Estée Lauder Stock: Analyst Estimates & Ratings

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), headquartered in New York, manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. Valued at $31.5 billion by market cap, the company's products are sold through department stores, mass retailers, company-owned retail stores, hair salons, and travel-related establishments. 

Shares of this global leader in prestige beauty have underperformed the broader market over the past year. EL has declined 4.4% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 22.6%. In 2026, EL’s stock is down 17%, compared to the SPX’s 12.8% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, EL’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 5.3% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 10.7% returns on a YTD basis outshine EL’s losses over the same time frame.

Estée Lauder continues to underperform the broader market as Wall Street remains wary of its prolonged turnaround process. Top-line growth has been hampered by sluggish post-pandemic recovery in Asian travel retail and soft demand in Mainland China, which are historically core profit drivers for the group. At the same time, sticky cost structures, supply chain friction, and significant restructuring charges under its "Profit Recovery and Growth Plan" have compressed margins. With net earnings falling significantly faster than revenues over the last three years, investor sentiment remains cautious despite management's strategic efforts to realign its brand portfolio and cut costs.

For the current fiscal year, ended in June, analysts expect EL’s EPS to grow 59.6% to $2.41 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.

Among the 26 analysts covering EL stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 15 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”

This configuration is less bullish than a month ago, with 10 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

On Jul. 28, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) kept a “Hold” rating on EL and raised the price target to $88, implying a potential upside of 1.2% from current levels. 

The mean price target of $93.61 represents a 7.6% premium to EL’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $125 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 64.9%.