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RICH MORAN                                                                                                       11/5/2025

MAR-MAY’26 Wheat-Spread (ZWH26-ZWK26)

We have been long (on paper) the DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat-Spread since back in July.  We have since then moved our stop to -18½ for a scratch. Today this spread settled -13¼ and our objective is -8½.  DEC’25 Wheat goes off the board next month, so I have been looking for a possible replacement spread.  I am now focused on the MAR-MAY’26 Wheat-Spread (ZWH26-ZWK26) as the replacement spread. 

ZWH26-ZWK26 settled today at -8½, almost 2 cents above the 14-day moving average (-10¼) and the 21-day moving average (-10½).  Because we are already long Wheat Spreads, we can be more patient trying to buy the ZWH26-ZWK26 Spread.  If the spread gets close to these moving averages while staying above them, I think it might be a good place to get long this Wheat Spread.  At this point, that would be around -11.  The 52-week low is -13½. 

If we are fortunate to get long ZWH26-ZWK26 at -11, I suggest risking 3 cents (price of -14) or $150 Per Spread to make 9 cents (price of -2) or $450 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

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Following up on the still active past trade ideas:

• 10/27/2025: ZLF26-ZLH26 (JAN-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread)

Today (11/5/25) the JAN-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread (ZLF26-ZLH26) settled at -0.53 below both the 14-day moving average that ended the day at -0.49 and the 21-day moving average that ended the day -0.47.

We are basing this trade on the current Fully-Carry levels.  Full Carry for the JAN ’26 Soybean Oil – (minus) MAR ’26 Soybean Oil Spread is 0.44 cents (or 44 – 100^ths of a cent).  Every tic represents 1/100^th of a cent and is worth $6.00. 

On Wednesday (10/29/25), the spread settled at -0.51 cents.  That was 115.9% of full carry.  So, we settled 15.9% above full carry.  This spread does go above full carry-on occasion and how far it will go we never know, but I believe the risk/reward for getting long ZLF226-ZLH26 at these levels might be something to try, using a fairly short stop below the 52-week low with the hope of a nice move up (less negative).

I am suggesting that if we can trade above and settle above these moving averages, we try to get long this spread.  We can pick our exact exit points when and if we are able to put this trade on.

• 10/24/2025: LEZ25-HEZ25 (DEC Live Cattle – DEC Live Hogs Spread)

Today this spread settled at 148.400, still below both the 14-day that ended the day at 152.650 and the 21-day that ended the day at 152.925.

Last month (9/5/25-9/10/25) we tracked selling OCT Live Cattle and buying OCT Lean Hogs against them. I call this the STORK trade …. STeak – (minus) pORK.  I think this trade could possibly be a safer way to slip some sales in the Live Cattle market into or position by hedging them with some buys in Lean Hog market.

On Friday (10/24//25), I said, “If the DEC-STORK opens on Monday below 155.700, which is below the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages, I suggest we try to sell it at 155.000 or better.  That is sell DEC Live Cattle and buy DEC Lean Hogs (LEZ25-HEZ25) at 155.00 or better.  If we are not able to sell it on the opening, continue to offer it at 155.000.”

10/29/2025 – I am adjusting these levels …. Tomorrow, lower our offer to 153.600 or better on the opening.  If we are not able to sell it on the opening, continue to offer it at 153.600. 

10/31/2025 – We are now offering the spread at 153.600.

Risk 6.000 (price of 159.600) or $2,400 Per Spread To Make 18.000 (price of 135.600) or $7,200 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

*** Today the December STORK settled 139.925, more than 13.000 away from our offer of 153.600.  We were absolutely correct about the direction of this spread, but we missed it and it has gotten away from us.  I suggest pulling your offer for now and we will keep an eye on it.

• 10/1/2025: SBH26-SBK26 (MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread)

Today’s settlement: .36, Long at .42

On 10/1/25 I said “I think it might be a good play to bid today’s settlement (42 cents) or better when the corn market opens.”

“If we get filled, risk 24 cents or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents or $560 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

On 10/2/25 the market opened at .41, so we are long at .42.

Risk 24 cents (price of .18) or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents (price of .92) or $560.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

• 9/24/25: KEZ25-ZWZ25 (DEC’25 Kansas City-Chicago Wheat Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -14¾, Long at -14½  

On 9/24/25, KEZ25-ZWZ25 settled -12¾.  

I suggested placing an offer to buy KEZ25-ZWZ25 at -14½ on 9/25/25.  The spread traded -15, so we are long at -14½.

Risking 8 cents (price of -22½) or $400 to make 24 cents (price of +9½) or $1,200 plus fees and commissions.

•          9/10/25: ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread)

 Today’s settlement: -14¼, Long at -17½  

On Wednesday (9/10/25) I suggested that if the ZCZ25-ZCH26 opens at -17½ (Wednesday’s settlement) or higher, trying to get long the spread (buying Dec25-Corn versus selling Mar’26-Corn) at -17½.   

The spread opened at -17½ and traded lower, so we are long at -17½.  

We were risking 2 cents (price of -19½) or $100 Per Spread to make 6 cents (price of -11½) or $300 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

On Friday (10/17/25) I raised our stop to -17½ for a scratch.  I hate to turn a winner into a loser.

On Wednesday (10/22/25) we raised our stop another 2 cents to -15½ for a 2 cents winner.  This was our original risk on this trade.

So now we are looking to make 2 cents ($100 Per Spread) at -15½ or to make 6 cents ($300 Per Spread) at -11½, plus fees and commissions.

Yesterday, (10/30/2025) we reached our objective of -11½.  It traded heavily there and we would have had our resting offer in since 9/12/2025.  That would have given us a profit of $300 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

• 8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -30¾, Long at -40¼  

On Friday (10/3/25) I said, “yesterday (10/2/25) this spread, ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread), settled above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages at -39.  I suggest buying the spread at -39 or better when the Soybean market opens.  If you do not get filled on the opening, work a -39 bid.”

On Monday (10/3/25) the spread opened at -40½, so we are long at -40¼.  

I said to risk 4 cents (price of -44¼) or $200 to make 12 cents (price of -28¼) or $600 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

On Wednesday (10/22/25) I said “we are only risking 4 cents on this trade and we have a 4¼ cent lead on the trade so we are raising our stop to -40¼ for a scratch.  I hate to turn a winner into a loser.

Now we are risking a scratch at -40¼ to make 12 cents ($600) at -28¼, plus fees and commissions.

*** On Tuesday (10/28/25) ZSF26-ZSN26 traded up to -27, so we would have been filled at -28¼ and reach our objective on this trade.  We would have made 12 cents or $600 Per Spread.

• 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -14½, Long at -17½   

The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25.  You would be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.

Risking 3½ cents (price of -21) or $175 to make 9½ cents (price of -8) or $475 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

*** November Soybeans go off the board on Friday (11/14/2025), so I suggest selling out this spread (ZSX25-ZSF26) when the market opens.

• 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -13¼, Long at -18½

We were risking 3½ cents (price of -22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (price of -8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

Today (10/31/25) I am lowering our stop to -18½ for a scratch.  I never like to turn a winner into a loser.

So now we are risking a scratch (price of -18½) To Make 10 cents (price of -8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.com

Direct: (312)985-0298

Cell: (773)502-5321

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