Stock Index Futures Gain With All Eyes on Key U.S. Jobs Report

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are up +0.25%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) are up +0.55% this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s losses, while investors await the key U.S. jobs report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

A wave of positive corporate earnings reports is supporting stock index futures on Friday. Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) is up over +32% in pre-market trading after the collaborative software maker posted stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and issued above-consensus FQ1 revenue guidance. Also, Cloudflare (NET) is up more than +16% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. In addition, Microchip Technology (MCHP) is up over +9% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor company reported better-than-expected FQ1 results and issued FQ2 guidance that smashed Wall Street’s estimates.

WTI crude prices are little changed as investors await updates from Iran-Oman talks on managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is reportedly seeking to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz under a proposed agreement with Oman, while also demanding compensation from “hostile” nations before allowing passage. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran are “moving along.”

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed in the red. Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) cratered over -23% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the aerospace and defense supplier posted downbeat Q2 results and cut its full-year organic growth guidance. Also, AppLovin (APP) tumbled more than -19% after the ad technology platform reported weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and gave soft Q3 revenue guidance. In addition, Western Digital (WDC) plunged over -13% after the storage maker issued good but not great FQ1 guidance, failing to meet investors’ lofty expectations. On the bullish side, Motorola Solutions (MSI) climbed more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week ticked up to 199K, remaining below 200K for a third consecutive week and highlighting the labor market’s resilience. Economists had expected the figure to rise to 203K. Also, U.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity rose +1.4% q/q, stronger than expectations of +0.6% q/q, while unit labor costs rose +1.3% q/q, less than expectations of +2.2% q/q. In addition, U.S. June wholesale inventories were revised lower to +0.2% m/m from the preliminary estimate of +0.3% m/m.

“The labor market is holding up well in the face of elevated interest rates and AI productivity gains. We are still seeing plenty of companies hold onto their labor force even as AI investments take hold,” according to Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that with inflation still above the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers cannot afford to accept higher inflation while awaiting the possibility of stronger productivity growth. “Against this backdrop, it is crucial that monetary policy put a meaningful restraint on underlying inflation, rather than tolerating somewhat higher inflation today to pursue productivity growth tomorrow,” Musalem said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 54.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike and a 45.3% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.

In tariff news, President Trump signed a proclamation on Thursday imposing a 15% tariff on imports of solar-energy materials and equipment. The levies will take effect on December 4th, 2026. Companies that commit to constructing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. can apply for exemptions from the tariffs, according to the proclamation.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate that July nonfarm payrolls will increase by 85K after the lower-than-expected 57K gain in June.

“A red-hot print could strengthen the case for a September rate hike, particularly with inflation still elevated. However, a disappointing report combined with last week’s weaker-than-expected gross domestic product growth could give the Fed more cover to remain on hold,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. Unemployment Rate. Economists anticipate that the jobless rate will remain steady at 4.2% in July.

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will be released today. Economists expect average hourly earnings to rise +0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y in July, matching June’s pace.

The Fed’s Consumer Credit report will be released today as well. Economists expect U.S. Consumer Credit to be $11.4 billion in June, compared to the previous figure of -$0.2 billion.

In addition, market watchers will scrutinize remarks today from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

On the earnings front, notable companies such as Vistra (VST), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), PPL Corporation (PPL), and Oklo (OKLO) are set to report their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +26% jump in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.67%, down -0.30%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.36% this morning, hitting a new record high. Healthcare stocks led the gains on Friday, with Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB.C.DX) climbing over +4% after a U.S. judge dismissed an antitrust lawsuit involving its blockbuster weight-loss drug. Also boosting the sector, Genmab A/S (GMAB.C.DX) surged more than +8% after the cancer drugmaker reported better-than-expected first-half revenue and raised its full-year guidance. The benchmark index is on track to end the week higher, supported by a string of upbeat corporate earnings reports. Data from the federal statistics office released on Friday showed that Germany’s monthly industrial production rose in June, adding to a string of resilient manufacturing data that indicates Europe’s largest economy has so far weathered the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. Separately, trade data showed that Germany’s monthly exports climbed in June, reaching an all-time high on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis. ING economist Carsten Brzeski said this confirms that net exports were the primary driver of growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, companies in the STOXX 600 are expected to post their strongest earnings growth since the third quarter of 2022 in Q2, according to data compiled by LSEG. Investor focus now shifts to the key monthly U.S. payrolls report due later in the day. In other corporate news, Kingspan Group Plc (KRX.I.DX) jumped over +17% after the building materials firm raised its full-year profit guidance.

Germany’s Industrial Production, Exports, and Imports data were released today.

The German June Industrial Production rose +0.2% m/m, in line with expectations.

The German June Exports rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

The German June Imports rose +4.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.02%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.12%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as solid trade data from the country boosted sentiment. Biotechnology, rare earth, and telecommunication stocks led the gains on Friday. The benchmark index posted solid gains for the week. Customs data released on Friday showed that China’s export growth remained robust in July, marking a second straight month of gains exceeding 20%, amid persistently strong global demand for AI products. Exports of semiconductors in the first seven months of the year nearly doubled in value from a year earlier. “Export growth continued to support the economy in July. I expect exports to remain strong in the third quarter,” said Zhiwei Zhang at Pinpoint Asset Management. Imports also surged last month, though at a slower pace than in June, and were roughly in line with economists’ expectations. Investor focus now turns to China’s July inflation data, scheduled for release on Sunday. Economists expect China’s consumer inflation to moderate further, partly due to unfavorable base effects from higher nonfood prices a year earlier, while producer inflation is forecast to ease after accelerating for three straight months, as lower coal and ferrous-metal prices drag on producer goods prices. A weaker-than-expected CPI reading would likely strengthen calls for more forceful policy support and could place greater focus on the “effective and practical new measures” pledged by the Politburo for the September-October period.

The Chinese July Trade Balance came in at $112.5 billion, stronger than expectations of $108.6 billion.

The Chinese July Exports surged +23.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +22.2% y/y.

The Chinese July Imports jumped +27.5% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +27.9% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly lower today as concerns over the AI trade persisted. Chip and other AI-related stocks slid on Friday, with memory chipmaker Kioxia Holdings and chip-testing equipment maker Advantest falling over -2%. Also, market heavyweight SoftBank Group dropped more than -2% even after it reported a smaller-than-expected 18% decline in its FQ1 profit. “It beat market consensus, but failed to provide cues that could lift the stock price,” said Naoki Fujiwara at Shinkin Asset Management. Limiting losses, energy, healthcare, and industrial stocks advanced. The benchmark index notched a solid weekly gain. Meanwhile, Japan’s two-year government bond yield climbed to a 31-year high on Friday as expectations of an early Bank of Japan rate hike increased amid the yen’s recent weakness. The Japanese currency has given up nearly half of its intervention-driven gains this week. On the economic front, data released on Friday showed that Japan’s annual household spending unexpectedly fell for a seventh straight month in June even as real wages continued to rise, highlighting the impact of persistent inflation on consumer sentiment. Separately, preliminary data showed that Japan’s leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, remained at a nearly five-year high in June. In other corporate news, Fujikura surged over +12% after the fibre-optic cable maker raised its full-year net profit guidance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.34% to 29.88.

The Japanese June Household Spending fell -6.4% m/m and -3.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y.

The Japanese June Leading Index stood at 116.4, weaker than expectations of 116.5.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) popped over +32% in pre-market trading after the collaborative software maker posted stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and issued above-consensus FQ1 revenue guidance.

Cloudflare (NET) jumped over +16% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) soared more than +11% in pre-market trading after the software and cloud technology company posted stronger-than-expected Q2 results.

Microchip Technology (MCHP) climbed more than +9% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor company reported better-than-expected FQ1 results and issued FQ2 guidance that smashed Wall Street’s estimates.

Other chip and AI infrastructure stocks advanced in pre-market trading following Microchip Technology’s results, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising over +3% and Micron Technology (MU) gaining more than +2%.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - August 7th

Vistra (VST), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), PPL Corporation (PPL), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Oklo Inc. (OKLO), Fluor (FLR), Mobility Global (MBGL), Essent Group (ESNT), Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), Construction Partners (ROAD), ACM Research (ACMR), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), Telephone and Data Systems (TDS), Calumet (CLMT), Array Digital Infrastructure (AD), Immunome (IMNM), Under Armour (UA), Under Armour (UAA), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Spectrum Brands Holdings (SPB), Interface (TILE), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP), Trulieve Cannabis (TRLV), Global Partners LP (GLP), Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP), Sylvamo (SLVM), The Wendy's Company (WEN), Dauch (DCH), Biglari Holdings (BH), Biglari Holdings (BH.A), Saul Centers (BFS), Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA).