Stocks Rally on Strength in Energy Shares and US-China Trade Hopes

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed up +0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.31%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.88%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.58%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose up +0.90%.

Stock indexes settled higher on Thursday, led by strength in energy producers after WTI crude oil jumped more than +5% when the US blacklisted state-run Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s largest oil producers, which threatens to tighten global oil supplies.  Also, Dow Inc. rose more than +12% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda.  In addition, Honeywell International rose by more than +6% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 sales.

Stocks also found support on Thursday’s US economic news that showed Sep existing home sales rose +1.5% m/m to a 7-month high of 4.06 million, right on expectations.

Stocks added to their gains Thursday afternoon as US-China trade tensions eased slightly when the White House confirmed that President Trump will meet directly with President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.

On the negative side, Molina Healthcare closed down more than -17% to lead health insurers lower after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Also, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -8% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 preliminary sales.

Late Wednesday, the Trump administration announced sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s biggest oil producers, due to “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.” The new sanctions could bar foreign countries or companies from conducting business with the oil companies and cut them off from much of the international financial system.

The markets are focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump reiterated his threat on Monday to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1.  President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.   

The US government shutdown continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports.  The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including the last four weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday.  The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities.  Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.

The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues.  Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year.  However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years.  Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2. 

The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29. 

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Thursday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.52%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.22%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.35%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Thursday closed down -10 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.4 bp to 3.993%.  T-notes were under pressure on Thursday amid inflation concerns, as a +5% surge in WTI crude oil prices boosted inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year breakeven inflation rate to a 1-week high of 2.31%.  Also, Thursday’s rally in stocks curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes. 

T-notes have ongoing support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. 

European government bond yields moved higher on Thursday.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.0 bp to 2.583%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +0.6 bp to 4.423%.

The Eurozone Oct consumer confidence indicator survey unexpectedly rose +0.7 to an 8-month high of -14.2, stronger than expectations of a decline to -15.0.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.

US Stock Movers

Energy stocks and energy service providers moved higher on Thursday after the price of WTI crude oil surged more than +5% to a 2-week high.  APA Corp (APA) closed up more than +7% and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +6%.  Also, Diamondback Energy (FANG), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BKR), Devon Energy (DVN), and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up more than +3%.  In addition, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and ConocoPhillips (COP) closed up more than +2%. 

Quantum-computing stocks rallied on Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the firms are in talks to give the Commerce Department equity stakes in exchange for federal funding.  As a result, IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Quantum Computing (QUBT) closed up more than +6%. 

Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed down more than -17% to lead health insurers lower and losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $14.00 from a previous estimate of $19.00, well below the consensus of $18.65.  Also, Centene (CNC) closed down -5% and Oscar Health (OSCR) closed down more than -3%. 

Dow Inc. (DOW) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda of $868 million, well above the consensus of $759.7 million. 

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) closed up more than +12% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $3.33 billion, above the consensus of $3.04 billion. 

West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) closed up more than +10% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.06-$7.11 from a previous forecast of $6.65-$6.85.

Dover Corp (DOV) closed up more than +8% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations estimate to $9.50-$9.60 from a previous estimate of $9.35-$9.55. 

Honeywell International (HON) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 sales of $10.41 billion, stronger than the consensus of $10.15 billion. 

TransUnion (TRU) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.10, better than the consensus of $1.05. 

Trucking companies moved lower Thursday, led by a -7% fall in Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) after it forecasted Q4 adjusted EPS of 34 cents to 40 cents, the midpoint below the consensus of 39 cents.  Saia Inc (SAIA) closed down more than -5% on the news, and Schneider National (SNDR) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) closed down more than -3%. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -8% after reporting Q1 preliminary sales of $5.00 billion, well below the consensus of $6.49 billion. 

Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed down by more than -6% after reporting Q3 operating revenue of $6.90 billion, below the consensus of $6.92 billion.

Roper Technologies (ROP) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations $5.11 to $5.16, weaker than the consensus of $5.24.

T-Mobile US (TMUS) closed down more than -3% after reporting Q3 revenue of $21.96 billion, weaker than the consensus of $21.98 billion. 

Moderna (MRNA) closed down more than -2% after saying its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial. 

Earnings Reports(10/24/2025)

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co (BAH), First Hawaiian Inc (FHB), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Gentex Corp (GNTX), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG).