Stocks Supported by Fed Rate-Cut Optimism

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +0.60%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.62%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.70%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.59%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.69%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials posting 1.5-week highs.  Strength in semiconductor stocks today is lifting the overall market.

Also, optimism about a Fed rate cut is boosting stocks heading into Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day holiday.  Market sentiment has improved this week, as bond yields have fallen amid weak US economic news and dovish Fed comments, strengthening the case for a rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting.  The chance of a Fed rate cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting has risen to 80% from 30% last week.

Stocks also received support from today’s US economic news, which bolstered optimism about the economic outlook after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low and Sep capital goods new orders, a proxy for capital spending, rose more than expected. 

US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.2% in the week ended November 21, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +7.6% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -5.7%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +3 bp to 6.40% from 6.37% in the prior week.

US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -6,000 to a 7-month low of 216,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 225,000.

US Sep capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled its October consumer price report last Friday and said the November report will be released on December 18.  Last Wednesday, the BLS said it would not publish an October employment report and noted that it would incorporate those payroll figures into the November report, scheduled for publication on December 16. 

The markets are discounting an 80% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 475 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.06%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.15%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.85%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are down by -5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.9 bp to 4.025%.  Today’s strength in stocks is weighing on T-note prices.  Also, supply pressures are negative for T-notes, as the Treasury will auction $44 billion of 7-year T-notes to conclude this week’s $211 billion in T-notes and floating-rate note auctions.  T-notes remained lower after US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low, a sign of labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy.

European government bond yields are mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield rebounded from a 1.5-week low of 2.660% and is up +1.1 bp to 2.683%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.419% and is down -2.1 bp to 4.473%.

ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said risks to economic growth and inflation in the Eurozone are balanced, and "for the time being," interest rates are in a good place.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Strength in chip makers is a supportive factor for the overall market.  ASML Holding NV (ASML) is up more than +4%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +2%.  Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Analog Devices (ADI), Lam Research (LRCX), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and ON Semiconductor (ON) are up more than +1%. 

Urban Outfitters (URBN) is up more than +12% after reporting Q3 net sales of $1.53 billion, better than the consensus of $1.49 billion.

Autodesk (ADSK) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 billings of $1.86 billion, above the consensus of $1.84 billion, and raising its 2025 billings estimate to $7.47 billion-$7.53 billion from a previous estimate of $7.36 billion-$7.45 billion, stronger than the consensus of $7.41 billion. 

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than +6% after announcing it has bought a majority stake in LedgerX, a US-based derivatives exchange, giving Robinhood access to the prediction markets.

Oscar Health (OSCR) is up more than +6% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $25. 

Dell Technologies (DELL) is up more than +2% after raising its 2026 revenue forecast to $112.2 billion-$112.2 billion from a previous forecast of $105 billion-$109 billion, stronger than the consensus of $107.94 billion. 

Amentum Holdings (AMTM) is up more than +1% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to equal weight from underweight. 

Nutanix (NTNX) is down more than -17% after reporting Q1 revenue of $670.6 million, weaker than the consensus of $676.6 million, and cutting its 2026 revenue forecast to $2.82 billion-$2.86 billion from a previous forecast of $2.90 billion-$2.94 billion, well below the consensus of $2.92 billion. 

Ambarella (AMBA) is down more than -13% after forecasting Q4 adjusted gross margin of 59% to 60.5%, below the consensus of 60.6%. 

Zscaler (ZS) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 revenue of $3.28 billion-$3.30 billion, only slightly above the consensus of $3.28 billion. 

Workday (WDAY) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 subscription revenue of $2.24 billion, right on consensus. 

Deere & Co (DE) is down more than -3% after forecasting 2026 net income of $4.00 billion to $4.75 billion, well below the consensus of $5.31 billion. 

HP Inc (HPQ) is down more than -2% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.90 to $3.20, weaker than the consensus of $3.32. 

Earnings Reports(11/26/2025)

Deere & Co (DE).