Markets bet on whether the unemployment rate (U-3) will be above 4.6% in November

Kalshi has reported 12,193 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in November?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 18% chance for "Above 4.6%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 18% probability.

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.6% in November 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 59,159 transactions since it was first opened on November 08, 2025. There are 39,568 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 6,480,404 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

• Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 647900)
• Who will be elected President of Honduras in 2025? (24h volume: 389675)
• Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair? (24h volume: 217796)
• Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump Administration this year? (24h volume: 127912)
• Will the Fed cut rates 2 times? (24h volume: 113335)
• Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 89205)
• Will above 75000 jobs be added in November 2025? (24h volume: 65158)
• Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2025? (24h volume: 54812)
• Will legislation extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 54806)
• Nicolás Maduro out this year? (24h volume: 53999)