Shootin' the Bull about a bear market rally

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​11/10/2025

Live Cattle:

A rally in a bear market?  I don't recall a day that was limit up during this years bull market.  I think it as likely for Tuesday to open higher and close lower as to open higher and close higher.  Regardless, moves recommended last week are believed paying dividends this week.  The attempt to capture open position equity, with a limited risk derivative, is helping to keep producers from feeling they may be missing out on a higher price move.  They may or may not be at the moment. With the recommendations of remaining net short, and having recommended ways to potentially capture open position equity, producers are believed in a good position to act, or react to the next boondoggle of news that comes by. Although I don't expect straight up, I do anticipate some test of the gap area between 10/24 and 10/27.  At this point, if reached, there may be some additional information that could have make a more informed decision. That would then dictate what to do next.  

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Feeder Cattle:

​The strength of today's move begins to void a pattern mentioned on the mid day cattle comment.  This rally is anticipated to be an opportunity to fix whatever positions you didn't like on the way down.  With basis wide, the price movement of futures can be really wide, and not much could be said about it.  So, know that current price action is not uncommon in commodity markets, or even the cattle market, it is simply the discovery of price at quantum speeds. For the moment, the basis remains at a spread that suggests if you want to buy cattle, the cheapest place is on the board, and if you want to sell cattle, the highest price is today in your sales arenas.  Basis converging more quickly with futures than cash, and cash seemingly have topped, I recommend you put pencil to paper and find out where you stand on your positions and see what you may need to do on a $10.00 plus higher opening on Tuesday, if anything.  The basis will still be wide if limit is reached on Tuesday, but exceptionally narrower than last week.  The unfortunate is that you are going to have to make decisions with the market having broken the bull market stance, exceptional price expanse, wide basis stance, and in extreme volatility.  It was difficult enough attempting to hedge on the way up, capturing the highest prices ever available at that time.  Now, marketing's are having to be made in a wide positive basis and no longer the cornering of the market, with expectations of when, not if, the southern border will reopen.  I recommend putting pencil to paper and see what needs to be done and at what prices you can live with making those marketing decisions.    

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​Corn:

Bulls geared up over the weekend with what appears to be a push to a new high in beans.  Corn wasn't left out as traders posted an outside day to the upside.  I anticipate both to climb a wall of worry.  Even wheat appears as if it has completed a wave 1 rally and in the workings of the wave 2 correction.  Upon belief the wave 2 is complete, I will be recommending buying July wheat.  ​​

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Energy:​

​Energy was mixed for most of the session with the products higher and crude oil finally getting plus on the day.  Energy didn't do a whole lot today.  The crude continues to build supplies with refining limitations keeping the products firm, especially diesel fuel. I am not bullish or bearish oil and with the fundamentals seemingly not directional for the complex, I may have to remain that way for awhile.  

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Bonds:

​Bonds were soft for most of the day.  Taking cues from other administrations, the Trump administration is looking to stimulate as much as possible to keep recession from trying to get a toehold.  I am unsure how this will impact bonds and at the moment, there appears as much stagflation and stag-recession as there is anything else. ​

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