Stock Index Futures Slip With Focus on U.S. PCE Inflation Data

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.27%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.47% this morning as investors trimmed risk ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge, which could offer more insight into the interest-rate outlook.

Some negative corporate news is weighing on stock index futures, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) tumbling over -14% in pre-market trading after the chip designer posted in-line Q2 results and provided tepid Q3 revenue guidance. Also, Dell Technologies (DELL) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after reporting a slowdown in AI server orders in Q2 and a weaker-than-expected operating margin in its infrastructure unit.

Higher bond yields today are also weighing on stock index futures.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 notching a new all-time high. Snowflake (SNOW) jumped over +20% after the provider of cloud-based data-warehouse software posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Micron Technology (MU) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising more than +3%. In addition, Pure Storage (PSTG) soared over +32% after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and boosted its annual guidance. On the bearish side, Hormel Foods (HRL) plunged more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ3 adjusted EPS and gave disappointing FQ4 guidance.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday that Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to +3.3% (q/q annualized) from the initial estimate of +3.0%, stronger than expectations of +3.1%. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -5K to 229K, compared with the 231K expected. In addition, U.S. pending home sales fell -0.4% m/m in July, in line with expectations.

“Slowing job growth indicates the economy will not keep up with the above-trend growth from the previous quarter. Economic growth will likely flatline in the third quarter. Softer growth in the third quarter will add fuel to those calling for rate cuts,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his call for lower interest rates on Thursday, saying he would back a quarter-point cut in September and expects further reductions over the next three to six months. “With underlying inflation close to 2%, market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, and the chances of an undesirable weakening in the labor market increased, proper risk management means the FOMC should be cutting the policy rate now,” Waller said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 85.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 14.8% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting next month.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y in July, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y.

“In-line or lower results will likely cement investors’ confidence in a September rate cut. While a higher-than-expected print may not take a rate cut off the table next month, it could sour Wall Street’s mood as inflation concerns grow,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.

U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate July Personal Spending to rise +0.5% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.4% m/m, compared to the June figures of +0.3% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today. Economists expect the final August figure to be revised slightly higher to 58.7 from the preliminary reading of 58.6.

The U.S. Chicago PMI will come in today. Economists forecast the August figure at 46.6, compared to the previous value of 47.1.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect the preliminary July figure to rise +0.1% m/m, the same as in June.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.221%, up +0.33%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.72% this morning as British bank stocks fell on concerns over a potential windfall tax, while investors digested a raft of economic data from the region and braced for key U.S. inflation data. Bank stocks slumped on Friday, dragged down by a drop in British lenders after a think tank proposed that the U.K. government should tax banks on the billions of pounds they earn in interest from reserves held at the Bank of England. The benchmark index is on track to post its first weekly loss in four as a political crisis in France and worries over the Fed’s independence weighed on sentiment this week. Meanwhile, inflation showed no signs of picking up pace in France, Spain, and Italy in August, keeping alive a slim chance of an interest rate cut at next month’s European Central Bank policy meeting. Separately, an ECB poll showed that Eurozone consumers kept their inflation expectations largely steady at or above the central bank’s 2% target in July. In addition, data showed that the number of unemployed people in Germany unexpectedly fell in August. Investors now await preliminary inflation data from Germany and the key U.S. inflation report due later in the session.

Germany’s Retail Sales, Germany’s Unemployment Change, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, France’s CPI (preliminary), France’s GDP, Spain’s CPI (preliminary), Italy’s GDP, and Italy’s CPI (preliminary) data were released today.

The German July Retail Sales came in at -1.5% m/m and +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of no change m/m and +2.6% y/y.

The German August Unemployment Change stood at -9K, stronger than expectations of 10K.

The German August Unemployment Rate was 6.3%, in line with expectations.

The French August CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

The French GDP came in at +0.3% q/q and +0.8% y/y in the second quarter, compared to expectations of +0.3% q/q and +0.7% y/y.

The Spanish August CPI was unchanged m/m and rose +2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y.

The Italian GDP arrived at -0.1% q/q and +0.4% y/y in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

The Italian August CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.37%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.26%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today as abundant liquidity continued to fuel the rally. Consumer stocks led the gains on Friday as investors moved into defensives after tech companies issued warnings following recent price surges. Chipmaker Cambricon Technologies issued a risk alert to investors after its sharp price rally, while trading in the shares of Dosilicon was suspended on Friday after the company flagged multiple cases of abnormal stock price volatility. Meanwhile, the benchmark index notched another strong week of gains, intensifying debate over the sustainability of the rally that has defied the country’s economic challenges. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note that China’s stock market still has upside potential, as households may continue to reallocate assets from the property market and deposit accounts into equities. Goldman kept its Overweight rating on Chinese equities and lifted its 12-month target for the CSI300 Index to 4,900 from 4,500. In other news, China’s top economic planner said it will cooperate with other agencies to investigate and penalize below-cost dumping, false advertising, and accelerate the regulation of “disorderly competition” in certain industries. In corporate news, Haier Smart Home climbed over +4% in Hong Kong after the household appliances maker posted better-than-expected first-half profit. Investor focus is now squarely on official PMI readings due on the final day of August.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today as some weak economic data from the country weighed on sentiment. Retail and real estate stocks led the declines on Friday. Still, the benchmark index posted modest gains for the week. Government data released on Friday showed that Japan’s industrial production slumped in July, reflecting the impact of higher U.S. tariffs, while Tokyo core consumer inflation cooled in August but remained elevated. Separate data showed that retail sales rose far less than expected in July, indicating that rising living costs were starting to drag on consumer spending. Signs of persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding the long-term economic outlook amid tariff risks underscore the challenge the Bank of Japan faces in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, yields on superlong Japanese government bonds fell on Friday amid weak economic data and a report that the Ministry of Finance may further reduce issuance of such debt. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that his ministry will continue holding thorough discussions with bond market participants and implement appropriate debt management policies. In other news, a Bloomberg survey showed that Japanese equities are set to extend their bull run into next year, driven by optimism around a U.S. trade deal and ongoing corporate reforms. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.24% to 22.27.

The Japanese August Tokyo Core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Japanese July Industrial Production (preliminary) fell -1.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.1% m/m.

The Japanese July Retail Sales rose +0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.5% y/y.

The Japanese July Unemployment Rate was 2.3%, stronger than expectations of 2.5%.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Marvell Technology (MRVL) tumbled over -14% in pre-market trading after the chip designer posted in-line Q2 results and provided tepid Q3 revenue guidance.

Dell Technologies (DELL) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after reporting a slowdown in AI server orders in Q2 and a weaker-than-expected operating margin in its infrastructure unit.

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) surged more than +15% in pre-market trading after the fintech reported better-than-expected FQ4 results and gave a strong FY26 forecast for gross merchandise volume.

Autodesk (ADSK) climbed over +9% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and issued above-consensus Q3 guidance.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after the cosmetics retailer reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - August 29th

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