I asked how high Bitcoin can rise or fall in an August 22, 2025, Barchart article. I concluded with:
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets. While the bullish trend remains firmly intact, the price history suggests that another price plunge is not out of the question.
Bitcoin was trading at $116,182.33 per token on August 22, after reaching a record high of $124,198.52 on August 14. While the price fell to a low of $107,291.82 on September 1, Bitcoin has made higher lows and higher highs over the past weeks and rose to a new record peak in early October.
Range trading near the high was bullish
The year-to-date Bitcoin chart shows that the consolidation range has given way to a new record high.
The daily 2025 U.S. dollar Bitcoin chart highlights the series of three new record highs in mid-July, mid-August, and early October 2025. Since July, Bitcoin has traded in a sideways range, holding above the $107,000 per token level and reaching marginally new record peaks. On October 6, Bitcoin reached a price of $126,184.05 per token.
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Picking tops in any market during bull markets is dangerous; in the cryptocurrency market, it can be downright deadly.
The monthly chart shows Bitcoin’s volatile nature. The last significant correction occurred in early April when the U.S. Trump administration announced unprecedented tariffs on global trading partners. However, Bitcoin recovered after holding just below the $75,000 per token level and has rallied over 63% since the early April low, reaching a series of new record highs.
Bitcoin’s rise reflects declining confidence in governments
Bitcoin is not the only asset that has served as a store of value and currency over the past months.
Gold, the world’s oldest commodity and means of exchange, has experienced an explosive rally. After reaching a low of $252.80 in 1999, gold is now trading over $4,000 per ounce. Gold’s rally turned parabolic in late 2023, the last time the precious metal traded below $2,000 per ounce.
Bitcoin and gold are alternative currencies that have sent a clear signal that fiat currencies, which derive their value from the full faith and credit of the governments issuing legal tender, are in rapid decline. Confidence in governments has deteriorated over the past few years, and this trend has continued to gain momentum, driving the leading cryptocurrency and financial metal to new record highs.
The risk rises with the price
The risk of another severe correction has increased with Bitcoin’s price. The last April 2025 correction took Bitcoin 31.7% lower from $109,012.48 in January 2025 to $74,496.62 in early April. The 2025 correction was hardly the worst implosive move over the past years:
- Bitcoin fell 32.4% from $73,662.76 in March 2024 to a low of $49,784.02 in August 2024.
- Bitcoin plunged 77.5% from $68,906.48 in November 2021 to a low of $15,516.53 in November 2022.
- The leading cryptocurrency fell 84% from $19,862 in December 2017 to $3,158.10 in December 2018.
The explosive and implosive price history suggests that as Bitcoin rises higher, the greater the odds of a substantial correction.
ETFs that track Bitcoin prices
Some of the ETF products that hold physical Bitcoin and move higher and lower with its price are:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)-At $69.60 per share, IBIT has over $95.44 billion in assets under management. IBIT trades an average of over 47.8 million shares daily and charges a 0.25% management fee.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)- At $106.85 per share, FBTC has over $25.2 billion in assets under management. FBTC trades an average of over 4.05 million shares daily and charges a 0.25% management fee.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB)- At $66.60 per share, BITB has over $4.617 billion in assets under management. BITB trades an average of over 1.428 million shares daily and charges a 0.20% management fee.
- Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB)- At $40.70 per share, ARKB has over $5.49 billion in assets under management. ARKB trades an average of over 2.26 million shares daily and charges a 0.21% management fee.
- VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL)- At $34.65 per share, HODL has over $1.717 billion in assets under management. IBIT trades an average of over 1.476 million shares daily and charges a 0.25% management fee.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)- At $96.07 per share, GBTC has over $22.96 billion in assets under management. GBTC trades an average of over 2.80 million shares daily and charges a 1.50% management fee.
There are other cryptocurrency-related ETFs that are correlated with Bitcoin, and the thousands of other cryptocurrencies are Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) and Mara Holdings Inc. (MARA), two mining companies, and Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN), a leading cryptocurrency platform.
Growing acceptance is bullish as it expands the addressable market
While the risk of another significant correction rises with Bitcoin’s price, the growing addressable market could limit the downside potential. A growing number of financial institutions now allow customers to include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies in investment portfolios. The Trump administration has embraced the asset class, increasing the regulatory environment, which has improved investor confidence.
Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines with periodic downside corrections. However, the declining confidence in fiat currencies and government debt securities supports the cryptocurrency asset class in late 2025. Bitcoin could experience another substantial correction, but the growth of the asset class and its acceptance suggest that it would be another in a long series of buying opportunities. After all, the market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency asset class is $4.18 trillion in October 2025, which is still lower than that of NVIDIA, which was near $4.576 trillion.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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