S&P Futures Gain as Investors Weigh Trump’s Fed Governor Pick; Gold Futures Jump on Tariff Report

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.32% this morning, capping a week dominated by tariff and geopolitical developments, as well as a wave of earnings, with investors weighing U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to tighten his grip on the Federal Reserve.

Gold futures in New York jumped after a Financial Times report said that U.S. imports of one-kilogram bullion bars are now subject to tariffs, posing a threat to trade flows from Switzerland and other major refining hubs. The most-active contract rose to a record intraday high above $3,534 an ounce.

Late Thursday, President Trump said he had selected Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve as a Fed governor. Mr. Trump said that Miran, who must be confirmed by the Senate, would serve only the remainder of Adriana Kugler’s term, which ends in January.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed. Fortinet (FTNT) plummeted over -22% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the cybersecurity firm was hit with multiple downgrades and price target cuts following the release of its Q2 results and guidance. Also, Eli Lilly (LLY) plunged more than -14% after the drugmaker reported disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill. In addition, Caterpillar (CAT) fell over -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $350. On the bullish side, chip stocks climbed after President Trump said firms that relocate production to the U.S. will be exempt from the proposed 100% tariff on chip imports, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising more than +5% and Lam Research (LRCX) gaining over +3%.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by 7K to 226K, compared with the 221K expected. Also, U.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity rose +2.4% q/q, stronger than expectations of +1.9% q/q, and unit labor costs rose +1.6% q/q, in line with expectations. In addition, U.S. consumer credit rose by $7.37 billion in June, weaker than expectations of $7.40 billion.

“With the jobless claims beginning to rise again, this adds to concerns about the employment picture that were raised last week,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that he still sees one rate cut as likely this year, and reiterated that there are reasons to doubt that the inflationary effects from tariffs will be short-lived. “This question about whether tariffs are a one-time thing, or whether they’re going to be more persistent in their effects and might even cause structural changes, I think is perhaps the most important question that we have today,” Bostic said.

In other news, Bloomberg reported that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate to become the central bank’s chair among President Trump’s advisers as they seek a successor to Jerome Powell.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.6% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will focus on a speech from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.249%, down -0.16%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.01% this morning, holding steady at the end of a week marked by tariffs, geopolitical developments, and a wave of corporate earnings. Mining and healthcare stocks advanced on Friday, while insurance stocks underperformed. The benchmark index is on track to post its biggest weekly gain since April. Meanwhile, the U.S. reversal on Japan has raised questions about the trade agreement with the European Union, according to Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. “In Japan, there is relief today upon hearing that the various tariffs will not be cumulative. However, it remains unclear whether the same rules apply for Japan and the EU,” Stanzl said. Switzerland suffered a fresh blow on Friday as gold futures hit a new record after a report said that the U.S. imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter said Thursday that her country would maintain intensive negotiations with the U.S., after departing Washington without securing relief from the 39% tariff rate. In corporate news, Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB.C.DX) climbed over +5%, extending yesterday’s gains after a late-stage study of rival Eli Lilly’s weight-loss pill revealed it fell short of matching the effectiveness of Novo’s injectable obesity treatment Wegovy. At the same time, Munich Re (MUV2.D.DX) slumped over -7% after the German reinsurer cut its full-year insurance revenue forecast.

The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Friday.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.12%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.85%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index gave up early gains and ended slightly lower today as caution prevailed ahead of the country’s inflation data and the looming U.S.-China trade truce deadline. Chip stocks slumped on Friday, pressured by a more than 8% slide in China’s largest chipmaker SMIC after it posted weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings. Despite Friday’s pullback, the benchmark index ended the week higher, buoyed by upbeat trade and services activity data. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for clarity on whether the tariff truce between Beijing and Washington will be extended ahead of the August 12th deadline. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he believed a deal was possible when asked about the possibility of extending the tariff truce. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump said he could impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, similar to the 25% levies placed on India over its purchases of Russian oil, depending on what happens. Morgan Stanley strategists advised investors to keep an eye on U.S.-China relations and highlighted the upcoming NPC Standing Committee meeting and Q2 earnings season as potential drivers of market direction. In other news, the combined market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is approaching the milestone level of 100 trillion yuan ($13.9 trillion), driven by strong fund inflows. Investor focus is now on China’s inflation data, scheduled for release on Saturday, for further clues about domestic demand and the overall state of the economy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today as clarity over U.S. tariffs and upbeat tech earnings boosted sentiment. Technology and automobile stocks led the gains on Friday. The benchmark index posted gains for the week. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said following a Thursday meeting with his U.S. counterparts in Washington that the U.S. had confirmed it would end the stacking of universal tariffs on Japan and proceed with the promised cuts to car duties. Akazawa said American officials expressed regret that the stacking rule had been applied to Japan despite a verbal agreement, and noted that Washington would refund any overpaid levies. Meanwhile, a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s July meeting showed that policymakers maintained their view for additional interest rate hikes despite elevated uncertainty surrounding tariffs. “If its outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized, the Bank, in accordance with improvement in economic activity and prices, will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation,” according to the summary. On the economic front, government data showed that Japan’s annual household spending rose less than expected in June as higher prices, especially for food, deterred purchases and added strain to broader consumption trends. The data came after Japan on Thursday cut its fiscal 2025 growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.2%, citing U.S. tariffs and persistent inflation. In corporate news, SoftBank surged over +10% after the technology investor swung to a quarterly profit. Also, Sony Group rose more than +3%, extending yesterday’s gains after the game and camera maker lifted its annual operating profit guidance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.79% to 24.70.

The Japanese June Household Spending came in at -5.2% m/m and +1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.0% m/m and +2.8% y/y.

The Japanese June Current Account n.s.a. stood at 1.348T yen, weaker than expectations of 1.480T yen.

The Japanese July Economy Watchers Current Index arrived at 45.2, weaker than expectations of 45.5.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Expedia (EXPE) surged over +17% in pre-market trading after the travel booking company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year gross bookings guidance.

Monster Beverage (MNST) climbed more than +7% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS.

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) rose over +6% in pre-market trading after the game developer posted stronger-than-expected FQ1 results and raised its full-year bookings guidance.

The Trade Desk (TTD) plummeted about -31% in pre-market trading after the ad-tech company issued weak Q3 revenue guidance and announced that CFO Laura Schenkein will be replaced by Alex Kayyal.

Pinterest (PINS) plunged more than -11% in pre-market trading after the photo-sharing website reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - August 8th

Emera Incorporated (EMA), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Lamar (LAMR), Tempus AI (TEM), Essent Group Ltd (ESNT), Algonquin Power (AQN), Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), Sotera Health (SHC), Atmus Filtration Tech (ATMU), Under Armour (UA), PAR Technology (PAR), The Wendy’s Co (WEN), Sylvamo (SLVM), Terawulf (WULF), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), ANI Pharma (ANIP), Calumet (CLMT), Fubotv (FUBO), China Yuchai (CYD), Docebo (DCBO), Koppers (KOP), Embecta (EMBC), Strawberry Fields Reit (STRW), American Axle&Manufacturing (AXL), Gray Television (GTNa), Gray Television (GTN), Himalaya Shipping (HSHP), AMC Networks (AMCX), Forum Energy (FET), Canopy Growth (CGC), CPI Card (PMTS).