle fleet. That matters because when the value of used cars declines, Hertz can recover less when it sells vehicles, while weaker residual values can also increase depreciation costs. Heavy vehicle depreciation was already weighing on the company’s finances, adding another layer of pressure. At the same time, Hertz faced a class-action lawsuit, substantial debt obligations and the added blow of being removed from the S&P SmallCap 600 index.

Then came Aug. 6, and the story suddenly took a turn. Hertz reported its second-quarter results, and HTZ jumped double digits over the Aug. 6 and Aug. 7 trading sessions, but this was not an ordinary earnings bounce. Trading volume went through the roof. More than 155.8 million Hertz’s shares changed hands on Thursday, followed by over 227.2 million on Friday.

The unusual activity also sparked renewed discussion across Reddit communities, with investors focusing on Hertz’s heavy short interest. Short interest stood at 31.2% of the float, while the days-to-cover ratio was around 3.94 days.

That combination creates the ingredients for a potential short squeeze. Put simply, when a heavily shorted stock suddenly starts climbing, short sellers can find themselves caught on the wrong side of the trade. To limit losses, they buy shares to close their positions, and that additional demand can push the stock even higher. Given HTZ’s sharp move and enormous trading volumes, short covering appears to have played an important role in the recent rally.

Still, HTZ is down 60.2% over the past 52 weeks, 56.94% year-to-date (YTD), and 63.42% over the past three months alone. However, the stock is up 9.27% over the past month and a striking 46.41% over the past five trading days.

Technically, the chart does not flash extreme weakness. The 14-day RSI, which had fallen into oversold territory in July, has recovered to 51.69. That puts the indicator close to neutral territory and suggests the recent rebound has taken some of the pressure off HTZ.

Valuation-wise, HTZ stock is priced at 0.09 times sales, cheaper than the industry average and its historical median.

Hertz Global Posted Strong Q2 Results

Hertz reported its second-quarter results last week, and it was impressive. The company generated $2.4 billion in revenue, up 10% year-over-year (YOY), beating Wall Street’s expectations. Adjusted loss came in at $0.11 per share, narrower than what the Street expected. 

A closer look at the numbers makes the improvement even more interesting. RPD rose 9% annually to $61.98, with management saying roughly 6 to 7 percentage points came from its own commercial actions, rather than simply riding industry pricing. U.S. airport car rental RPD increased 12% YOY. Revenue per unit per month reached $1,542, up 8% YOY and above its target, even with a fleet that was 1% smaller. 

Profitability is where things really started to turn. Adjusted corporate EBITDA jumped 350% YOY to $81 million, pushing the margin to 3.4% from 0.8%. Vehicle recalls did create a 200-basis-point drag on utilization, but total fleet utilization still reached 79%. However, free cash flow fell 50% to $162 million, partly because last year benefited from unusually large gains tied to the tariff environment during fleet rotation.

The bigger picture is Hertz’s “back-to-basics” strategy. The company is working on three fronts – optimizing the fleet, improving revenue per vehicle and tightening costs. Depreciation per unit came in at $302, getting close to the sub-$300 target for 2026. Around 94% of the U.S. core fleet now consists of 2025 and 2026 model-year vehicles. Hertz is also trying to move beyond its 70%-80% wholesale mix toward more profitable retail vehicle sales.

On the revenue side, management is focusing on better customer experience, higher-margin demand, smarter pricing and stronger value-added sales. Meanwhile, direct operating expenses per transaction day increased 4% to $37.49, keeping cost control firmly on the agenda. Then there is Oro, Hertz’s mobility platform, which could become an increasingly important piece of the puzzle. Oro operates more than 40,000 rideshare rental vehicles across 149 markets and is targeting more than $600 million in revenue in 2026.

Still, investors cannot ignore Hertz’s balance sheet. Liquidity stood at $984 million as of June 30, including $628 million in unrestricted cash and $356 million available through its revolving credit facility.

Looking ahead, Hertz expects Q3 adjusted corporate EBITDA of $275 million to $325 million and positive EPS, a potential milestone for the turnaround. Full-year EBITDA guidance stands at $225 million to $275 million, with management still targeting more than $500 million of year-over-year improvement. Beyond 2026, the company expects to generate positive free cash flow in the second half of 2026 and throughout 2027, while targeting $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2027.

With franchising, fleet services and Oro providing additional growth avenues – and liquidity expected to reach $1 billion to $1.4 billion by year-end – the pieces are beginning to fall into place. 

Meanwhile, analysts tracking Hertz Global expect Q3 EPS to be around $0.09, a clear improvement from the loss reported in Q2, although still about 25% below the year-ago level. Revenue is expected to reach $2.63 billion. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, loss per share is anticipated to narrow by 41.5% YOY to $1.20 per share and then shrink by another 63.3% annually, bringing the expected loss down to just $0.44 per share.

What Do Analysts Expect for HTZ Stock?

Overall, the stock carries a “Moderate Sell” rating. Among the 10 analysts tracking the stock, seven advise a “Hold,” and three suggest a “Strong Sell” rating. HTZ’s average price target of $2.70 suggests upside potential of 22.7% from the current price level. However, the Street-high target of $5.50 suggests the shares could still climb another 150%.

Final Thoughts on HTZ Stock

Hertz’s strong Q2 report has certainly put HTZ stock back on investors’ radar, but the recent surge was not just about improving fundamentals. A potential short squeeze, fueled by heavy short interest and massive trading volumes, has added rocket fuel to the rally. The real test now is whether narrowing losses, stronger revenue, and ambitious 2027 targets can sustain the momentum once the short-covering frenzy fades.