Sandisk Shares Fall Despite Strong Q4 Results. How to Play SNDK Stock Here.

Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) posted a strong fiscal fourth quarter, with revenue of $8.97 billion, up 51% from the prior quarter and 372% from a year earlier. For the full fiscal year, revenue climbed 175% to $20.25 billion as AI-related data-center storage demand increased and NAND prices improved.

Still, investors focused on the outlook. SNDK stock fell 3% in Wednesday’s extended session after management guided for Q1 revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. The midpoint was below the roughly $10.82 billion analysts expected, which took some shine off the company’s strong Q4 results.

With Sandisk reporting record results but issuing mixed guidance, is this pullback a buying opportunity for SNDK? Let’s find out.

Inside Sandisk’s Record Fourth Quarter

Sandisk Corporation is a pure-play flash-storage company, designing and supplying NAND-based products for data centers, edge devices, and consumers. 

SNDK stock has had a wild run. It rose as much as 858% year-to-date (YTD) by late June, then fell 47% in July after China’s CXMT raised concerns about more competition and pressure on NAND prices. Even so, Sandisk shares are still up 2,919% over the past 52 weeks.

At current price levels, Sandisk trades at 7.68x forward earnings, below the sector average of 23.68x, suggesting investors expect the company’s unusually strong earnings to cool over time.

The Q4 results were still difficult to ignore. Revenue reached $8.97 billion, up 51% from Q3 and 372% from a year earlier. GAAP net income rose 91% to $6.90 billion, or $43.97 per diluted share. Non-GAAP net income increased 68% to $6.16 billion, with EPS of $39.25. Gross margin improved by 620 basis points from Q3 to 84.6%, compared with roughly 26% a year earlier. GAAP operating income came in at $7.04 billion, while non-GAAP operating income was $7.10 billion.

Operating cash flow was $7.13 billion, and adjusted free cash flow reached $5.04 billion, excluding $1.94 billion in new-business-model prepayments and deposits. Still, the market zeroed in on Q1 guidance of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $44 to $46. The revenue midpoint was below Wall Street’s forecast. Sandisk Corporation also bought back $4.5 billion of stock in Q4 and added $14 billion to its authorization, bringing its available buyback capacity to $15.5 billion.

The Fundamentals Behind the Rally in SNDK Stock

Sandisk works with Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) to make NAND flash memory, which helps it share both the cost and the technology needed to produce chips. On July 2, the two companies started making 10th-generation 3D flash at Fab2 in Kioxia’s Kitakami plant in Japan. Their agreement now runs through December 2034 and includes joint work on chip designs and production technology, as well as shared output from factories in Yokkaichi and Kitakami. That gives Sandisk access to advanced manufacturing without having to fund and own the factories by itself.

In March, Sandisk invested about $1 billion in Nanya Technology through a private placement, giving it a roughly 3.9% stake. Some investors questioned the move at first, but it gives the company more access to DRAM supply if shortages in related memory markets make components harder or more expensive to source.

Sandisk is also looking beyond its core storage business. On Aug. 3, it and SK Hynix (SKHY) released the first High Bandwidth Flash specification through the Open Compute Project, after launching their standardization group in February. HBF uses NAND as a high-capacity partner to high-bandwidth memory for AI inference. Sandisk plans to sample the first HBF memory in the second half of 2026, while initial AI inference devices using the technology are expected to sample in early 2027.

What Analysts Expect From Here

Sandisk Corporation will report its next quarterly results on Nov. 5 for the quarter ending in September. Analysts expect earnings of $40.68 per share, up 4,420% from $0.90 a year earlier. Looking further ahead, the consensus calls for $185.89 per share in fiscal 2027, up 167.89% from $69.39 in fiscal 2026.

Several analysts remain positive on SNDK stock. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan kept his “Buy” rating and raised his 12-month price target to $2,100. He expects tight NAND supply, growing AI data-center demand, and higher margins to keep supporting the company. Bernstein analyst Mark Newman has a “Buy” rating and a $3,000 target, while Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini also rates the stock a “Buy” with a $3,050 target.

All 22 analysts covering SNDK rate the stock a consensus “Strong Buy.” Their average price target of $2,342.65 points to roughly 90% upside from current levels.

Conclusion

Sandisk remains a compelling but highly volatile way to gain exposure to the AI storage buildout and the favorable NAND supply backdrop. The Q4 numbers, buyback program, Kioxia partnership, and HBF opportunity support the long-term bullish case, while the softer-than-expected revenue midpoint shows that expectations are already exceptionally high. For investors, the most sensible approach is to accumulate gradually rather than chase sharp rallies. Shares are likely to remain volatile near term as the market digests guidance and NAND competition concerns, but the direction still appears higher over the longer term if tight supply, data center demand, and elevated margins hold up.