Stock Indices Rally on Strong Tech Earnings and US-Iran Peace Hopes

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.13%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.55%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +2.21%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +1.20%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +2.30%.

Stock indices are climbing today, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials posting new all-time highs and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 2.5-week high.  Strength in technology stocks is leading the broader market higher on some better-than-expected earnings results.  Palantir Technologies is up more than +27% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 revenue and raising its full-year revenue forecast.  Also, Zebra Technologies is up more than +19% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 EPS and raising its full-year EPS forecast.  In addition, Caterpillar is up more than +5% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS that was well above the consensus.

Stocks also have support as a plunge in crude oil prices eases inflation fears and pushes bond yields lower.  Crude prices gave up an overnight advance and turned sharply lower as the prospect of a deal between the US and Iran appears to be gaining traction after Qatar said a potential agreement to revive talks between the US and Iran has been drafted. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4 bp to 4.64%

On the negative side for stocks, today’s US economic news was weaker than expected.  June factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. Also, June factory orders ex-transportation unexpectedly fell -0.4% m/m versus expectations of +0.4% m/m and the biggest decline in 14 months.  In addition, June JOLTS job openings fell -178,000 to 7.359 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 7.454 million. 

The US June trade deficit was -$73.3 billion, slightly larger than expectations of -$73.0 billion and a negative factor for Q2 GDP.

Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) are down more than -4% today at a 3-week low after a Qatari spokesman said a proposed resolution “is being circulated between the US and Iran,” cautioning that a deal has not yet been reached.  Crude prices extended their losses today when Treasury Secretary Bessent said: “There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait.”  Also, the key Saudi export port of Yanbu in the Red Sea had its busiest day on Monday since Houthi rebels began attacking shipping in the region, as more ships transited through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.

President Trump has threatened Iran with renewed air strikes and stressed that his latest offer of talks is Iran’s “last chance” as he demanded full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  A diplomatic resolution is hanging on talks between Oman and Iran to get more ships moving through the strait, but Iran continues to insist on its authority over the waterway. 

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.  So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 322 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. 

The markets are discounting a 59% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new all-time high and is up +0.83%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.33%.  Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.32%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +11 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.5 bp to 4.641%.  T-notes recovered from overnight losses and pushed higher today after crude oil prices turned lower.  WTI crude oil is down more than -4% today at a 3-week low, lowering inflation expectations. T-notes added to their gains today on weaker-than-expected US economic reports, including June JOLTS job openings and June factory orders.  Today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high is limiting gains in T-notes.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 3-week low of 3.102% and is down -3.7 bp to 3.114%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 3-week low of 4.908% and is down -3.7 bp to 4.916%.

Markets are discounting an 85% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are rallying today, boosting the overall market.  The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index ($SOX) is up more than +5% at a 1-week high.  ARM Holdings (ARM) is up more than +12%, and Marvel Technology (MRVL) is up more than +10%.  Also, Sandisk (SNDK) and Intel (INTC) are up more than +8%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +7%.  In addition, Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +6%, and KLA Corp (KLAC), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Lam Research (LRCX), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +5%.  Finally, Applied Materials (AMAT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Analog Devices (ADI), and Broadcom (AVGO) are up more than +4%. 

Energy stocks and service providers are under pressure today, with WTI crude oil down more than -4% at a 3-week low.  Diamondback Energy (FANG) is down more than -3%, and APA Corp (APA) is down more than -2%.  Also, Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), and Devon Energy (DVN) are down more than -1%.

Ameresco (AMRC) is up more than +29% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $1.15 to $1.35 from a previous estimate of $1.06 to $1.28, stronger than the consensus of $1.10. 

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +27% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion, better than the consensus of $1.81 billion, and raising its full-year revenue estimate to $8.15 to $8.16 billion from a previous estimate of $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion. 

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) is up more than +21% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $6.35, well above the consensus of $4.37, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $20.75 to $21.25 from a previous forecast of $$18.30 to $18.70.

Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) is up more than +13% after reporting Q2 sales of $574 million, better than the consensus of $542.7 million. 

Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) is up more than +8% after reporting Q4 revenue of $2.22 billion, stronger than the consensus of $2.17 billion.

Caterpillar (CAT) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $8.17, well above the consensus of $6.17. 

Bruker Corp. (BRKR) is down more than -16% after reporting Q2 revenue of $838.5 million, weaker than the consensus of $853.6 million.

Aptiv Plc (APTV) is down more than -14% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.30 billion, weaker than the consensus of $3.32 billion, and cutting its full-year net sales forecast to $12.60 billion to $12.80 billion from a previous forecast of $12.80 billion to $13.20 billion. 

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc (CCEP) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of 5.72 billion euros, right on the consensus.

Powell Industries (POWL) is down more than -3% after reporting Q3 EPS of $1.42, weaker than the consensus of $1.45. 

Duolingo (DUOL) is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $93. 

Nike (NKE) is down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $40.

Earnings Reports (8/4/2026)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), AMETEK Inc (AME), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Apollo Global Management Inc (APO), Aptiv PLC (APTV), Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM), Arista Networks Inc (ANET), Assurant Inc (AIZ), Ball Corp (BALL), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Caterpillar Inc (CAT), Cummins Inc (CMI), DaVita Inc (DVA), Devon Energy Corp (DVN), Duke Energy Corp (DUK), DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), EOG Resources Inc (EOG), Expeditors International of Washingtom (EXPD), Fidelity National Information (FIS), Gartner Inc (IT), Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD), Healthpeak Properties Inc (DOC), Henry Schein Inc (HSIC), IDEXX Laboratories Inc (IDXX), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Jacobs Solutions Inc (J), Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB), Kimco Realty Corp (KIM), Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS), Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC), McDonald's Corp (MCD), Merck & Co Inc (MRK), Mosaic Co/The (MOS), NRG Energy Inc (NRG), Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY), Pfizer Inc (PFE), Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW), Prudential Financial Inc (PRU), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Qnity Electronics Inc (Q), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK), Sysco Corp (SYY), TransDigm Group Inc (TDG), Waters Corp (WAT), WW Grainger Inc (GWW), Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN), Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA).