Stock Indexes Consolidate Below Last Week's Record Highs

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.50%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.09%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are down -0.15%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.04%. 

Stock indexes are lower today as they consolidate last week's rally that pushed the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 to new record highs.  Stocks rallied last week on the view that a weakened US labor market with contained inflation will allow the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. The price of gold is up more than +1% today at a new all-time high as dovish global central banks, geopolitical risks, and trade tensions have boosted demand for the metal as a store of value and as a safe-haven.

Today's minor US economic news was supportive of stocks after the Aug Chicago Fed national activity index rose +0.16 to a 5-month high of -0.12, stronger than expectations of -0.15.

The price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) today is down by more than -2% at a 1.5-week low, driven by long liquidation pressures.  According to data from Coinglass, more than 407,000 traders liquidated positions over the past twenty-four hours. 

Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results that are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year.  Also, S&P companies are expected to post +6.9% earnings growth in Q3, up from +6.7% as of the end of May. 

The markets this week will focus on any fresh trade or tariff news.  On Tuesday, the Sep S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to fall -1.1 to 51.9.  Also, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at an event at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce.  On Wednesday, Aug new home sales are expected to decline by -0.3% m/m to 650,000.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +3,000 to 234,000.  Also, Aug core (ex defense and aircraft) capital goods new orders are expected to slip -0.1% m/m.  In addition, Q2 GDP is expected to be unrevised at +3.3% (q/q annualized). Finally, Aug existing home sales are expected to fall -1.4% m/m to 3.96 million.  On Friday, Aug personal spending is expected to be up by +0.5% m/m and Aug personal income is expected to be up by +0.3% m/m.  Also, the Aug core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to rise by +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.  Finally, the University of Michigan’s Sep US consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unchanged at 55.4.

The markets are pricing in a 91% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29. 

Overseas stock markets today are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down by -0.37%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.22%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.99%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down by -0.7 bp to 4.124%.  T-note prices are moving slightly higher today as weakness in stocks boosts some safe-haven demand for government debt securities.  Supply pressures are bearish for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $211 billion of T-notes and floating rate notes this week, beginning with Tuesday's $69 billion auction of 2-year T-notes. 

European government bond yields today are lower.  The 10-year German bund yield fell from a 2.5-week high of 2.762% and is down -1.5 bp at 2.733%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 2-week high of 4.724% and is down -2.0 bp at 4.695%.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.

US Stock Movers

Lennar (LEN) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and lead home builders lower, after Raymond James downgraded the stock to underperform from market perform.  DR Horton (DHI), PulteGroup (PHM), and Toll Brothers (TOL) are down more than -1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are under pressure today, with the price of Bitcoin down more than -2% at a 1.5-week low.  Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Coinbase Global (COIN), Bit Digital (BTBT), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -2%.

Kenvue (KVUE) is down more than -4% after the Washington Post reported the Trump administration plans to link the active ingredient in the company's Tylenol medication to autism. 

Amer Sports (AS) is down more than -6% on news that Chinese authorities launched an investigation after a fireworks show in Tibet sponsored by the company's subsidiary Arc'teryx sparked concerns about the show's impact on the environment.   

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is down more than -2% after data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, showed European planned air travel bookings to the US this fall are down -11% from last year. 

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is down more than -2% after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $24. 

Apple (AAPL) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Wedbush raised its price target on the stock to $310 from $270. 

Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Piper Sandler raised its price target on the stock to $500 from $400. 

Metsera (MTSR) is up more than +62% after Pfizer agreed to buy the company for about $4.9 billion, or $47.50 per share. 

MBX Biosciences (MBX) is up more than +139% after reporting its once-weekly canvuparatide met the main goal in a Phase 2 study to treat chronic hypoparathyroidism. 

Teradyne (TER) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Susquehanna Financial raised its price target on the stock to $200 from $133.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is up more than +8% after BMO Capital Markets upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $50.

FactSet Research Systems (FDS) is up more than +4% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $425.

Applied Materials (AMAT) is up more than +3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $209. 

NiSource (NI) is up more than +2% after its Indiana unit, Nipsco, agreed to provide electric service to an undisclosed "large, investment-grade" company data center. 

Helmerich & Payne (HP) is up more than +1% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $25.

Earnings Reports(9/22/2025)

None.