Stocks Settle Mixed as Fed Comments Suggest a Rate Cut Pause

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.65%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.06%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) fell -0.02%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose up +0.10%.

US stock indexes on Friday recovered from early losses and settled mixed after the Magnificent Seven technology stocks recovered from early losses and traded mixed.  Also, strength in energy producers was positive for the overall market, as WTI crude oil prices rose by more than +2%.

Stocks initially extended Thursday's sell-off on Friday amid concerns about a hawkish Fed pivot.  Doubts over a Fed interest rate cut next month have fueled jitters about stretched valuations of AI-infrastructure and semiconductor stocks and sparked long liquidation in stocks and risk-off sentiment in asset markets. 

The chances of a Fed rate cut at December's FOMC meeting have dropped to 43% on Friday from 70% last week, after a parade of Fed officials this week expressed skepticism about the need for additional rate cuts, citing the economy's resilience and lingering uncertainty about inflation. 

Hawkish Fed comments on Friday also bolstered the outlook for the Fed to refrain from cutting interest rates at next month's FOMC meeting.  Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said, "I don't think further cuts in interest rates will do much to patch over any cracks in the labor market but could have longer-lasting effects on inflation as our commitment to our 2% objective increasingly comes into question." Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, "I think it would be hard to support another rate cut unless we were to get convincing evidence that inflation is really coming down faster than my expectations or that we were seeing more than the gradual cooling that we've been seeing in the labor market."

Weak economic news from China on Friday added to concerns about global growth prospects and weighed on stocks.  China's Oct industrial production rose +4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.5% y/y and the smallest increase in 14 months.  Also, China's Oct new home prices fell -0.45% m/m, the biggest decline in a year and the twenty-ninth consecutive month that new home prices have fallen. 

The price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) tumbled more than -4% to a 6.25-month low as the 5-week-long sell-off continues. Bitcoin has fallen by -24% from its record high last month amid heavy long liquidation pressure.  Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $870 million on Thursday, the second-largest daily withdrawal since trading in Bitcoin ETFs began.

On Wednesday, President Trump signed legislation that ended the longest US government shutdown in history.  The bill provides full-year funding for some departments, funds other agencies through January 30, and includes pay for furloughed government workers. The bill also resumes federal payments to states and localities and recalls agency employees who were laid off during the shutdown. 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the six-week government closure reduced real GDP growth in the current quarter by 1.5 percentage points.  However, more than half of the loss may be recovered early next year as federal programs resume and government employees receive back pay, according to the CBO.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday that it will release the September jobs report on Thursday, November 20, and the September real earnings report on Friday, November 21.  On Thursday, Economic Council Director Hassett said the October jobs report will be released without the unemployment rate.  The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have not yet released updated dates for retail sales and inflation-adjusted consumer spending. 

The markets are discounting a 43% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets settled lower on Friday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.85%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 10-year high and closed down -0.97%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.77%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today closed down by -7.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.7 bp to 4.146%.  T-notes were under pressure Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-week high of 4.150%.  Hawkish Fed comments on Friday undercut T-note prices.  Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued against a Fed rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. 

T-notes also have negative carryover from Thursday, when several Fed presidents cautioned against further rate cuts amid uncertainty over inflation, which knocked the chances for a rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting to 43% Friday from 70% last week.  

European government bond yields moved higher on Friday.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 5-week high of 2.720% and finished on that high.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 1-month high of 4.579% and finished up +13.7 bp to 4.574%.

Eurozone Q3 GDP was revised upward by +0.1 to +1.4% y/y from the previously reported +1.3% y/y.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks recovered from early losses and traded mixed, which helped the broader market recover. Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +1%.  Also, Tesla (TSLA) closed up +0.59%.  However, Amazon.com (AMZN) closed down more than -1%.  Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down -0.77%, Apple (AAPL) closed down -0.20%, and Meta Platforms (META) closed down -0.07%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers moved higher on Friday as WTI crude oil rose more than +2%.  Valero Energy (VLO) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) closed up more than +3%.  Also, Baker Hughes (BKR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Devon Energy (DVN), and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up more than +2%.  In addition, Halliburton (HAL), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Chevron (CVX) closed up more than +1%. 

Most semiconductor stocks were under pressure on Friday, weighing on the overall market.  Lam Research (LRCX) closed down more than -3%, and ON Semiconductor (ON), KLA Corp (KLAC), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed down more than -2%.  Also, Texas Instruments (TXN), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Analog Devices (ADI), and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -1%.   

Stubhub Holdings (STUB) closed down more than -20% after reporting a Q3 loss per share of -$4.27, wider than the consensus of -$2.49, and failed to provide a forecast for Q4. 

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) closed down more than -4% after ending a trial of its experimental drug milvexian to prevent strokes and blood clots following disappointing data.

Manitowoc (MTW) closed down more than -3% after Wells Fargo Securities initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of underweight, with a price target of $9. 

Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) closed up more than +105% after Merck & Co. agreed to acquire the company for about $9.2 billion or $221.50 a share. 

Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) closed up more than +22% after it said it received an unsolicited proposal from H. Lundbeck A/S to acquire it for $23 per share. 

DoorDash (DASH) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Needham & Co. said the recent pullback in the stock is a buying opportunity and maintained its buy rating with a price target of $275.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) closed up more than +4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix are preparing to bid for the company. 

Nubank (NU) closed up more than +1% after reporting Q3 total revenue of $4.17 billion, better than the consensus of $3.92 billion. 

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