Nasdaq Futures Tread Water With Nvidia Earnings in Focus

September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are trending up +0.02% this morning, with investors in wait-and-see mode ahead of a highly anticipated earnings report from AI darling Nvidia.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher. Eli Lilly (LLY) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the drugmaker announced positive results from a late-stage trial of its experimental weight-loss pill. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) rising more than +1%. In addition, Boeing (BA) rose more than +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the planemaker announced that Korean Air ordered 103 planes. On the bearish side, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) slid over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after HSBC downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 97.4 in August, stronger than expectations of 96.4. Also, U.S. July durable goods orders fell -2.8% m/m, better than expectations of -3.8% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, unexpectedly climbed +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, the U.S. June S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +2.1% y/y from +2.8% y/y in May, in line with expectations. Finally, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high of -7 in August, stronger than expectations of -11.

“Consumers don’t appear afraid, but perhaps restrained. Corporate conference calls reveal what appears to be a resilient consumer, while retail sales echo similar reassurances,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday that he expects only a modest adjustment in interest rates, given his outlook for little variation in economic activity over the rest of the year.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12.7% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.

On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a hefty 50% tariff on certain Indian goods, the highest in Asia, to punish the country for purchasing Russian oil. The new tariffs, which double the existing 25% duty, took effect at 12:01 a.m. in Washington on Wednesday and will hit more than 55% of goods shipped to the U.S.

Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close. The chipmaker’s earnings reports have been market-moving since May 2023, when it delivered the revenue growth forecast that reverberated globally. Analysts expect another record in sales, driven by the continued robust demand for the company’s GPU chips used in generative AI applications. Investors will be listening closely to what CEO Jensen Huang says about demand in the current AI market after AI stocks were hit last week amid fears of a bubble.

“Today’s focus would be on Nvidia earnings, which is likely to set the tone for risky assets over the coming days,” said Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International.

Prominent companies like CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Agilent Technologies (A), and HP Inc. (HPQ) are also set to report their quarterly figures today.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data, which is set to be released later in the day. Economists expect this figure to be -2.000M, compared to last week’s value of -6.014M.

In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.257%, up +0.05%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.15% this morning, stabilizing after days of losses, while investors await Nvidia’s earnings and keep an eye on political developments in France. European stocks have slumped this week after French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou rattled markets on Monday by calling for a confidence vote. Mining and consumer stocks gained ground on Wednesday. At the same time, bank stocks underperformed after Bloomberg News reported that the Italian government was again looking to tap lenders’ profits as a way to support public finances. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the European Union plans to fast-track legislation by the end of the week to remove all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, a demand made by U.S. President Donald Trump before the U.S. lowers its tariffs on the bloc’s automobile exports. On the economic front, a survey released on Wednesday showed that German consumer sentiment is expected to decline for the third consecutive month in September amid households’ rising concerns over potential job losses and uncertainty about inflation. In corporate news, Porsche (P911.D.DX) rose over +1% after a report said the company is seeking a successor for CEO Oliver Blume, who will step down from the role to focus on his position as head of parent company Volkswagen.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index was released today.

The German September GfK Consumer Climate Index stood at -23.6, weaker than expectations of -21.5.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -1.76%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.30%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index erased early gains and closed sharply lower today, posting its biggest daily loss since April, as investors decided to take profits following a recent strong rally. Biotech and property stocks led the declines on Wednesday. At the same time, AI-related stocks advanced after the State Council unveiled an “AI Plus” initiative late Tuesday to promote the application of AI across areas such as technology and consumption. Data released on Wednesday showed that China’s industrial profits declined for a third straight month in July, as businesses struggled with weak domestic demand and persistent factory-gate deflation despite policy measures aimed at supporting the economic recovery. Industrial profits fell 1.5% in July from a year earlier, after a 4.3% decline in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The data added to a series of downbeat July economic reports that highlighted significant pockets of weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. Investor attention now turns to official PMI readings due on the final day of August. Meanwhile, Chinese equities have rallied this month amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions, expectations of new stimulus, and bullish market drivers such as stronger fund inflows, greater retail participation, and margin buying. However, analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment office said in a note, “The lifespan of this equity rally remains uncertain.” In corporate news, Ping An Insurance (Group) slid more than -3% after China’s largest insurer posted a drop in first-half net profit. At the same time, Cambricon Technologies rose over +3% after the AI chip designer swung to a profit in the first half.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, after swinging between gains and losses at the open. Pharmaceutical and utility stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Investor focus is now firmly on an earnings report from Nvidia. The chipmaker’s report could either boost or curb Wall Street’s rally in AI-related stocks and the Nikkei, which is heavily weighted toward chip-related names. Investors are also awaiting a series of Japan’s economic data releases later in the week, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. Meanwhile, longer-dated Japanese government bond yields climbed to a new all-time high on Wednesday after what analysts described as a “weak” outcome in the Bank of Japan’s regular debt purchase operations. In other news, the Japanese government, in a monthly report released on Wednesday, reiterated concerns about the risks U.S. trade policies pose to economic growth, leading it to downgrade its view on corporate profits. In corporate news, Nikon jumped over +20% after Bloomberg reported that Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica SA was exploring a potential deal to boost its stake in the optical equipment manufacturer. At the same time, Mitsubishi Motors fell nearly -2% after the automaker cut its full-year operating profit guidance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.25% to 23.49.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

MongoDB (MDB) jumped over +30% in pre-market trading after the database software company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

nCino (NCNO) surged more than +10% in pre-market trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and boosted its full-year guidance.

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) gained over +6% in pre-market trading after announcing it would reinstate its old logo following pressure from President Trump.

Okta (OKTA) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after the identity-security company reported better-than-expected Q2 results and lifted its annual outlook.

Krispy Kreme (DNUT) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - August 27th

NVIDIA (NVDA), RBC (RY), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Agilent Technologies (A), HP Inc. (HPQ), NetApp (NTAP), Pure Storage Inc (PSTG), Nutanix (NTNX), Cooper (COO), JM Smucker (SJM), Donaldson (DCI), Five Below (FIVE), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF), Bill Com (BILL), Greif Bros (GEF), Hafnia (HAFN), Up Fintech (TIGR), Kohl’s Corp (KSS), Photronics (PLAB), Phibro (PAHC), REX American Resources (REX).