S&P Futures Tick Higher With Trump-Xi Call in Focus

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.17% this morning, extending yesterday’s gains, while investors await a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump and Xi are scheduled to speak at 9 a.m. Washington time, or 9 p.m. in Beijing. The conversation is expected to decide TikTok’s future and could also help ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

“A deal for the social media app might act as a catalyst for improving the relationship between the two largest economies amid an ongoing trade war,” according to Danske Bank strategists.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow notching new record highs. Intel (INTC) jumped over +22% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Nvidia said it would invest $5 billion in the chipmaker as part of a partnership to jointly develop PC and data center chips. Also, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) surged more than +12% after the cybersecurity company gave a strong fiscal 2027 forecast for net new annual recurring revenue growth. In addition, 89bio (ETNB) spiked over +85% after Roche agreed to acquire the company for $3.5 billion. On the bearish side, FactSet Research Systems (FDS) plunged more than -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS and issued soft FY26 guidance.

Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to an 8-month high of 23.2 in September, stronger than expectations of 1.7. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -33K to 231K, compared with the 241K expected. At the same time, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.5% m/m in August, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m.

“The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates during a time when stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing. This dynamic is bullish for stocks,” said Robert Schein at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. 

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8.1% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in October.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. According to data from SpotGamma, options tied to about $6.3 trillion in stocks and equity indexes are set to expire today, making the September expiration one of the three largest triple-witching events on record. However, market watchers are largely downplaying its significance.

“The quarterly option expiry is increasingly becoming a non-event, especially when volatility is low,” said Garrett DeSimone, head quant at OptionMetrics. “So don’t expect big price jumps [on] the Monday post expiry.”

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will likely focus on a speech from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.122%, up +0.46%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.42% this morning, poised to end a week marked by key central bank decisions on a positive note. Automobile stocks outperformed on Friday, led by a more than +4% climb in Stellantis NV (STLAP.FP) after Berenberg upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold. Bank stocks also advanced. The benchmark index is on track to post a weekly gain. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Friday showed that U.K. monthly retail sales rose in August, providing a boost to an economy struggling with high inflation and slowing activity. Separately, data showed that Germany’s annual producer prices fell in August at the sharpest pace in 15 months. Meanwhile, Nvidia committed $2.7 billion to U.K. AI startup development, marking the latest in a wave of spending pledges by U.S. tech giants coinciding with U.S. President Donald Trump’s state visit. Investors now shift their focus to U.S.-China trade talks. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to hold a phone call later today as a precursor to a potential meeting that could pave the way for a broader trade deal.

U.K. Retail Sales, U.K. Core Retail Sales, France’s Business Survey, and Germany’s PPI data were released today.

U.K. August Retail Sales rose +0.5% m/m and +0.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +0.6% y/y.

U.K. August Core Retail Sales rose +0.8% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y.

The French September Business Survey came in at 96, in line with expectations.

The German August PPI fell -0.5% m/m and -2.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m and -1.8% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.30%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.57%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors decided to take some profit while awaiting the outcome of a high-level phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Semiconductor stocks retreated on Friday, giving back part of their recent strong gains. Insurance stocks also slumped. The benchmark index posted its biggest weekly drop since early April. Changjiang Securities analysts said, “There is objectively some profit-taking pressure after the market’s rapid short-term gains.” Still, the analysts noted that expectations for China’s market to enter a “slow bull” run remain intact, supported by increased inflows of long-term capital and household savings. In other news, Chinese AI developer DeepSeek said it spent $294,000 on training its R1 model, far below the costs reported for U.S. rivals, boosting optimism about China’s AI developments. Investor attention is now squarely on the call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later today.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier gains and closed lower today following the Bank of Japan’s decision to begin selling its massive holdings of exchange-traded funds. Retail stocks led the declines on Friday. Electronics stocks also lost ground. At the same time, bank stocks outperformed as bond yields climbed on rising expectations of a future rate hike from the BOJ. Despite Friday’s drop, the benchmark index ended the holiday-shortened week higher. The BOJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% in a contested vote, with two board members dissenting in favor of a hike. Also, the central bank announced it will begin selling its exchange-traded fund holdings, valued at more than 75 trillion yen ($508 billion), at a pace of roughly 620 billion yen per year by market value. It also decided to offload Japanese real-estate investment trusts (J-REITs) at an annual pace of around 5 billion yen. The dissenters as well as the announcement on ETFs and J-REITs underscore that the BOJ remains committed to policy tightening, even as worries mount over the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global economy. Government data released earlier on Friday showed that Japan’s core inflation eased in August but remained well above the central bank’s 2% target. Still, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he needed more data before determining the next steps, signaling a reduced likelihood of a rate hike in October. In other news, foreign investors sold a net 2.03 trillion yen ($13.76 billion) worth of Japanese stocks last week, marking the largest weekly outflow in a year, as they grew cautious over potential political risks following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.25% to 24.05.

The Japanese August National Core CPI rose +2.7% y/y, in line with expectations.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

FedEx (FDX) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after the logistics giant posted better-than-expected FQ1 results and reinstated its full-year guidance.

Tesla (TSLA) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after Baird upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $548.

BILL Holdings (BILL) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after Truist upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $63 price target.

Lennar (LEN) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after the homebuilder reported downbeat FQ3 results and issued below-consensus FQ4 home deliveries guidance.

MetLife (MET) slid over -1% in pre-market trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - September 19th

Cantaloupe (CTLP), Golden Matrix (GMGI), Anixa Biosciences (ANIX), Anebulo Pharmaceuticals (ANEB), Bridgford (BRID).