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December Lean Hogs opened higher and traded to the high at 82.875. Price reversed course and made its way lower the rest of the session to the low at 82.05. It settled just above the low at 82.075. The market slowly worked lower, making a new low for the down move as the cash market continues to break down from its highs. Open interest continues to decline as liquidation continues from long positions. Traders are leaving the market keeping the pressure on Hogs even as cash prices are higher than last year for this time frame. Expectations seem to be for cash prices to continue to work lower as the seasonal slaughter increase is putting pressure on price as higher weights are proving to be the difference in production. Slaughter is moving higher but is slightly below last year’s slaughter, but weights have been higher than last year and are assumed to remain higher than last year as we are not getting confirmation from the government due to the shutdown. With the cutout working lower, the packer has been pulling back on the price they are willing to pay for hogs. They don’t feel a need to be aggressive in buying hogs as supplies are growing and demand from China wanes as they remain in liquidation mode due to the government demand that they reduce sow supply and hog numbers. If they are reducing their numbers, they likely have more supply on hand than is needed so it is believed they are quiet in the world market. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at 83.325 and the declining 8-DMA now at 83.375. Resistance then comes in at the declining 13-DMA now at 84.675. A failure from the low could see price test support at 81.70. Support then comes in at 79.80.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 102.82 as of 10/17/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 96.12 as of 10/16/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 492,000, which is above last week’s 485,000 and above last year’s 481,083.
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Ben DiCostanzo
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