Stocks Rebound as Fed’s Wiliams Sees Room for a Rate Cut

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +0.29%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.21%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.32%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.24%.

Stock index futures recovered from overnight losses and are moving higher as short covering emerged on comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said he sees room for a Fed rate cut in the “near term." His remarks also pushed up the chance for a Fed rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting to 68% from 35% on Thursday.

Stock indexes have sold off sharply this week as technology stocks and Bitcoin remain under pressure, with Bitcoin falling another -3% today to a 7.25-month low.  Concerns remain about lofty valuations in tech stocks, doubts over whether artificial intelligence spending will pay off, and fading prospects for a Fed rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting.  The markets will watch for any additional technical selling today as the S&P 500 broke below both the 50- and 100-day moving averages on Thursday.

Stocks and bonds garnered support today from dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said "he still sees room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral," as downside risks to employment have increased while upside risks to inflation have eased. 

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that holding interest rates steady would be "appropriate for now" as inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.

The price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is down by more than -3% today to a 7.25-month low, as market sentiment toward cryptocurrencies remains poor.  Bitcoin remains in a sharp 6-week-long downtrend, with prices down more than 35% from a record high last month. 

This week’s US economic schedule is very heavy as a deluge of delayed economic reports will be released.  Today brings the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index, and the Kansas City Fed’s services activity report.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that it will not publish an October employment report and noted it will incorporate those payroll figures into the November report set to be published on December 16.  Other delayed US economic reports are also expected to be released in the coming days, but have not yet been scheduled.

The markets are discounting a 68% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 466 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 1.75-month low and is down -0.70%.  China’s Shanghai Composite dropped to a 1.25-month low and closed down -2.45%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -2.40%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up by +12 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.5 bp to 4.059%.  Dec T-notes rallied to a 3-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-week low of 4.034%.  T-notes moved higher today on dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said he sees room for another Fed interest rate cut in the “near term.”  Also, easing inflation expectations are supportive of T-notes, as today's 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 6.5-month low of 2.239%.  T-notes fell back from their best level after Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that holding interest rates steady would be "appropriate for now."

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 2.671% and is down -2.3 bp to 2.693%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.8 bp to 4.547%.

The Eurozone Nov S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 49.7, weaker than expectations of an increase to 50.1 and the steepest pace of contraction in 5 months.  The Nov S&P composite PMI fell -0.1 to 52.4, weaker than expectations of no change at 52.5.

UK Oct retail sales ex-auto fuel fell -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and the biggest decline in 5 months.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said, "The Eurozone economy is performing better than we expected just three or four months ago," and the current level of interest rates is "appropriate."

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Home builders and building suppliers are moving higher today after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-week low, which is supportive of housing demand.  DR Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), and Builders FirstSource (BLDR) are up more than +3%.  Also, PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are up more than +2%.

Weakness in chip makers and AI infrastructure stocks is limiting gains in the broader market.  Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500.   Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Lam Research (LRCX), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are down more than -1%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers are falling today with the price of WTI crude oil down more than -2% to a 4-week low.  Halliburton (HAL), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are down more than -1%.

Enviri Corp (NVRI) is up more than +35% after Veolia agreed to buy Enviri’s US hazardous waste firm Clean Earth for $3 billion. 

Azenta Inc (AZTA) is up more than +10% after reporting Q4 revenue from continuing operations of $159 million, above the consensus of $156.4 million.

Gap (GAP) is up more than +7% after reporting Q3 total comparable sales rose +5%, stronger than the consensus of +3.11%. 

Intuit (INTU) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 net revenue of $3.89 billion, better than the consensus of $3.76 billion. 

Ross Stores (ROST) is up more than +5% after reporting Q3 sales of $5.60 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.41 billion, and forecasting Q4 comparable sales of +3% to +4%, better than the consensus of +2.61%. 

Veeva Systems (VEEV) is down more than -10% afterreporting Q3 adjusted gross margin of 77.6%, below the consensus of 77.8%. 

Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI) is down more than -5% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight. 

Copart (CPRT) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.16 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.18 billion.

T-Mobile US (TMUS) is down more than -1% after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.

Earnings Reports(11/21/2025)

Azenta Inc (AZTA), Barnes & Noble Education Inc (BNED), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ), Buckle Inc/The (BKE), IES Holdings Inc (IESC), Moog Inc (MOG/A), New Fortress Energy Inc (NFE), Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV).