Grain Spreads: WASDE Release

Please join me for a free grain webinar every Thursday at 3pm Central time. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now

Commentary

This week has featured short covering in corn and wheat ahead of our first WASDE report since early September. I’m not sure what to expect here as far as what the USDA will give us given the length of the shutdown. We may not get a accurate reading until the January 2026 report. In my view look for smaller revisions than anything aggressive. How will they get to an accurate reading on demand with the shutdown for one? Second, do we trust them to give an accurate reading on supply as to how crops finished. Some guesstimates per industry sources. Soybean carryout for this Friday’s WASDE has a wide trading range but the average trade estimate is mostly unchanged at 300 million bushels. Average yield estimate has national yield in the 53.1 bushel per acre area, which is .4 lower than the September estimate.  Average trade estimates for corn carryout were reported at 2.136 billion bushels and national corn yield was estimated 184 bushels per acre. Corn has a wider variance here of guesses as the estimate range for yield is 181.7 – 186. September’s yield was pegged at 186.7. KC & Chicago wheat both closed above their respective 100 day moving averages today, which could draw additional speculative short covering. Funds are estimated -36,000 contracts short in KC wheat and -66,000 contracts short in Chicago wheat. It is unlikely the wheat market receives much exciting news out of the WASDE on Friday in my opinion. Sov-Econ projected the Russian 2026 wheat crop at 83.8 MMT vs. last year’s estimate of 87.8 MMT as planted acres are forecasted to decrease. Good rains are forecasted in winter wheat growing areas in the Southern plains which should help early germination. I have a hunch that corns yield number closer to 186 than 184. In any event ending stocks are over 2 billion bushels. Report day play below.

Trade Ideas

Futures-N/A

Options-Buy the December corn 430 put for 2.4 cents plus commissions and fees. 

Risk/Reward

Futures-N/A

Options-the risk is the price paid for the puts at 2.4 cents or $125 plus trade costs and fees. The options expire on 11/21/25. Offer to sell the options at 12 cents for a 9.4 cent gain less commissions and fees. 

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now

Sean Lusk

Vice President Commercial Hedging Division

Walsh Trading

312 957 8103

888 391 7894 toll free

312 256 0109 fax

slusk@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading

311 S Wacker Drive Suite 540

Chicago, Il 60606

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices.PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.