Stocks Climb on a Resilient US Labor Market

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.10%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.28%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.15%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today on signs of a resilient US labor market, after Dec nonfarm payrolls rose less than expected, while the unemployment rate declined and average hourly earnings rose more than expected.  US housing news was also mixed, as October housing starts unexpectedly fell to a 5.5-year low, while building permits rose more than expected.  Also, some short covering in stocks is lifting prices ahead of a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs later today. 

Home builders and home building suppliers are rallying today after President Trump late Thursday called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds in an attempt to lower longer-term rates and spur housing demand. 

US stocks have carryover support from rallies in global equity markets.  Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a new record high today, and China’s Shanghai Composite Stock Index rallied to a 10.5-year high.

Higher bond yields today are negative for stocks after the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 4-week high of 4.20%. 

US Dec nonfarm payrolls rose +50,000, weaker than expectations of +70,000.  Also, Nov nonfarm payrolls were revised lower to +56,000 from the previously reported +64,000.  The Dec unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 4.4%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 4.5%.

US Dec average hourly earnings rose +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.6% y/y.

US Oct housing starts unexpectedly fell -4.6% m/m to a 5.5-year low of 1.246 million, weaker than expectations of 1.330 million.  Oct building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -0.2% to 1.412 million, stronger than expectations of 1.350 million. 

The market’s focus this week will be on US economic news.  Later this morning, the University of Michigan's Jan consumer sentiment index is expected to climb by +0.6 points to 53.5. 

The markets are discounting the odds at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are moving higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new record high and is up +1.15%.  China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 10.5-year high and closed up +0.92%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.61%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.6 bp to 4.193%.  Mar T-notes fell to a 4-week low today, and the 10-yer T-note yield rose to a 4-week high of 4.203%.  T-notes are moving lower today due to strength in stocks.  Also, today’s mixed US payroll report reduces the chance of a near-term Fed rate cut after the Dec unemployment rate ticked lower and average hourly earnings rose more than expected, hawkish factors for Fed policy. Rising inflation expectations are also bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1.5-month high today at 2.296%.

Losses in T-notes are limited after President Trump late Thursday called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds in an attempt to lower longer-term rates and spur housing demand. 

European government bond yields were mixed on Thursday.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.1 bp to 2.862%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 1.75-month low of 4.392% and is down -0.3 bp to 4.401%.

Eurozone Nov retail sales rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and Oct retail sales were revised upward to +0.3% m/m from the previously reported unchanged m/m.

German Nov industrial production unexpectedly rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.7% m/m.

ECB Governing Council member Dimitar Radev said, "The current level of interest rates can be assessed as appropriate in terms of the available information and the inflation outlook."

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

Home builders and building suppliers are climbing today after President Trump called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds in an attempt to lower longer-term rates and spur housing demand. Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is up more than +6%, and Lennar (LEN), PulteGroup (PHM), and DR Horton (DHI) are up more than +4%.  Also, Toll Brothers (TOL) and KB Home (KBH) are up more than +3%.

Power producers are soaring today after Meta Platforms agreed to a series of electricity deals for its data centers.  Oklo (OKLO) is up more than +15%, and Vistra (VST) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, NuScale Power (SMR) is up more than +9%, and Constellation Energy (CEG) is up more than +4%.

Insmed Inc (INSM) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after announcing it expects 2026 global ARIKAYCE revenues between $450 million and $470 million, above 2025 guidance of $433.8 million. 

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is up more than +6% after the Financial Times reported that Merck & Co is in talks to buy the company.

Rocket Cos (RKT) is up more than +6% after President Trump said he was directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +3% after JPMorgan Chase double-upgraded the stock to overweight from underweight with a price target of $60. 

Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up more than +3% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $605.

FedEx (FDX) is up more than +2% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $365.

WD-40 Co. (WDFC) is down more than -11% after reporting Q1 EPS of $1.28, weaker than the consensus of $1.45.

AXT Inc (AXTI) is down more than -5% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $22.5 million to $23.5 million, well below the consensus of $28.8 million.  

Olin Corp (OLN) is down more than -5% after cutting its Q4 adjusted Ebitda forecast to $67 million from a prior forecast of $110 million to $139 million, well below the consensus of $121.1 million. 

HealthEquity (HQY) is down more than -3% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $89.

Qualcomm (QCOM) is down more than -2% after Mizuho Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform and lowered its price target to $175 from $200.

Mattel (MAT) is down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Earnings Reports(1/9/2026)

None.