Hogs Bounce Back

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December Lean Hogs gap opened higher at the session low at 80.00. It rallied the rest of the session to the high at 83.15 and then drifted into the close to settle near the high at 82.775. The tally stalled just below resistance at 83.325 and the low created a slight gap with Friday’s high the bottom of the gap at 79.975. In my opinion, the news that the government shutdown may end this week provided a relief to traders that demand will pick up for pork as we near the holiday season. The voting process could get tricky with the Senate voting into the night and if successful getting the House reps to Congress to vote could be problematic with flights being cancelled due to the shutdown. This could push the open into next week if delays prevent a vote. The indices are on a negative trajectory with both indices down on Monday. The morning cutout was strong however, helping take futures higher and the afternoon cutout was up which could lead to an increase in the index. With the shutdown potentially ending, we could get to see exports and how that impacted the cash prices. Slaughter was over 2,600,000 last week and was likely the strongest slaughter for the year so far and if slaughter remains at these levels, it could keep the pressure on Hogs. The rally however, retraced a little over 3-weeks of declines in one session which could spur more short-covering if we don’t get a quick turnaround on Tuesday. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance 83.325. Resistance then comes in at 85.325. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 81.70 and the nearby declining 21-DMA now at 81.675. Support then comes in at the flattening 13-DMA now at 80.825.

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 98.87 as of 11/07/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 90.05 as of 11/06/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 494,000, which is above last week’s 493,000 and last year’s 455,256.

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Ben DiCostanzo

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Walsh Trading, Inc.

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