Stocks Turn Mixed as US Consumer Sentiment Slips

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.20%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.12%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.18%.

Stock indexes are mixed today.  The broader market garnered support from today's reports on consumer spending and core PCE inflation.  Today's report on Aug personal spending rose more than expected at the strongest pace in five months.  Also, today's report on the Aug core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, came in right on expectations, which could allow the Fed to continue lowering interest rates.  However, stocks fell back from their best levels and turned mixed after US consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell to a 4-month low.

US semiconductor makers are moving higher today after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is considering a new plan to reduce the US's reliance on chips made overseas, aiming to spur domestic manufacturing and reshape global supply chains.

Pharmaceutical stocks are mostly higher today despite President Trump's plan to impose 100% tariffs on drug imports.  According to Jeffries, the plan appears to be a "win" for the pharmaceutical industry, as many major drug makers have a production presence in the US and have announced increased investment directly tied to local manufacturing. 

US Aug personal spending rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest increase in 5 months.  Aug personal income rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

The US Aug core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, right on expectations.

The University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index was unexpectedly revised lower to a 4-month low of 55.1, weaker than expectations of no change at 55.4.

The University of Michigan US Sep 1-year inflation expectations were revised lower to 4.7% from the previously reported 4.8%.  Also, the Sep 5-10 year inflation expectations were revised downward to 3.7% from the previously reported 3.9%.

Comments today from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin were slightly hawkish, as he noted that the uncertainty that pervaded the economic outlook earlier in the year has started to lift for US companies, and he sees limited risk of further deterioration in employment and inflation.

A potential negative factor for market sentiment is the likelihood that the US government will shut down on October 1 if lawmakers fail to pass a spending bill by then.  The White House issued a memo late Wednesday that said a shutdown would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don't align with President Trump's priorities.

Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results that are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year.  Also, S&P companies are expected to post +6.9% earnings growth in Q3, up from +6.7% as of the end of May. 

The markets are pricing in an 86% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29. 

Overseas stock markets today are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 5-week high and is up +0.88%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.65%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.87%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.6 bp to 4.154%.  Easing inflation concerns are supportive for T-notes today after the August core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, came in right on expectations, and the University of Michigan's US September inflation expectations were revised lower.  Also, today's downward revision in the University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index to a 4-month low is bullish for T-notes.

Gains in T-notes are limited today after US Aug personal spending rose more than expected at the strongest pace in 5 months.  Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin were bearish for T-notes when he said he sees limited risk of further deterioration of employment and inflation. 

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 2.729% and is down -4.3 bp at 2.730%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 3-week high of 4.768% and is down -3.9 bp to 4.718%.

The ECB Aug 1-year CPI expectations unexpectedly rose to 2.8% from 2.6% in July, stronger than expectations of a decline to 2.5%.  The ECB Aug 3-year CPI expectations were unchanged from July at 2.5%, stronger than expectations of a decline to 2.4%.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.

US Stock Movers

US chip makers are climbing today after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce US reliance on chips made overseas.  GlobalFoundries (GFS) is up by more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Intel (INTC) is up more than +3%, and Texas Instruments (TXN) is up +0.67%. In addition, Micron Technology (MU) is up +0.20%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers are rallying today, with the price of WTI crude oil up more than +1% at a 1.75-month high.  APA Corp (APA) is up more than +4%, and Devon Energy (DVN), Schlumberger (SLB), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are up more than +3%.  Also, Haliburton (HAL), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +2%.  In addition, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +1%. 

Pharmaceutical stocks are moving higher after Jeffries said that President Trump's plan to boost tariffs on the companies looks like a "win" for the pharmaceutical industry, as many major drug makers have some production presence in the US and have announced increased investment directly tied towards local manufacturing.  Eli Lilly (LLY) is up +0.92%, Merck & Co. (MRK) is up +0.49%, Pfizer (PFE) is up +0.34%, and AbbVie (ABBV) is up +0.30%. 

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) is up more than +25% after receiving FDA approval for its Palsonify medication to treat adults with acromegaly. 

Paccar (PCAR) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after President Trump set a 25% tariff rate on heavy trucks made outside of the US. 

Mirion Technologies (MIR) is up more than +7% after JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight with a price target of $28. 

Boeing (BA) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FAA will ease restrictions on 737 MAX deliveries.

TechnipFMC (FTI) is up more than +1% after it was awarded a contract worth between $250 million-$500 million to supply subsea production for Exxon Mobil's Hammerhead development in Guyana's Starbroek Block. 

Semiconductor stocks are falling today.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are down more than -2%.  Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Lam Research (LRCX), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Broadcom (AVGO), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are down more than -1%.

IREN Ltd (IREN) is down more than -14% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $24. 

Concentrix (CNXC) is down more than -9% after forecasting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.85 to $2.96, well below the consensus of $3.30.

Costco Wholesale (COST) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q4 US comparable sales rose +5.1%, weaker than the consensus of +5.21%.

CarMax (KMX) is down more than -1% after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to in line from outperform. 

Earnings Reports(9/26/2025)

Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI), Immersion Corp (IMMR), Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc (MFH), Triller Group Inc (ILLR), XCF Global Inc (SAFX).