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Commentary
Corn finished with a 5-cent loss with no change in the bearish weather forecast for the major production areas of the central and eastern Midwest, but the Plains and northwest Midwest crop areas could remain under moisture stress with limited chances over the next week. Forecasts going forward look to bring moisture to these same areas and work some into the Eastern SD over the 6-to-10-day forecast. The US production side will continue to be debated up to and through the Aug WASDE next week, but corn demand continues to be robust on the other side of the balance sheet. There was a morning flash sale of 120,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning but only 30,000 was for new crop and 90,000 was for the 2027/28 season. December corn tested this week's lows at 458 but was not able to take out that level today. Bullish news this morning regarding the French crop at a 50-year low and total EU corn production down 20% year-over-year, along with record high US exports for the month of June, are being offset by the yield bumps for now. The market remains range bound and unless we see a surprise change in the weather outlook that takes rain out of the forecast in my opinion. Outside of that look for a sideways chop to potentially continue into the next crop report on Wednesday August 12th. No trade recs today.
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Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
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