The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down by -0.51%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.86%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.90%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are down -0.54%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.90%.
US stock indexes today extended Monday’s slide, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq 100 falling to 1-month lows. The weakness in technology stocks is weighing on the overall market, with Amazon.com and Microsoft down more than -1% after being downgraded by Rothschild & Co Redburn. Also, Home Depot is down more than -3% after cutting its full-year earnings guidance and warning that consumers are cutting back on big-ticket home improvement purchases. Concerns about lofty tech valuations are also weighing on stocks.
Stock indexes recovered from their worst levels after signs of weakness in the US labor market knocked T-note yields lower and bolstered the outlook for the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. The 10-year T-note yield fell -4 bp to 4.09% after ADP reported that US employers shed 2,500 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended November 1.
US weekly initial unemployment claims were 232,000 for the week ended October 18. Weekly continuing claims rose +10,000 to a 2-month high of 1.957 million.
The markets are looking ahead to Nvidia’s earnings report after Wednesday’s close for further information on the AI outlook. Also, earnings from Walmart and Target this week will provide insight into the health of consumer spending.
This week’s US economic schedule is very heavy as a deluge of delayed economic reports will be released. Today brings the ADP weekly employment report, the NY Fed’s US business leaders survey, industrial production, Nov NAHB housing index, Aug factory orders, and Aug durable goods orders. Wednesday brings MBA weekly mortgage applications, Aug trade balance, and the Oct FOMC meeting minutes. Thursday brings weekly unemployment claims, the Sep unemployment report, the Philadelphia Fed report, Oct existing home sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Friday brings real earnings, the S&P US manufacturing and services PMI reports, the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index, and the Kansas City Fed’s services activity report. Other delayed US economic reports are also expected to be released in the coming days, but have not yet been scheduled.
The markets are discounting a 48% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 460 of the 500 S&P companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y.
Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 1-month low and is down -1.72%. China’s Shanghai Composite slid to a 1.5-week low and closed down -0.81%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 plunged to a 3-1/2 week low and closed down sharply by -3.22%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up by +10 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.3 bp to 4.096%. T-note prices are climbing today as weakness in stocks has boosted safe-haven demand for government debt. Also, signs of labor market weakness are supportive of bonds after ADP reported that US employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ended November 1. In addition, easing inflation expectations are bullish for T-note prices as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 3.5-week low today at 2.272%.
European government bond yields are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.5 bp to 2.687%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.7 bp at 4.528%.
Swaps are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.
US Stock Movers
Magnificent Seven stocks are generally weaker today, a negative factor for the overall market. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) are down more than -1% after Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded the stocks to neutral from buy. Also, Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) are down more than -1%. In addition, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down -0.41%. Apple (AAPL) is bucking the trend, up 0.16%.
Chip stocks are sliding today and weighing on the broader market. Marvell Technology (MRVL) is down more than -2%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), Intel (INTC), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are down more than -1%.
Home Depot (HD) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials index after reporting Q3 comparable sales rose +0.2%, weaker than the consensus of +1.36%, and cutting its full-year operating margin estimate to 12.6% from a previous estimate of 13.0%, below the consensus of 13.3%.
Cloudflare (NET) is down more than -2% after it said it is facing global network issues, with Downdetector reporting nearly 5,000 outages worldwide.
Honeywell International (HON) is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research double-downgraded the stock to underperform from buy.
Nuvalent (NUVL) is down more than -1% after announcing it has commenced an underwritten public offering of $500 million of Class A common stock.
Amer Sports (AS) is up more than 6% after reporting Q3 revenue of $1.76 billion, beating the consensus of $1.72 billion, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to +23% to +24% from a previous forecast of +20% to +21%.
Medtronic Plc (MDT) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 revenue of $8.96 billion, above the consensus of $8.87 billion.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +4% after announcing plans to restore large-scale production at its Grasberg operations in Indonesia.
Merck & Co. (MRK) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after saying its Winrevair drug met the primary endpoint in a Phase 2 study for adults with combined post- and precapillary pulmonary hypertension due to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) is up more than +2% after Akzo Nobel announced a merger with the company.
Barrick Mining (B) is up more than +1% after the Financial Times reported that Elliot Management has built up a “large” stake in the company.
Earnings Reports(11/18/2025)
AECOM (ACM), Amer Sports Inc (AS), BellRing Brands Inc (BRBR), Dolby Laboratories Inc (DLB), Home Depot Inc/The (HD), Medtronic PLC (MDT), PDD Holdings Inc (PDD).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
