Stock Index Futures Muted as Focus Turns to Retail Earnings, U.S. Housing Data Awaited

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.09%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.08% this morning as earnings from the nation’s retail heavyweights kicked off, shifting the focus to the strength of the American consumer.

Home Depot (HD) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after the giant home-improvement retailer reiterated its full-year guidance. However, the company reported slightly weaker-than-expected Q2 results. Investors will pay close attention to earnings reports from more U.S. consumer giants, including Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT), over the next few days for clues on the impact of tariffs.

Investors also assess the latest efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders concluded with a call for a summit with Russia. President Trump said he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and was working to set up a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, followed by a potential trilateral summit involving all three leaders. Zelenskyy said talks were positive and covered sensitive issues such as security guarantees, adding that he was prepared to meet with Putin bilaterally. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that Putin has agreed to meet with Zelenskyy.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed. EQT Corp. (EQT) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Roth Capital downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. Also, Intel (INTC) fell more than -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was in discussions to take a 10% stake in the company. In addition, Meta Platforms (META) dropped over -2% after the Information newsletter reported that the company is undertaking its fourth restructuring of its AI organization in the past six months. On the bullish side, Dayforce (DAY) soared over +25% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that private-equity firm Thoma Bravo was in talks to acquire the human resources management software provider. 

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed its AA+ long-term rating for the U.S. and its A-1+ short-term rating, while maintaining a stable outlook. “The stable outlook indicates our expectation that although fiscal deficit outcomes won’t meaningfully improve, we don’t project a persistent deterioration over the next several years,” it said in a statement. The ratings agency noted it expects strong revenues from the Trump administration’s newly implemented tariff regime to help offset the anticipated fiscal deterioration stemming from recent legislative changes.

Investors face a crucial week as the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium kicks off Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, potentially providing signals on the direction of interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks on Friday, is expected to outline the central bank’s new policy framework. Mr. Powell may also provide a fresh update on how much support exists for a September rate cut, at a time when the Trump administration is intensifying pressure to begin easing.

“If the Fed is going to cut next month, expect hints out of this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium,” said Scott Wren at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 16.9% chance of no rate change at September’s monetary policy meeting.

Today, market watchers will focus on U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect July Building Permits to be 1.390 million and Housing Starts to be 1.290 million, compared to the prior figures of 1.393 million and 1.321 million, respectively.

Investors will also look forward to earnings reports from home improvement chain Home Depot (HD), medical device firm Medtronic (MDT), and semiconductor electronics manufacturing firm Keysight Technologies (KEYS).

In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.329%, down -0.25%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.50% this morning as optimism over progress toward a peace settlement in Ukraine boosted sentiment. Mining stocks outperformed on Tuesday. Limiting gains, defense stocks slumped, weighed down by news of a potential Ukraine-Russia summit, as hopes for de-escalation dampened demand for military-related assets. Data from the European Central Bank released on Tuesday showed that the Eurozone’s adjusted current account surplus widened slightly in June as primary income gains offset a decline in the trade surplus. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Monday for talks, which Zelenskyy described as positive. President Trump told his Ukrainian counterpart that the U.S. would help guarantee Ukraine’s security under any peace agreement to end Russia’s war. Mr. Trump also noted that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and was working to set up a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, followed by a potential trilateral summit involving all three leaders. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Zelenskyy and Putin would meet within the next two weeks. In corporate news, JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD-.LN) climbed over +5% after Deutsche Bank raised its price target on the stock.

Eurozone’s Current Account data was released today.

Eurozone June Current Account stood at 35.8B euros, stronger than expectations of 33.4B euros.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.02%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.38%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed just below the flatline today, taking a breather a day after hitting a 10-year high. Technology and energy stocks slumped on Tuesday. At the same time, liquor and rare-earth stocks outperformed. Chinese shares staged a historic rally in recent months, driven by easing trade tensions with the U.S., stimulus hopes, and investors rotating funds from bonds and bank deposits into equities. Analysts noted that part of the 160 trillion yuan ($22.3 trillion) in household savings accumulated since the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to flow into stocks as deposit rates decline and property prices remain in a downturn. Meanwhile, China’s central bank injected a large amount of liquidity into the financial system on Tuesday, a move seen as helping to stabilize bonds that have faced pressure from investors shifting into equities. The People’s Bank of China added a net 465.7 billion yuan ($65 billion) of short-term cash through reverse repurchase agreements, marking the largest daily net injection since July 25th and the third largest this year. In other news, China eased its regulations on drama production to boost content supply, a move that analysts say will benefit producers and long-video streaming platforms. In corporate news, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group rose over +4% in Hong Kong after the company posted better-than-expected first-half profit. Investor attention now turns to China’s loan prime rate decisions amid expectations of additional stimulus from Beijing to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war. Still, BofA economists said in a research note that the PBOC is unlikely to lower policy rates for the remainder of the year.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index gave up earlier gains and closed lower today as investors booked profits on concerns that markets may have climbed too far, too fast. Wall Street’s muted overnight finish also weighed on the benchmark index. GCI Asset Management’s senior portfolio manager, Takamasa Ikeda, said, “Almost everyone in the market thinks that the market is overheated, so there is a sell-off even from a small negative cue.” Financial and video game stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds fell on Tuesday after a 20-year bond auction drew weaker-than-expected demand, signaling investor caution over longer-dated debt amid fiscal risks such as higher government spending and tax cuts. In other news, veteran ruling party lawmaker Taro Kono told Reuters on Tuesday that Japan needs to raise interest rates and restore fiscal discipline to strengthen a weak yen that has fueled inflation and strained households. In corporate news, SoftBank Group slid over -4% after the Japanese technology investor agreed to purchase $2 billion worth of Intel shares. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s national core CPI data for clues on whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates again this year. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.54% to 24.22.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Intel (INTC) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after SoftBank Group agreed to buy $2 billion worth of the chip maker’s shares.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) surged more than +6% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company posted upbeat FQ4 results and issued strong FQ1 and FY26 guidance.

Tegna (TGNA) gained over +3% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Sinclair offered to combine its broadcast TV business with the company.

Home Depot (HD) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after the giant home-improvement retailer reiterated its full-year guidance.

Caterpillar (CAT) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to Outperform from In Line with a $476 price target.

Fabrinet (FN) slumped more than -8% in pre-market trading even after the contract electronics manufacturer reported better-than-expected FQ4 results and issued solid FQ1 guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - August 19th

Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Viking Holdings (VIK), Amer Sports (AS), Xpeng (XPEV), ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO), Toll Brothers (TOL), Jack Henry&Associates (JKHY), Premier Inc (PINC), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Opera (OPRA), Ituran (ITRN).