Stocks Pressured as Higher Crude Price Boosts T-Note Yields

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.15%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.04%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.10%.

Stock indices are under pressure today from higher crude oil prices, which are boosting inflation expectations and T-note yields.  WTI crude oil is up more than +2% today, pushing the 10-year T-note yield up by +3 bp to 4.68%.

Stock losses are limited today by strength in energy stocks and cybersecurity companies.  Also, optimism in AI spending is supportive for stocks after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a bellwether for AI spending that produces the vast majority of the world’s most advanced chips, reported today that its July sales rose 45% y/y, a sign of sustained demand for its AI hardware. 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its year-end projection for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,800, saying a strong earnings season and faster AI monetization than expected are boosting profit estimates. 

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.  So far, earnings results have been positive, with 85% of the 444 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. 

Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) are up more than +2% today as Iran and Oman remained short of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said an agreement with Oman to establish a shipping route through the strait was "very close," but its reopening would require the US to end its blockade of Iranian shipping, withdraw its forces from around Iran, remove sanctions, release frozen assets, and compensate Iran for damages caused by US attacks.  It also demanded a permanent end to attacks on groups it backs in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza. 

President Trump on Sunday signaled he's prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch additional military strikes, saying the US was only "semi-negotiating" with Iran on the Strait of Hormuz and that the US blockade of Iran was deepening the country's financial woes.

The risk of a renewed flare-up across the Middle East remains high, as another UAE tanker was targeted by a missile on Saturday while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  Also, on Sunday, Houthi militants in Yemen claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery.

The markets are discounting a 47% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.10%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3.5-week high and closed up +0.672%.  Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average rallied to a 2-week high and closed up sharply by +2.08%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) are down -4 ticks today.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.5 bp to 4.680%.  T-notes are under pressure today from a more than +1% rise in WTI crude oil prices, which boosts inflation expectations.  Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-note prices as the Treasury will auction $125 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week, beginning with a $58 billion auction of 3-year T-notes on Tuesday. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.4 bp to 3.156%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.9 bp to 4.960%.

The Eurozone Aug Sentix investor confidence index rose +4.0 to a 6-month high of 0.9, stronger than expectations of -0.5. 

Markets are discounting an 87% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.

US Stock Movers

Energy stocks and service providers are climbing today, with the price of WTI crude oil up more than +2%.  APA Corp (APA) is up more than +5%, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are up more than +4%.  Also, ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), Haliburton (HAL), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +3%.  In addition, SLB Ltd (SLB) is up more than +2%, and Chevron (CVX) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.

Most cybersecurity stocks are moving higher today to provide support to the broader market. CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Fortinet (FTNT) are up more than +3%, and Zscaler (ZS) and Okta (OKTA) are up more than +2%. 

Monday.com (MNDY) is down more than -8% after forecasting Q3 revenue of $370 million, weaker than the consensus of $372.8 million. 

Trade Desk (TTD) closed down more than -4%, adding to last Friday’s -22% plunge, after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 and forecasting Q3 revenue below consensus. 

Intel (INTC) is down more than -4% to lead lsoers in the Nasdaq 100 after announcing its intention to offer $15 billion in common stock.

Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP) is down more than -3% after announcing the commencement of an underwritten registered public offering of 5.1 million shares of its common stock. 

Samsara (IOT) is down more than -3% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight with a price target of $40. 

Apple (AAPL) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Jeffries downgraded the stock to underperform from hold with a price target of $263.66.

Cloudflare (NET) is down more than -1% after announcing its intention to offer $2.175 billion aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private offering. 

Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) is up more than +48% after Teledyne Technologies agreed to acquire the company for $1.1 billion or $18.90 per share. 

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is up more than +3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $69. 

RadNet (RDNT) is up more than +1% after raising its full-year Imaging Center revenue estimate to $2.37 billion to $2.42 billion from a previous estimate of $2.36 billion to $2.41 billion. 

Earnings Reports (8/10/2026)

AAON Inc (AAON), AECOM (ACM), Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM), AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS), Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM), Bridgebio Pharma Inc (BBIO), Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG), JBS NV (JBS), Medical Properties Trust Inc (MPT), NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ), Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB), Simon Property Group Inc (SPG).