S&P Futures Tick Higher With Focus on U.S. Retail Sales Data and Trump-Putin Meeting

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.17% this morning, bolstered by continued hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, while investors await U.S. retail sales data and high-stakes talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Tapestry (TPR) plunged over -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the fashion-brand company issued below-consensus FY26 EPS guidance. Also, Deere & Company (DE) slumped more than -6% after the agricultural and construction equipment maker cut the upper end of its full-year net income guidance. In addition, Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell over -1% after the computer networking company gave a cautious full-year forecast. On the bullish side, Eli Lilly (LLY) rose over +3% after the drugmaker announced it would raise the list price of its Mounjaro weight-loss treatment in the U.K. by as much as 170%.

Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y in July, much stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.9% m/m and +3.7% y/y in July, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -3K to 224K, compared with the 225K expected.

“This doesn’t slam the door on a September rate cut, but based on the market’s initial reaction, the opening may be a little smaller than it was a couple of days ago,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that it is still too soon for him to determine whether to support an interest rate cut at next month’s meeting. Asked whether a 50 basis point cut could be warranted next month, Musalem said that, in his view, such a move would be “unsupported by the current state of the economy and the outlook for the economy.” Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that she is not in favor of a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, saying that “would send off an urgency signal that I don’t feel about the strength of the labor market.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 7.4% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in September.

Investors await a meeting later today in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine. Trump cautioned there would be “very harsh consequences” if Putin failed to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine, while suggesting the possibility of a follow-up meeting that could include Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some European leaders. Meanwhile, Putin looked to strengthen his relationship with Trump ahead of their summit, commending the U.S. leader’s attempts to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine and offering the prospect of economic cooperation along with a new arms control agreement.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that Retail Sales will show a +0.6% m/m rise in July, the same as the previous month.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which rose +0.5% m/m in June. Economists expect the July figure to be +0.3% m/m.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be closely monitored today. Economists forecast that the preliminary August figure will stand at 61.9, compared to 61.7 in July.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released today. Economists expect Industrial Production to be unchanged m/m and Manufacturing Production to drop -0.1% m/m in July, compared to the June figures of +0.3% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index will be reported today. Economists foresee the Empire State manufacturing index standing at -1.20 in August, compared to last month’s value of 5.50.

U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes will be released today as well. Economists anticipate the export price index to rise +0.1% m/m and the import price index to rise +0.1% m/m in July, compared to the previous figures of +0.5% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.289%, down -0.09%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.61% this morning on optimism that the U.S.-Russia summit could serve as a first step toward brokering a peace deal in Ukraine. Mining and chemical stocks outperformed on Friday. The benchmark index is on track to post its second consecutive weekly gain, supported by a largely upbeat domestic earnings season and expectations for monetary easing in the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet later today in Alaska for their first in-person talks since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International, said, “We do expect some progress in today’s meeting and a path set for further discussions between Russia and the U.S.,” adding that “if we move towards a peace deal, it would be positive for the European markets.” In other news, the EU and U.S. are moving toward finalizing the trade deal that President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to in July. In corporate news, NKT A/S (NKT.C.DX) climbed over +8% after updating its full-year guidance. At the same time, Pandora A/S (PNDOR.C.DX) tumbled over -12% after the Danish jewellery maker posted weaker-than-expected Q2 organic revenue.

The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Friday.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.83%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.71%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today as weak economic data from the country bolstered expectations of new stimulus measures from Beijing to support growth. Real estate stocks climbed on Friday after Bloomberg News reported that China is planning to mobilize companies owned by the central government in Beijing to purchase unsold homes from struggling property developers. The benchmark index notched its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday showed that China’s economy weakened across the board in July, with factory activity, investment, and retail sales disappointing, indicating that Beijing’s crackdown on destructive price wars and the spillover effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are weighing on the world’s second-largest economy. Also, the country’s prolonged housing market downturn continued to weigh on growth, with the latest figures showing declining home prices and property investment. In addition, unemployment inched higher in July as millions of new graduates entered a sluggish labor market. China’s top leaders refrained from introducing any major new stimulus measures in July, a cautious approach that economists say will need to be reconsidered to keep this year’s 5% growth target attainable. ING economist Lynn Song said on Friday that “the slump in July’s data was more pronounced than expected,” noting that China needs to roll out additional stimulus measures. In other news, the Financial Times reported on Thursday that China is cautioning Western companies against stockpiling rare earths, warning they could face even greater shortages. In corporate news, JD.com slid over -3% in Hong Kong after the e-commerce operator posted a 51% drop in Q2 net income.

The Chinese July Industrial Production rose +5.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.0% y/y.

The Chinese July Retail Sales rose +3.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.6% y/y.

The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment rose +1.6% y/y in the January-July period, weaker than expectations of +2.7% y/y.

The Chinese July Unemployment Rate was 5.2%, weaker than expectations of 5.1%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today, posting a new record high, after the nation’s economy expanded faster than expected last quarter. Financial stocks led the gains on Friday, supported by expectations that a Bank of Japan rate hike might come sooner rather than later. The benchmark index posted strong gains for the week. Preliminary government data released on Friday showed that Japan’s economy expanded far more than expected in the second quarter, driven by robust domestic demand, strengthening the case for the BOJ to raise its benchmark rate again this year and offering embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba some rare good news. Separately, data showed that Japan’s June industrial production was unexpectedly revised upward. Meanwhile, Benjamin Shatil, an economist at JPMorgan Securities, said, “We continue to think that solid domestic demand data will necessitate a shift in the BOJ’s narrative that tariff-related uncertainty is weighing on activity,” adding that he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate in October. According to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists tracking the BOJ, about 42% of respondents said they anticipate a hike in October, while one-third expect a move in January. Governor Kazuo Ueda said last month that policymakers will continue to raise borrowing costs if they are confident domestic demand will remain stable. In other news, foreign investors bought a net 489.3 billion yen ($3.32 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in the week through August 9th, fueled by a series of strong earnings that propelled domestic equities to new record highs, according to data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.20% to 24.61.

The Japanese GDP has been reported at +0.3% q/q and +1.0% y/y in the second quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.4% y/y.

The Japanese June Industrial Production rose +2.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.7% m/m.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) surged over +12% in pre-market trading after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in a regulatory filing that it purchased about 5 million shares of the health insurer last quarter.

Intel (INTC) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was in talks to have the U.S. government take a stake in the company.

Salesforce (CRM) gained about +1% in pre-market trading after DA Davidson upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underperform.

Applied Materials (AMAT) plunged over -14% in pre-market trading after the largest chip-equipment maker in the world provided downbeat FQ4 guidance.

Target (TGT) fell more than -1% in pre-market trading after BofA downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $93.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - August 15th

Flowers Foods (FLO), So-Young (SY), T1 Energy (TE), Tuniu Corp (TOUR).