Stock Index Futures Fall as Fed Independence Concerns Resurface, U.S. Economic Data on Tap

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.16%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.19% this morning as investors weigh U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and fresh tariff threats.

President Trump announced on Monday that he was dismissing Cook “effective immediately.” The move is based on allegations from one of Trump’s allies that Cook engaged in mortgage fraud, though the claims have not been confirmed. Cook said Trump had no authority to fire her, and she would not resign. Cook’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said they intend to take “whatever actions are needed to prevent” Trump’s “illegal action.” Analysts said the episode sounded alarm bells over the central bank’s independence.

Trump also threatened new tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against digital services taxes abroad. In addition, Trump told reporters on Monday that China must supply the United States with magnets or “we have to charge them 200% tariffs or something.”

Investors now await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended lower. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it agreed to buy Dutch coffee firm JDE Peet’s for $18.4 billion. Also, furniture stocks slumped after President Trump announced last Friday that the U.S. would launch an investigation into tariffs on furniture imports, with Wayfair (W) and RH (RH) sliding more than -5%. In addition, CSX Corp. (CSX) fell over -5% after CNBC’s Becky Quick reported that Warren Buffett told her Berkshire Hathaway has no interest in acquiring another railroad. On the bullish side, chip stocks gained ground, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow and Lam Research (LRCX) advancing over +1%.

Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. new home sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m to 652K in July from 656K in June (revised from 627K), though the figure was still stronger than expectations of 635K.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the August CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 96.4, compared to last month’s figure of 97.2.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data. Economists expect July Durable Goods Orders to drop -3.8% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders to rise +0.2% m/m, compared to the prior figures of -9.4% m/m and +0.2% m/m, respectively.

The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be reported today. Economists expect the June figure to ease to +2.1% y/y from +2.8% y/y in May.

The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -11 in August, compared to the previous value of -20.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

On the earnings front, notable companies like MongoDB (MDB), Okta (OKTA), and Box (BOX) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 15.7% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in September.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.302%, up +0.63%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.73% this morning as sentiment took a hit amid a political crisis in France. French stocks tumbled on Tuesday after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called a confidence vote that could topple France’s government as early as next month. The far-right National Rally party, the leftist France Unbowed, and the Greens all said they would vote against the September 8th motion, while the Socialists said they would not support the government. Also weighing on sentiment were growing concerns over the Fed’s independence following U.S. President Trump’s move to oust Fed official Lisa Cook. Bank stocks, whose performance closely follows the economy, led the declines on Tuesday. Semiconductor stocks also lost ground after Trump threatened to raise tariffs and impose export restrictions on countries that tax or regulate U.S. tech firms. On the economic front, a survey released on Tuesday showed that consumer confidence in France fell to a 2-year low in August. In corporate news, Commerzbank AG (CBK.D.DX) slid over -5% after Bank of America downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral.

France’s Consumer Confidence data was released today.

The French August Consumer Confidence came in at 87, weaker than expectations of 90.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.39%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.97%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, retreating from a 10-year high as sentiment turned cautious amid renewed trade worries. Rare earth stocks slumped on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that China must supply the United States with magnets or “we have to charge them 200% tariffs or something.” Trump added that Washington might use restrictions on airplane parts as leverage to counter Beijing’s dominance in the sector. Also, real estate stocks slid, giving up some of the gains sparked by Shanghai’s latest efforts to support the housing market. Limiting losses, consumer stocks climbed. Meanwhile, senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang is traveling to Washington this week to meet with U.S. officials, as the U.S. and China seek to chart a course beyond their current tariff truce. In other news, HSBC said on Tuesday that it remains Overweight on Chinese equities, citing rising earnings, reasonable valuations, policy support, and a large cash pile as supportive factors. In corporate news, Wasion Holdings surged over +11% in Hong Kong after the smart power meters manufacturer and system solutions provider posted strong first-half results. Investors are awaiting China’s industrial profits data for July, scheduled for release on Wednesday, for fresh insights into the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Attention will then shift to official PMI readings due on the final day of August.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today, snapping a two-session winning streak as domestic equities tracked overnight weakness on Wall Street. Automobile and pharmaceutical stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Also weighing on sentiment was U.S. President Trump’s move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Shuutarou Yasuda, a market analyst at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory, said, “The market was surprised with the news about Cook and reacted accordingly.” The yen climbed as much as 0.4% against the U.S. dollar following the news before erasing its gains. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said that the country remains concerned about foreign exchange movements. Meanwhile, Kyodo News reported on Tuesday that Japan’s finance ministry is planning to request a record 32.3865 trillion yen ($219.82 billion) for debt-servicing costs in the next fiscal year’s budget. On the economic front, Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday showed that a key gauge of Japan’s service-sector inflation unexpectedly slowed in July but remained elevated. In corporate news, Nissan Motor slumped over -6% after its second-largest shareholder, Mercedes-Benz, announced it would sell its 3.8% stake in the struggling Japanese automaker. Investor attention this week is on a series of Japan’s economic data releases, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.91% to 24.03.

The Japanese July Corporate Services Price Index rose +2.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.2% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Constellation Brands (STZ) fell more than -1% in pre-market trading after BofA downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $150.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the online broker would join the S&P 500 Index on Thursday, replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after Truist upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $213.

EchoStar (SATS) soared over +60% in pre-market trading after AT&T agreed to buy some wireless spectrum licenses from the company for about $23 billion.

Serina Therapeutics (SER) jumped more than +28% in pre-market trading after the drugmaker announced that the Food and Drug Administration had endorsed the trial for its experimental Parkinson’s disease treatment.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - August 26th

Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Ke Hldg (BEKE), MongoDB (MDB), Okta (OKTA), Box Inc (BOX), PVH (PVH), Ncino (NCNO), JOYY (JOYY), Tuya (TUYA), Ehang (EH), Prospect Capital (PSEC), Ooma Inc (OOMA), Citi Trends (CTRN).