Stocks Rally on US-China Preliminary Trade Agreement

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday rose by +1.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) rose by +0.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose by +1.82%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose by +1.21%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose by +1.83%. 

US stocks rallied sharply on Monday after US and Chinese negotiators, who met over the weekend in Malaysia, said they reached a tentative trade agreement to be finalized at Thursday's summit between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the ASEAN conference in Malaysia.  Treasury Secretary Bessent said the agreement means the US threat of a 100% tariff on US imports from China, set to start November 1, is "effectively off the table." Meanwhile, China agreed not to restrict the export of rare earth metals for at least one year and to buy a "substantial" amount of US soybeans.  The two sides also made progress on shipping fees and US demands that China crack down on the export to the US of fentanyl and precursors.  The two sides may also reach an agreement that would allow US consumers to continue to access TikTok. 

Treasury Secretary Bessent said Monday that the pool of candidates for the next Fed Chair has been narrowed to Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder.  President Trump is expected to announce a decision on a new Fed Chair by year-end to replace current Fed Chair Powell, whose term as the Fed Chairman ends on May 15, 2026.  Mr. Powell's separate term as a Fed Governor runs until January 2028, though he faces pressure from Mr. Trump to step down as a Fed Governor as well, so Mr. Trump can appoint a more dovish Fed governor.

This is a busy week, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, when it is expected to cut its federal funds rate target by -25 bp. Also, five of the Magnificent Seven companies report earnings this week, with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and  Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.

There was some carry-over support from last Friday's Sep US CPI report of +3.0% y/y for both the nominal and core figures, which was slightly weaker than expectations of +3.1% y/y for both figures.

Trade relations with Canada were a negative factor for stocks on Monday after President Trump said on Saturday that he would impose a new 10% tariff on US imports from Canada as punishment for last week's anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario.  Mr. Trump initially said that he was only halting US trade negotiations with Canada due to the ad, but he escalated the punishment over the weekend by imposing a new 10% tariff, even though Ontario had agreed to pause the ad campaign. 

Ontario's ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers.  Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs.  Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal, ruling the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority.  If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump's power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.

The US government shutdown continues into its fifth week, weighing on market sentiment and the US economy.  The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including all the recent weekly unemployment claims reports, the September unemployment and payroll report, Aug trade balance, Sep retail sales, Sep PPI, Sep housing starts, Sep industrial production, Sep leading indicators, and others. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.

The markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years.  Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from +6.4% in Q2. 

Overseas stock markets on Monday closed higher.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.64%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.18%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +2.46%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5)  on Monday rose slightly by +0.5 tick.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -1.2 bp to 3.989%.  T-note prices initially fell on Monday due to the US-Chinese trade agreement, which reduced safe-haven demand for Treasury securities and was positive for the US and Chinese economies.  T-note prices were also pressured by the rally in US stocks.

However, T-note prices recovered later in the day as the 10-year inflation expectations rate fell by -1.1 bp to 2.288%.  T-notes have support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. 

The markets are discounting a 98% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday (Oct 28-29).

European government bond yields closed lower.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.0 bp to 2.616%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell 3.0 bp at 4.402%.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks all closed higher on Monday, led by a +4.3% gain in Tesla (TSLA), a +3.6% gain in Alphabet (GOOG), and gains of more than +2% in Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL).

Chip stocks traded higher across the board Monday, led by a +11% gain in Qualcomm (QCOM) on news of a new AI chip and computer line to compete with Nvidia.  Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose more than +5%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) rose more than +4%.  ON Semiconductors (ON), Lam Research (LRCX), and Intel (INTC) all rose by more than +3%.

Crypto stocks traded higher, with support from Monday's gains of more than +3% in Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) and +5% in Ethereum (^ETHUSD).   Riot Platforms (RIOT) rallied more than +7%, Strategy (MSTR) rallied +2.3%, and Coinbase (COIN) rallied +2.0%.

Avidity Biosciences (RNA) rallied +42% after news that Swiss-based Novartis plans to buy the company in a deal worth $12 billion.  Novartis ADR shares (NVS) fell -0.9%.

Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) agreed to buy Cadence Bank (CADE) for $7.4 billion in an all-stock deal to expand into the Southeast and South. Huntington fell -1.8%, while Cadence rallied +4.4%.

American Water Works (AWK) fell -2.5%, and Essential Utilities (WTRG) fell -1.4%, after news that the two companies finalized AWK's purchase of Essential Utilities for $12 billion in an all-stock deal. 

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) rallied more than +7% after raising its full-year net sales guidance.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) rallied about +2% on news of an agreement with the National Football League and sports merchandiser Fanatics Inc to develop a line of fan apparel.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rose more than +4% after CICC gave the brokerage a new rating of outperform.

Newmont (NEM) fell more than -5% as the company seeks to gain control of Barrick's gold mines in Nevada.

Boeing (BA) rose +0.8% even though factory workers in St Louis narrowly rejected a new 5-year contract that would have ended a 3-month strike that has disrupted the company's main military manufacturing operations.

Earnings Reports(10/28/2025)

DR Horton Inc (DHI), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Wayfair Inc (W), Labcorp Holdings Inc (LH), Corning Inc (GLW), Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI), Sysco Corp (SYY), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), VF Corp (VFC), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), A O Smith Corp (AOS), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), Hubbell Inc (HUBB), Sherwin-Williams Co/The (SHW), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA), IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV), MSCI Inc (MSCI), Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD), Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC), Applied Industrial Technologie (AIT), Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA), Repligen Corp (RGEN), Xylem Inc/NY (XYL), Invesco Ltd (IVZ), SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (REGN), American Tower Corp (AMT), Incyte Corp (INCY), ATI Inc (ATI), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), Sensata Technologies Holding P (ST), WP Carey Inc (WPC), Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH), Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR), Landstar System Inc (LSTR), Equity Residential (EQR), ONEOK Inc (OKE), Flowserve Corp (FLS), Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR), Edison International (EIX), CoStar Group Inc (CSGP), Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR), MSA Safety Inc (MSA), Chemed Corp (CHE), Range Resources Corp (RRC), BXP Inc (BXP), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd (RNR), Regency Centers Corp (REG), ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS), Veralto Corp (VLTO), Visa Inc (V), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Element Solutions Inc (ESI), Highwoods Properties Inc (HIW), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Teradyne Inc (TER).