Stocks Set for Muted Open as Investors Await U.S. Inflation Data and Trump-Putin Summit

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.09%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.05% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as investors await key U.S. economic data, especially the inflation report, and a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Financial markets found some reassurance in renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, with Trump and Putin preparing to meet in Alaska on Friday. The weekend saw intense diplomacy between U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials, including meetings in the U.K. with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. Still, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has maintained his refusal to cede territory occupied by Russia.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed higher, with the S&P 500 posting a 1-week high and the Nasdaq 100 notching a new record high. Gilead Sciences (GILD) climbed over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the biopharmaceutical giant posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. Also, Monster Beverage (MNST) gained more than +6% after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS. In addition, Expedia (EXPE) rose over +4% after the travel booking company posted stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year gross bookings guidance. On the bearish side, Trade Desk (TTD) plummeted more than -38% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the ad-tech company issued weak Q3 revenue guidance and announced that CFO Laura Schenkein will be replaced by Alex Kayyal.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that he backed policymakers’ recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged, adding that the central bank remains further from meeting the inflation side of its mandate. “Given the economy where it stands today, it seemed appropriate to maintain the policy rate at a constant for now,” Musalem said. He also said the most likely outcome is that the price effects from tariffs will be temporary, but added there is a “reasonable probability” they could prove more persistent. At the same time, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that she favors three interest rate cuts this year. “With economic growth slowing this year and signs of a less dynamic labor market becoming clear, I see it as appropriate to begin gradually moving our moderately restrictive policy stance toward a neutral setting,” Bowman said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 11.6% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting next month.

The U.S. consumer inflation report for July will be the main highlight this week. The recent U.S. ISM services PMI showed an unexpected increase in the prices paid sub-index, serving as a reminder that “inflation is still a force to be reckoned with,” according to Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. Citi economists said investors will be watching to gauge the extent to which tariffs are impacting prices after June’s report showed “early signs of larger increases in goods prices.” Investors will also monitor July retail sales data for clues on how tariffs are impacting consumers. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. PPI, the Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, the Export Price Index, the Import Price Index, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary).

Second-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Circle (CRCL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a 9.1% increase in Q2 profits from a year earlier, well above analysts’ forecast of 2.8%.

Market participants will also hear perspectives from several Fed officials, including Barkin, Schmid, Goolsbee, and Bostic, throughout the week.

In addition, investors will closely watch for any further updates on U.S. tariff plans for specific sectors. Last week, President Trump said that U.S. tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports would be announced “within the next week or so.” While some clarity was provided on chip tariffs last week, investors will be particularly eager for further updates on tariffs targeting the pharmaceutical sector.

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.258%, down -0.58%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.24% this morning as investors brace for a week dominated by key economic data from both sides of the Atlantic, along with trade and geopolitical developments. Defense stocks fell on Monday as a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday fueled hopes for a potential Ukraine peace deal. At the same time, healthcare stocks outperformed. Final data from the statistics agency Istat confirmed on Monday that Italy’s annual inflation rate held steady at 1.7% in July. Meanwhile, the trade truce between the U.S. and China is set to expire tomorrow, with uncertainty over whether it will be extended or if tensions will reignite. Investors are also awaiting the release of the second estimate of the Eurozone’s second-quarter GDP later this week. Germany’s and the Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes for August will also be in focus this week, as they will provide insight into how much relatively high U.S. tariffs on Eurozone goods have impacted sentiment. In corporate news, Orsted AS (ORSTE.C.DX) tumbled over -26% after the Danish wind farm developer announced plans for a 60-billion-crown ($9.4 billion) rights issue, citing unfavorable developments in the U.S. offshore wind market. Also, Northern Data AG (NB2.D.DX) sank more than -13% after Rumble said it was weighing an offer of about $1.17 billion for the German AI cloud company.

Italy’s CPI data was released today.

The Italian July CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.7% y/y, in line with expectations.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.34%, while Japan’s financial markets were closed for a holiday.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today as investors shrugged off underwhelming inflation data from the country and turned their attention to U.S.-China trade truce developments. Liquor and AI-related stocks led the gains on Monday. Also, lithium stocks jumped after battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. suspended operations at a major mine in China. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released over the weekend showed that China’s factory deflation persisted into the 34th month in July, while consumer prices held steady, highlighting the impact of weak domestic demand and ongoing trade uncertainty on consumer and business sentiment. Barclays analysts said in a research note that China’s deflationary pressures are likely to persist into the second half of the year. Meanwhile, investors are watching to see if the tariff truce between Beijing and Washington will be extended as the August 12th deadline nears. Analysts widely anticipate a 90-day extension of the trade truce following earlier talks in Stockholm. Ahead of the deadline, U.S. President Trump wrote on social media that he hoped China would significantly increase its purchases of American soybeans. The Financial Times reported on Sunday that China wants the U.S. to relax export controls on a critical component for AI chips as part of a trade deal before a possible summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. In other news, Bloomberg reported that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the U.S. government under a deal to obtain export licenses. Investor focus this week is on a slew of China’s official data, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and unemployment figures, which will provide the most comprehensive view yet of the country’s economic momentum in July. Investors are also awaiting earnings reports from tech heavyweights later this week, including Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba.

The Chinese July CPI rose +0.4% m/m and was unchanged y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y.

The Chinese July PPI fell -3.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.4% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Mountain Day holiday. The markets will reopen on Tuesday.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell over -2%, and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped more than -1% in pre-market trading following reports that both companies agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the U.S. government under a deal to obtain export licenses.

Tegna (TGNA) jumped over +29% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Nexstar Media Group was in advanced talks to acquire the company.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading after the price of Bitcoin climbed over the weekend. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up more than +4%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up over +4%, and Coinbase (COIN) is up more than +4%.

Adobe (ADBE) slid over -1% in pre-market trading after Melius Research downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold with a $310 price target.

C3.ai (AI) plummeted more than -31% in pre-market trading after the company posted downbeat preliminary FQ1 results.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - August 11th

Barrick Mining (B), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Ast Spacemobile (ASTS), Oklo Inc (OKLO), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Legend Bio (LEGN), AAON (AAON), Array Digital Infra (USM), Archer Aviation (ACHR), Celanese (CE), Ralliant (RAL), Telephone&Data Systems (TDS), Macerich (MAC), Mercury (MRCY), Kymera (KYMR), Rumble (RUM), Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE), ACV Auctions (ACVA), BigBearai Holdings (BBAI), Plug Power (PLUG), USA Rare Earth (USAR), Sphere Entertainment (SPHR), Yalla (YALA), Hillenbrand (HI), Dole (DOLE), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Harrow Health (HROW), Cannae (CNNE), Meridianlink (MLNK), Fluence Energy (FLNC), MidCap Financial Investment (MFIC), Apartment Invest (AIV), Highpeak Energy Acquisition (HPK), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), Exodus Movement (EXOD), Hallador (HNRG), Compass Minerals (CMP).