Stocks Supported by Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Strength in Chip Makers

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.06%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.04%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.04%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.05%.

Stock indexes today are slightly higher, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a new all-time high as dovish Fed comments pushed T-note yields lower.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1 bp to 4.27% after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports an interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and that she favors three interest rate cuts this year. 

Strength in chip makers is also a supportive factor for stocks today after Bloomberg reported that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to pay 15% of revenue from China chip sales to the US government, which boosts optimism that chip export restrictions to China will be eased.  Also, Micron Technology is up more than +5% after raising its Q4 sales estimate.

Gains in stocks are limited as hopes dim for an imminent end to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Markets last week initially found support on news of a Trump-Putin summit this Friday in Alaska.  However, over the weekend, comments from Ukrainian President Zelenskiy dampened hopes for a quick end to the war when he rejected any talk of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia.

Stocks are seeing support from speculation that weaker-than-expected US economic news and recent dovish Fed commentary will push the Fed to lower interest rates as soon as next month.  On Saturday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports cutting interest rates at the FOMC's next meeting in September and that she favors three rate cuts this year to "help avoid a further unnecessary erosion in labor market conditions and reduce the chance that the committee will need to implement a larger policy correction should the labor market deteriorate further."  The chances of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting rose to 89% from 40% earlier this month.

The price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is up more than +2% at a 4-week high, boosted by strong demand from institutional investors and corporate buyers, which are helping to lift the entire cryptocurrency market.  According to data from Coingecko, digital-asset treasury companies, listed vehicles that accumulate cryptocurrencies, have amassed a Bitcoin stockpile worth $113 billion thus far.

In recent tariff news, President Trump announced last Wednesday that he will impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports.  Still, companies would be eligible for exemptions if they demonstrate a commitment to building their products in the US.  However, the US will levy a separate tax on imports of electronic products that employ semiconductors.  Also, President Trump announced last Wednesday that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India's purchases of Russian oil.  Last Tuesday, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced "within the next week or so." According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced. 

The market's focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and any new trade or tariff news.  On Tuesday, the July US CPI is expected to edge up to +2.8% y/y from +2.7% y/y in June, and the July CPI ex-food and energy is expected to climb +3.0% y/y from +2.9% y/y in June.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall by -1,000 to 225,000.  Also on Thursday, the July final-demand PPI is expected to increase to +2.5% y/y from +2.3% y/y in June, and the July PPI ex-food and energy is expected to rise to +2.9% y/y from +2.6% y/y in June.  On Friday, July US retail sales are expected to climb +0.5% m/m and retail sales ex-autos are expected to rise +0.3% m/m.  Also on Friday, July manufacturing production is expected to remain unchanged m/m.  Finally, the University of Michigan’s Aug US consumer sentiment index is expected to climb by +0.3 to 62.0.

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 89% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and 62% at the following meeting on October 28-29.

Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  With over 82% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates. 

Overseas stock markets today are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 1-week high and is down -0.06%.  China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-month high and closed up +0.34%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 was closed today for the Mountain Day holiday.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.4 bp to 4.269%.  T-notes are moving higher on mounting speculation that the Fed may soon cut interest rates after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports an interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and that she favors three interest rate cuts this year.  T-notes also have carryover support from last Thursday when President Trump nominated Stephen Miran for Fed Governor to replace Adriana Kugler for the rest of the year.  Miran views President Trump's policies as disinflationary and would support a more dovish Fed policy. 

European government bond yields today are mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.1 bp to 2.691%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.3 bp to 4.568%.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Semiconductor stocks are climbing today after Bloomberg reported that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to pay 15% of revenue from China chip sales to the US government, which boosts optimism that chip export restrictions to China will be eased.  ON Semiconductor (ON), Applied Materials (AMAT), Qualcomm (QCOM), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +1%.  However, Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are down nearly 1% on the news. 

Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +6% after raising its fiscal Q4 sales estimate to $11.2 billion, plus or minus $100 million, from a previous estimate of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. 

Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are climbing today after the price of Bitcoin rose by more than +2% to a 4-week high.  As a result, Coinbase Global (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +3%.   

Sapiens International Corp NV (SPNS) is up more than +18% after Calcalist reported that Formula Systems is in advanced talks to sell control of the company for about $2 billion. 

Albemarle (ALB) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after operations were halted at a major Chinese mine, spurring speculation that the Chinese government might move to suspend other lithium projects to tackle overcapacity concerns. 

Elf Beauty (ELF) is up more than +6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $134.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is up more than +5% after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $74. 

Generac Holdings (GNRC) is up more than +2% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to hold from underperform with a price target of $200. 

AeroVironment (AVAV) is up more than +2% after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $305. 

C3.ai (AI) is down more than -29% after DA Davidson downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $13, citing preliminary earnings results that were "significantly below guidance." 

Monday.com (MNDY) is down more than -27% after reporting Q2 cash and cash equivalents of $1.59 billion, below the consensus of $1.61 billion. 

AAON Inc. (AAON) is down more than -21% after reporting Q2 EPS of 19 cents, well below the consensus of 32 cents. 

Hershey (HSY) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and chocolate makers on demand concerns after cocoa prices surged more than +9% to a 6-week high. 

Upstart Holdings (UPST) is down more than -1% after announcing it will offer $500 million of convertible senior notes due in 2032 in a private offering. 

Earnings Reports (8/11/2025)

AAON Inc (AAON), AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS), Celanese Corp (CE), Ralliant Corp (RAL), Roivant Sciences Ltd (ROIV).