S&P Futures Tick Higher Ahead of U.S. Payrolls Revisions

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.17% this morning, buoyed by hopes for multiple interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while investors await an annual review of U.S. jobs data.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Applovin (APP) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would be added to the S&P 500 index on September 22nd. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising more than +4% and Broadcom (AVGO) gaining over +3%. In addition, EchoStar (SATS) jumped more than +19% after SpaceX agreed to acquire wireless spectrum from the company for about $17 billion. On the bearish side, Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) plummeted over -25% after the company released new data that raised concerns about the future of its closely-watched lung cancer drug, ivonescimab.

Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. consumer credit rose by $16.01 billion in July, stronger than expectations of $10.40 billion.

“While the Sept. 5 report showed job growth had slowed, it doesn’t appear to be signaling a recession,” according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office. “Slower growth, anchored inflation expectations, falling yields, and anticipated rate cuts point to an optimistic outlook for stocks.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 11.8% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Today, investors will closely monitor the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of its preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls for the year through March. The figure is expected to show another downward revision to March payrolls, suggesting the labor market was weakening well before the recent spell of sluggish job growth. Wells Fargo, Comerica Bank, and Pantheon Macroeconomics economists expect the revision to show that the March payroll count was nearly 800,000 lower than currently estimated, or about 67,000 fewer per month on average. Nomura Securities, Bank of America, and Royal Bank of Canada estimate that the downgrade could be closer to one million.

“A big downward revision to job growth through March 2025 would have less implications for monetary policy than a downward revision to job growth in the most recent months, but it does set the stage for the broader context of how the economy has been doing. And all things equal, downward revisions to job growth increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica. 

Market participants will also focus on earnings reports from several notable companies, with Oracle (ORCL), Synopsys (SNPS), Rubrik (RBRK), AeroVironment (AVAV), and GameStop Corp. (GME) set to release their quarterly figures today.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) hosts its biggest product launch event of the year today. The tech giant is expected to unveil four new iPhones at the gathering, including a new iPhone 17 Air. The Air will likely be slimmer and lighter than the base iPhone models.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.065%, up +0.49%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.14% this morning, paring earlier gains as investors await the next steps in France’s efforts to repair its finances. Mining stocks outperformed on Tuesday, with Anglo American Plc (AAL.LN) climbing over +9% after the miner agreed to merge with Canada’s Teck Resources. Data released on Tuesday showed that French monthly industrial production fell in July, pulling back from the strong growth seen in the previous month, as uncertainty looms over the country’s economic outlook following the government’s ousting this week. French President Emmanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister within days after current premier Francois Bayrou lost a confidence vote in the lower house of parliament. Meanwhile, investors await the European Central Bank’s rate-setting meeting as well as U.S. inflation data later this week. In other corporate news, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS.M.DX) rose more than +2% after securing a majority stake in Mediobanca.

France’s Industrial Production data was released today.

The French July Industrial Production fell -1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of -1.4% m/m.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.51%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.42%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, snapping a two-session winning streak as a plunge in chipmaker SMIC weighed on sentiment. Technology stocks slumped on Tuesday, dragged down by a more than 10% drop in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. after China’s largest chipmaker announced a share issuance plan to take full control of a unit, raising dilution concerns. At the same time, Hong Kong-listed property stocks climbed for a second consecutive day after Shenzhen joined Beijing and Shanghai in loosening restrictions on home purchases. Daiwa analysts said in a note that the Chinese government, facing renewed strains in the property sector, may roll out additional policy support ahead of the September Politburo meeting. Gold mining stocks also jumped as the price of the precious metal continued to rally. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to China’s inflation data for August, due Wednesday, for more clues on the state of domestic demand. In other corporate news, Country Garden Holdings jumped over +27% in Hong Kong after its shares were added to the list of eligible securities for Southbound Trading via the Shanghai Connect and Shenzhen Connect.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today due to profit-taking and pressure on equities from a stronger yen. Energy and materials stocks led the declines on Tuesday. The benchmark index initially moved higher and hit a new record high, supported by gains in technology and automobile stocks. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday that U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars and auto parts, will be reduced by September 16th. However, he noted that trade discussions have not been “settled.” It remains uncertain how U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs on pharmaceutical and semiconductor exports will materialize. “As tariffs will remain in place, our nation’s economy will continue to be damaged,” Akazawa said. Meanwhile, Japan’s government bonds were firmer on Tuesday after slumping in the previous session as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to step down reinforced expectations for looser fiscal policy. Kyodo News Agency reported late on Monday that Sanae Takaichi, an advocate of government stimulus and monetary easing, has decided to enter the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race. LDP officials said on Tuesday that the party would hold a “full-spec” vote, instead of the faster, simplified vote, to choose its next leader. The party plans to hold the vote on October 4th, according to local media reports, including broadcasters NHK and TBS. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.87% to 24.60.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nebius (NBIS) soared more than +49% in pre-market trading after securing a deal worth $19.4 billion to provide Microsoft with AI infrastructure through 2031.

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after Citi upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $280.

Roblox (RBLX) gained about +0.8% in pre-market trading after Arete upgraded the stock to Neutral from Sell.

Dell Technologies (DELL) fell nearly -1% in pre-market trading after announcing that Chief Financial Officer Yvonne McGill will step down after 30 years with the company.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) slid over -3% in pre-market trading after UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - September 9th

Oracle (ORCL), Synopsys (SNPS), Rubrik (RBRK), Core Main (CNM), Sailpoint (SAIL), AeroVironment (AVAV), GameStop Corp (GME), Korn Ferry (KFY), Hello Group (MOMO), Cognyte Software (CGNT), Amark Preci (AMRK), InnovAge Holding (INNV), Calavo Growers (CVGW), Lands’ End (LE), Matrix (MTRX), Shoulder Innovations (SI), Limoneira (LMNR), Aeluma (ALMU), Methode Electronics (MEI), Designer Brands (DBI), Bioceres Crop (BIOX), Lakeland Industries (LAKE).