S&P Futures Tick Higher With Focus on U.S. Confidence Data and Fed Speak

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.10% this morning, attempting to end the up-and-down week on a positive note, while investors await the release of the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on U.S. consumer sentiment and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

Lower bond yields today are supporting U.S. equity futures.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed in the red. Most semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks retreated, with Dell Technologies (DELL) sliding over -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Micron Technology (MU) falling more than -2%. Also, PulteGroup (PHM) slumped more than -4% to lead homebuilders lower after CFRA downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold. In addition, AZZ Inc. (AZZ) dropped over -4% after the metal coatings and welding services company posted downbeat Q2 results. On the bullish side, Delta Air Lines (DAL) climbed more than +4% after the carrier reported upbeat Q3 results and firmed up its annual earnings guidance.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Thursday that officials should proceed carefully with further interest rate cuts, stressing that tariffs could lead to persistent inflation. Policymakers “should be cautious about adjusting policy so that we can gather further data, update our forecasts, and better assess the balance of risks,” Barr said. At the same time, New York Fed President John Williams said he supports additional rate cuts this year to help safeguard the labor market. “The risks of a further slowdown in the labor market are something I’m very focused on,” Williams said.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 5.4% chance of no rate change at October’s monetary policy meeting.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its tenth day, with no resolution in sight. The shutdown appears set to extend into next week, as the Senate wrapped up late Thursday and is not scheduled to return until Tuesday. Still, an administration official said late Thursday that some furloughed federal employees would return to work to publish U.S. inflation data for September next week.

Today, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the preliminary October figure will stand at 54.1, compared to 55.1 in September.

Market participants will also parse comments today from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.117%, down -0.84%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.09% this morning, struggling for direction as investors await French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of a new prime minister. Energy and mining stocks underperformed on Friday. At the same time, automobile stocks rebounded, with Stellantis N.V. (STLAM.M.DX) rising over +1% after it reported a 13% year-over-year increase in Q3 global vehicle shipments. Real estate stocks also gained ground. The benchmark index is on track to notch a weekly loss. Data released on Friday showed that Italy’s monthly industrial production fell in August at the sharpest pace since last December, signaling renewed weakness in the country’s long-struggling manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron continued his search for a new prime minister who can maintain a fragile budget agreement among rival lawmakers. The president vowed earlier this week to name a new prime minister by Friday evening. France’s central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that political uncertainty is shaving at least 0.2 percentage points off the country’s economic growth and could further erode business and consumer confidence. In corporate news, Energiekontor AG (EKT.D.DX) plunged over -18% after the wind and solar park developer cut its full-year earnings guidance.

Italy’s Industrial Production data was released today.

The Italian August Industrial Production fell -2.4% m/m and -2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +0.5% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.94%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.01%. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, pulling back from a 10-year high as renewed geopolitical tensions dampened risk appetite and prompted profit-taking. Semiconductor stocks underperformed on Friday amid growing worries about stretched valuations and reports of margin cuts. Rare earth stocks also retreated. In addition, EV battery stocks slumped after regulators implemented revisions to tax-exemption policies. Sentiment deteriorated further after China widened its export restrictions on rare earths, following U.S. lawmakers’ recent push for broader bans on chipmaking equipment sales to China. Beijing added five more elements to its control list, tightened oversight of semiconductor users, and imposed new restrictions on items related to lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials. Also, China will impose a special port fee on U.S. vessels docking at its ports beginning October 14th, in response to the Trump administration’s decision to levy fees on Chinese ships. Meanwhile, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Thursday targeting roughly 100 individuals, entities, and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and terminal. Citi analysts said in a note, “We believe the U.S. and China could both be strengthening their leverage in trade talks, ahead of a potential summit between the two presidents.” Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to meet later this month at the APEC summit in South Korea. In corporate news, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. slid over -7% in Hong Kong following reports that brokerages reduced the stock’s margin financing ratio to zero due to high valuations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street. Energy and materials stocks led the declines on Friday. Still, the benchmark index notched its biggest weekly gain in more than a year. Data released on Friday showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation remained steady in September, while the Bank of Japan’s quarterly survey indicated that most households expect prices to rise over the next year, suggesting that inflationary pressures may keep the central bank on track for further rate hikes. The yen’s recent steep decline, driven by fading market expectations of an imminent BOJ rate hike, could also push inflation higher by reigniting import cost pressures, according to analysts. Meanwhile, the yen was on track for its biggest weekly decline in a year, even as Japan’s new ruling-party leader, Sanae Takaichi, said she did not support an excessively weak currency. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato also stated that the government remains concerned about excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Atsushi Takeuchi, a former BOJ official, said that authorities may step in if the yen weakens sharply toward 160 per dollar. In other news, Japan’s top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed that the U.S.-Japan trade agreement will further deepen bilateral ties and support economic growth. In corporate news, Fast Retailing climbed over +6% after the Uniqlo brand owner reported a record full-year profit and projected a fifth consecutive year of record profit for fiscal 2026. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.07% to 30.11.

The Japanese September PPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Intel (INTC) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after unveiling new products and manufacturing technology that are key to its turnaround strategy.

Applied Digital (APLD) jumped more than +23% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected FQ1 results and signed a new lease agreement with CoreWeave.

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) climbed over +8% in pre-market trading after the data analytics company raised its full-year revenue guidance and announced a $500 million stock buyback.

Qualcomm (QCOM) fell more than -3% in pre-market trading after China opened an antitrust probe into the company over its acquisition of Israel’s Autotalks.

Doximity (DOCS) slid over -3% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $62.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - October 10th

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