Stocks Settle Mixed on Strong Earnings and Weakness in Mining Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.06%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) fell -0.05%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) fell -0.08%.

Stock indexes settled mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 posting a one-week high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new record high.  The broader market found support Tuesday on some positive corporate news.  General Motors closed up more than +14% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate.  Also, 3M Co closed up more than +7% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations estimate.  In addition, RTX Corp closed up more than +7% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate.  Finally, Coca-Cola closed up more than +4% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 comparable EPS.

On the negative side, mining stocks retreated on Tuesday after the price of gold sank by more than -5% and silver prices plunged by more than -7% due to long liquidation pressures following their rallies to record highs last week.  Also, weakness in semiconductor stocks weighed on the Nasdaq 100.

Gains in stocks were limited on Tuesday as they consolidated some of their sharp gains made over the past two sessions.  The market is focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump on Monday reiterated his threat to boost tariffs on Chinese goods "if there isn't a deal" by November 1.  President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.   

In some minor US economic news, the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell -9.9 to a 4-month low of -22.2.

The shutdown of the US government continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports.  The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last three weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the Sep payroll report.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday.  The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don't align with President Trump's priorities.  Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.

Trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing US government shutdown, and fears about credit quality in the US have sparked a buying spree in precious metals as a haven, with gold and silver reaching fresh all-time highs last Friday. 

The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues.  Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts.  Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year.  However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years.  Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2. 

The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29. 

Overseas stock markets settled higher on Tuesday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new all-time high and closed up +0.10%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.36%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a new record high and closed up by +0.27%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Tuesday closed up +5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -2.5 bp to 3.955%.  T-note prices moved higher on Tuesday due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. T-notes remained higher after the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low.

European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.5 bp to 2.552%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -2.7 bp to 4.478%.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.

US Stock Movers

General Motors (GM) closed up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $9.75-$10.50 from a previous estimate of $8.25-$10.00.

Halliburton (HAL) closed up more than +12% after reporting Q3 revenue of $5.60 billion, better than the consensus of $5.39 billion.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after it announced it has initiated a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value. 

Gartner (IT) closed up more than +8% after William Balire said it was "impressed" by a demo of the company's AI-powered AskGartner tool at the IT Symposium/Xpo 2025 conference.

3M Co (MMM) closed up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials after raising its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations to $7.95-$8.05 from a previous estimate of $7.75-$8.00.   

RTX Corp (RTX) closed up more than +7% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate to $86.5 billion-$87.0 billion from a previous estimate of $84.75 billion-$85.50 billion.

Danaher (DHR) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.89, stronger than the consensus of $1.72.

Crown Holdings (CCK) closed up more than +5% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.70-$7.80 from a previous estimate of $7.10-$7.50, above the consensus of $7.39. 

Coca-Cola (KO) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q3 comparable EPS of 82 cents, above the consensus of 78 cents.

Mining stocks sold off on Tuesday after gold prices sank more than -5% and silver prices plunged more than -7%.  As a result, Newmont (NEM) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500.  Also, Barrick Mining (B), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU) closed down more than -9%.

Chipmakers declined on Tuesday, weighing on the Nasdaq 100. Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -2%.  Also, Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ASML Holding NV (ASML), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed down more than -1%.  In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) closed down -0.93% and Nvidia (NVDA) closed down -0.81%.

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) closed down more than -17% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $11. 

NuScale Power (SMR) closed down more than -13% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $37.50. 

Tempus AI (TEM) closed down more than -3% after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to hold from buy, citing valuation.  

Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down by more than -2% after OpenAI unveiled the first AI-powered web browser, sparking competition with Alphabet's Google.

Verizon Communications (VZ) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform.

Elevance Health (ELV) closed down more than -1% despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 operating revenue after the company said it sees 2025 Medicaid operating margin "modestly negative."  

Earnings Reports(10/22/2025)

Alcoa Corp (AA), Amphenol Corp (APH), Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY), AT&T Inc (T), Avery Dennison Corp (AVY), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), CACI International Inc (CACI), Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Castle Inc (CCI), Equity LifeStyle Properties In (ELS), First American Financial Corp (FAF), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Globe Life Inc (GL), Graco Inc (GGG), Hexcel Corp (HXL), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), International Business Machine (IBM), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Lennox International Inc (LII), Lithia Motors Inc (LAD), Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH), Moody's Corp (MCO), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), NVR Inc (NVR), O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), QuantumScape Corp (QS), Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF), Reliance Inc (RS), Robert Half Inc (RHI), SEI Investments Co (SEIC), Sonoco Products Co (SON), Southern Copper Corp (SCCO), SOUTHSTATE BANK CORP (SSB), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), Stifel Financial Corp (SF), Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), Travel + Leisure Co (TNL), United Rentals Inc (URI), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX), Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB), Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc (WH).