Can Gold Reach Another New High in Q3 2025?

The gold bull market began in 1999, when the Bank of England auctioned half its reserves, pushing the price to a low of $252.50 per ounce. I concluded my Q2 Barchart report on precious metals with the following:

Gold’s trend remains higher, and the trend is always a trader or investor’s best friend. Every correction since the 1999 bottom has been a buying opportunity, and I expect that trend to continue. Central banks continue to purchase gold to add to their reserves. Gold has become the second-leading reserve asset, surpassing the Euro currency as the second-leading reserve currency. The bottom line is that gold’s trend remains, for lack of a better word, golden, as the markets head into the second half of 2025.  

At above $3,440 per ounce in August 2025, gold’s bullish long-term trend remains firmly intact, and it has already reached another record peak in Q3.

The long-term trend remains bullish

Gold’s long-term path of least resistance remains higher in early August 2025. 

The quarterly continuous contract chart highlights the COMEX gold futures' bullish technical trend after posting seven consecutive quarterly record highs. The latest peak of $3,534.10 on August 8, 2025. The precious metal acehived another new peak, extending the streak to eight consecutive quarters. 

Central banks have an unending golden appetite

A weakening U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency, geopolitical and economic risks, and asset diversification have led central banks to continue to add to their gold reserves. 

In June 2025, the World Gold Council reported that central banks had accumulated over 1,000 metric tons of gold in each of the last three years, up from the average of 400-500 tons over the preceding decade. While the increase is significant, it likely understates gold purchases by China and Russia, two of the world’s leading gold-producing countries. Gold stockpiles are a matter of national security in China and Russia, so the statistics are unlikely to be accurate for these countries. China and Russia have increased their reserves through domestic production, likely resulting in underreporting their respective gold holdings. 

Factors supporting gold

The following factors support higher gold prices in August 2025:

• Central bank reserve increases validate gold’s role in the worldwide financial system.
• A weakening U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency, supports higher gold prices.
• Inflation above the Fed’s 2% target is positive for gold as the precious metal tends to appreciate during inflationary periods.
• Individual gold accumulation in portfolios continues. At $310.50 per share, the leading gold ETF product (GLD) had over $101.423 billion in assets under management. GLD trades an average of over 9.45 million shares daily and is only one of many gold ETFs that own physical gold bullion.
• Gold is the world’s oldest means of exchange, and its appreciation from under $255 in 1999 to over $3,400 per ounce in August 2025 validates its position as a store of value and critical reserve asset. 

The trend in any market is always a trader or investor’s best friend, and it remains bullish in August 2025. 

The danger of a correction rises with the price

While gold prices have risen to record peaks each quarter since Q3 2023, the risk of a correction increases with each new high. 

The monthly chart shows that before Q3 2023, buying gold during corrections was optimal. Gold futures experienced a 45.7% correction from the September 2011 record high of $1,923.70 to the December 2015 low of $1,045.40 per ounce. After trading to an all-time peak of $2,089.20 in August 2020, gold’s price declined 22.5% to a low of $1,618.30 in November 2022. While gold prices have experienced a parabolic rally from the November 2022 low there have been periodic corrections after reaching new highs over the past few years. The bottom line is that buying gold during price corrections has been optimal for years, and I expect that trend to continue. 

Bullish and bearish gold ETFs to consider

The following gold ETFs that own physical gold bullion are:

• At $312.58, GLD, with over $101.423 billion in assets under management, trades an average of over 9.20 million shares daily and is the leading gold ETF product.
• At $63.97, IAU, with nearly $47.588 billion in assets under management, trades an average of over 5.94 million shares daily.
• At $33.43, BAR, with over $1.115 billion in assets under management, trades an average of over 479,900 shares daily.
• Other gold ETFs holding physical gold bullion are SGOL, GLDM, IAUM, and AAAU.

For those looking to position for a gold downside correction, the following ETF products rise when gold’s price declines:

• At $2.14, GDXD is a triple-leveraged bearish gold ETF product with over $56.7 million in assets, that trades over 11.5 million shares daily. GDXD is only suitable for short-term bearish gold risk positions, as its triple-leverage exposes it to time decay and reverse splits, which erodes the ETF’s value.
• At $20.72, GLL is a double-leveraged bearish gold ETF product with over $67.39 million in assets, that trades over 454,400 shares daily. GLL is only suitable for short-term bearish gold risk positions, as its double leverage exposes it to time decay, which erodes the ETF’s value.
• At $6.71, DGZ is an unleveraged bearish gold ETN product with over $2.147 million in assets that trades only 1,010 shares daily. DGZ presents an additional risk as an ETN, as it depends on both the issuer’s credit and the gold price.
• At $1.83, DZZ is a double-leveraged bearish gold ETN product with over $3.29 million in assets that trades 3,765 shares daily. DZZ is only suitable for short-term bearish gold risk positions, as its double leverage experiences time decay that erodes the ETN’s value. Moreover, DZZ presents an additional risk as an ETN, as it depends on both the issuer’s credit and the gold price. 

There are many gold mining leveraged and unleveraged ETFs and ETNs, bullish and bearish products, that move in line with gold prices. Moreover, other diversified precious metals (GTLR) and diversified commodity ETF and ETN products contain exposure to gold along with other commodity prices. 

Time will tell if gold continues to reach further record highs in the coming quarters. At over $3,440 in August, the leading precious metal that is a commodity and a currency reserve asset will now set a course for achieving the nineth consecutive quarterly record high in Q4 2025. 

The latest news on a U.S. tariff on one-kilogram and hundred-ounce gold bars has created unprecedented disruption across precious metals markets, triggering a cascade of volatility in related derivatives instruments. I view the news as another bullish factor for gold and the other leading precious metals.