S&P Futures Tick Lower Ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes and More Retail Earnings

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending down -0.13% this morning, continuing to drop after a tech-led selloff in the prior session, while investors await the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, comments from Fed officials, and earnings reports from more retail heavyweights.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping to a 1-1/2-week low. The Magnificent Seven stocks retreated, with Nvidia (NVDA) falling over -3% and Meta Platforms (META) dropping more than -2%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slumped more than -5% after GF Securities downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. In addition, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) cratered over -42% after the drugmaker released study results of its experimental weight-loss pill showing that nearly a third of patients discontinued treatment, raising concerns about potential side effects. On the bullish side, Intel (INTC) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after SoftBank Group agreed to buy $2 billion worth of the chipmaker’s shares.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. July housing starts unexpectedly rose +5.2% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.428 million, stronger than expectations of 1.290 million, while building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -2.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.354 million, weaker than expectations of 1.390 million.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday held firm on her stance about cutting interest rates, saying she hadn’t changed her view after dissenting from the majority of the Fed board in July on the need for a rate cut. “The story is out there, and that’s that. I haven’t changed my views,” Bowman said during an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Today, market watchers will pay close attention to the publication of the Fed’s minutes from the July 29-30 meeting, which will provide insight into the Fed’s stance on interest rates and the economy and could shed more light on the decision by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman to support a rate cut.

Also, market participants will hear perspectives from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic throughout the day.

On the earnings front, retailers such as TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), and Target (TGT), as well as notable companies like Analog Devices (ADI) and Estee Lauder (EL), are slated to release their quarterly results today. Investors will closely watch retail earnings for clues on consumer sentiment and tariff effects.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be -0.800M, compared to last week’s value of 3.036M.

Investor attention for the remainder of the week is squarely focused on the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, which begins Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks on Friday, is expected to outline the central bank’s new policy framework. Investors are watching to see whether Powell confirms the market’s pricing for a September rate cut or pushes back by stressing that incoming data before the next policy meeting could change the outlook. They’re also seeking signals about the longer-term path of Fed cuts heading into next year.

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 82.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 17.1% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.300%, down -0.05%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.01% this morning, paring earlier losses, supported by strength in defensive sectors. Personal care and utility stocks outperformed on Wednesday. At the same time, defense stocks continued to drop as optimism over progress toward a peace settlement in Ukraine weighed on the sector. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington could provide air support to Ukraine as part of a peace deal, but ruled out deploying troops on the ground. Data from Eurostat released on Wednesday confirmed that the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate held steady at 2.0% in July, unchanged from the prior month. Separately, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that Britain’s annual inflation rate rose to an 18-month high in July, increasing the likelihood that Bank of England policymakers will refrain from lowering rates next month. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that the trade deal between the U.S. and the EU is broadly in line with the central bank’s baseline assumptions, though uncertainty remains in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. On the monetary policy front, Sweden’s Riksbank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, while noting it sees some likelihood of a rate cut later this year. Investor focus later this week will turn to the Fed’s Jackson Hole economic symposium for signals on the rate outlook. In corporate news, Alcon (ALC.Z.IX) plunged over -9% after the medical device manufacturer cut its full-year net sales guidance.

U.K. CPI, U.K. Core CPI, Germany’s PPI, Eurozone’s CPI, and Eurozone’s Core CPI data were released today.

U.K. July CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +3.7% y/y.

U.K. July Core CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +3.7% y/y.

The German July PPI came in at -0.1% m/m and -1.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and -1.3% y/y.

Eurozone’s July CPI was unchanged m/m and rose +2.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s July Core CPI fell -0.2% m/m and rose +2.3% y/y, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.04%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.51%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier losses and closed higher today on remarks from the country’s foreign ministry that investors viewed as a sign of potential progress in U.S.-China trade talks. Sentiment improved in the afternoon session after China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, responding to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments, reiterated Beijing’s hope that the U.S. would cooperate with China to implement the consensus reached by the two presidents and pursue “positive outcomes” in economic talks based on equality, respect, and reciprocity. Mr. Bessent signaled on Tuesday that the U.S. is satisfied with the current tariff set up with China. “We have had very good talks with China. I imagine we’ll be seeing them again before November,” he said. Also aiding sentiment, China’s industry ministry said it convened a meeting with solar industry representatives, the second in two months, urging the sector to tighten regulations and curb excessive competition among firms. Meanwhile, China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the third straight month on Wednesday as authorities signaled they are in no hurry to roll out monetary stimulus despite a series of recent disappointing economic data. The one-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the five-year rate held steady at 3.5%, according to the People’s Bank of China. The official People’s Daily stated in a commentary that China “must continue to exert efforts in macro policies and increase them at an appropriate time to promote the continued implementation of existing and established policies while maintaining policy continuity and stability.” In corporate news, Pop Mart surged over +12% in Hong Kong after the toy company posted an approximately 400% year-over-year jump in first-half net profit.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street. Technology, heavy industry, and video game stocks led the declines on Wednesday. Domestic trade data added to the downbeat mood. Government data released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s exports in July posted the biggest drop in more than four years, falling for a third consecutive month as the impact of U.S. tariffs intensified, heightening concerns over the outlook for the export-reliant economy. Shipments to the U.S. dropped 10.1% year-over-year, dragged down by weakness in automobile exports. Capital Economics’ Marcel Thieliant said that Japan’s July exports data indicate that U.S. tariffs are beginning to “bite.” “We expect softer external demand to result in slower export growth over the coming quarters,” Thieliant added. At the same time, Japan’s monthly core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of capital spending, unexpectedly rose in June, snapping a 2-month decline. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds remained under pressure on Wednesday as worries grew over the nation’s debt burden and the government’s rising deficit spending. In other news, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday that documents memorializing trade deals with Japan and South Korea are “weeks away” from being ready. In corporate news, SoftBank Group slumped over -7% following a steep selloff in U.S. technology shares, while concerns over its investment in Intel continued to weigh on the company. Investor focus remains on Japan’s national core CPI data for July, scheduled for release on Friday, for clues on whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates again this year. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +3.84% to 25.15.

The Japanese July Trade Balance stood at -117.5B yen, weaker than expectations of 196.2B yen.

The Japanese July Exports fell -2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.1% y/y.

The Japanese July Imports fell -7.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of -10.4% y/y.

The Japanese June Core Machinery Orders came in at +3.0% m/m and +7.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.4% m/m and +5.0% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Estee Lauder (EL) slumped more than -7% in pre-market trading after the cosmetics company issued below-consensus FY26 adjusted EPS guidance.

Toll Brothers (TOL) fell over -3% in pre-market trading after the homebuilder reported weaker-than-expected FQ3 net orders and cut its full-year deliveries guidance.

La-Z-Boy (LZB) tumbled more than -24% in pre-market trading after the furniture maker posted weaker-than-expected FQ1 adjusted EPS and provided below-consensus FQ2 revenue guidance.

Snowflake (SNOW) rose over +3% in pre-market trading after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $240.

Lowe’s (LOW) gained about +3% in pre-market trading after the home-improvement retailer reported better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS, raised its full-year sales guidance, and announced the acquisition of Foundation Building Materials for about $8.8 billion.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - August 20th

TJX (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Analog Devices (ADI), Target (TGT), Estee Lauder (EL), Baidu (BIDU), Futu (FUTU), Nordson (NDSN), Huazhu (HTHT), Dycom Industries (DY), GDS Holdings (GDS), Coty Inc (COTY), Kingsoft Cloud (KC), Corporacion America Airports (CAAP), BBVA Argentina (BBAR), iQIYI (IQ), ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM), John B Sanfilippo&Son (JBSS), Jiayin (JFIN), National Energy Services (NESR).