S&P Futures Gain With Focus on Earnings and Fed Speak

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.24% this morning as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats and weak economic data, with the focus now shifting to a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

President Trump escalated his tariff offensive on Tuesday, stating that he will impose higher levies on countries purchasing energy from Russia and announce tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports soon. Still, solid corporate earnings and expectations that the Fed will resume interest rate cuts in September are buoying sentiment so far.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. Gartner (IT) tumbled over -27% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company cut its full-year revenue guidance. Also, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) plunged more than -20% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the drugmaker announced it would not advance Journavx following a failure to meet the primary endpoint in a recent trial. In addition, GlobalFoundries (GFS) slumped over -9% after the semiconductor manufacturer provided weak Q3 guidance. On the bullish side, Axon Enterprise (AXON) surged more than +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. ISM services index unexpectedly fell to 50.1 in July, weaker than expectations of 51.5. Also, the U.S. July ISM services prices paid sub-index unexpectedly rose to a 2-3/4-year high of 69.9, stronger than expectations of 66.5. At the same time, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to -$60.20 billion in June from -$71.70 billion in May, better than expectations of -$62.60 billion.

“The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high,” said Alexandra Brown at Capital Economics.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 85.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 14.5% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in September.

Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues, and investors await new reports from prominent companies today, including McDonald’s (MCD), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Uber Technologies (UBER), Shopify (SHOP), Applovin (APP), and DoorDash (DASH). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a 9.1% increase in Q2 profits from a year earlier, well above analysts’ forecast of 2.8%.

Investors will also focus on speeches from Fed officials following last week’s disappointing jobs report and the central bank’s decision to leave rates unchanged. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are scheduled to speak today.

On the economic data front, investors will monitor U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 0.200M, compared to last week’s value of 7.698M.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.239%, up +0.76%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.17% this morning as investors look past U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats and digest a flurry of corporate earnings reports. Industrial and financial stocks gained ground on Wednesday. Data from Eurostat released on Wednesday showed that Eurozone monthly retail sales rebounded in June, offering fresh evidence of an economy showing resilience amid tariff-related headwinds and other challenges. Separately, data showed that German factory orders unexpectedly fell for a second consecutive month in June, when the outcome of the EU-U.S. trade deal remained uncertain. Meanwhile, the ECB stated on Wednesday that rising competition from Chinese manufacturers has caused substantial job losses in the Eurozone in recent years, and warned that the threat is likely to grow as higher U.S. tariffs push Chinese firms to seek alternative markets. On the trade front, Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter arrived in Washington to make a final push for a deal to reduce the 39% tariff imposed last week by President Trump. In corporate news, Fresenius (FRE.D.DX) rose over +1% after the healthcare provider raised its full-year revenue guidance. Also, Vonovia SE (VNA.D.DX) gained more than +3% after the real estate company lifted its guidance for the full year. At the same time, Bayer AG (BAYN.D.DX) slumped over -4% after the German chemicals firm posted weaker-than-expected Q2 crop science sales. In addition, Glencore Plc (GLEN.LN) fell more than -3% after missing profit estimates.

Germany’s Factory Orders, Italy’s Industrial Production, and Eurozone’s Retail Sales data were released today.

The German June Factory Orders fell -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.2% m/m.

The Italian June Industrial Production rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.

Eurozone’s June Retail Sales rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.6% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.45%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.60%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, hitting its highest level in more than 3-1/2 years, buoyed by optimism that the trade truce between the United States and China will be extended to allow time for a final agreement. Defense and coal stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Also, robotics stocks jumped after emerging startup Unitree released a video showcasing a mechanical dog climbing slopes, spinning on one leg, and navigating rocky terrain. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he was “getting very close to a deal” with China to extend the current trade truce, which is set to expire on August 12th. “We’re getting along with China very well,” Trump added. Still, the U.S. president dismissed the idea that he was seeking a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating he would only meet his Chinese counterpart if it helped conclude trade negotiations. Investor attention now turns to a series of domestic economic data scheduled for later this week, including trade data on Thursday and inflation figures on Saturday, which will offer insights into the state of the economy. Data on credit supply and new loans may also be released this week. In corporate news, Boyaa Interactive International slid over -4% in Hong Kong after the online card and board games developer and operator provided weak first-half profit guidance.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed early losses and closed higher today as investors continued to scoop up beaten-down stocks following a sharp sell-off earlier this week. Automobile stocks advanced on Wednesday amid optimism that the country will be able to secure lower auto tariffs in talks with the U.S. Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is traveling to Washington as Tokyo seeks to push the U.S. to follow through on a promised cut to car tariffs made in last month’s trade agreement. Meanwhile, government data released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s real wages declined in June for the sixth straight month as inflation continued to outpace pay growth, fueling concerns about the strength of a consumption-driven recovery in the economy. Real wages, a key indicator of households’ purchasing power, fell 1.3% in June compared to the previous year, following a revised 2.6% decline in May. While June’s drop in real wages was the smallest since January, it underscores ongoing pressure on consumption. The Bank of Japan last week downgraded its assessment of consumption for the first time since March of last year and cautioned that it would remain stagnant for the time being, pressured by higher prices. In other news, Taro Kono, seen as a potential contender for the next prime minister, said on Wednesday that Japan needs to balance its budget and push the central bank to hike interest rates to ease concerns over the nation’s fiscal health. In corporate news, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rose over +4%, extending yesterday’s gains after the heavy machinery maker secured a landmark deal to build Australia’s next-generation warships. Also, Mitsui Fudosan climbed more than +5% after the property developer reported that its quarterly net profit nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +11.62% to 26.41.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Arista Networks (ANET) surged more than +12% in pre-market trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and issued solid Q3 revenue guidance.

McDonald’s (MCD) rose over +3% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged over -17% in pre-market trading after the AI server maker posted downbeat FQ4 results and provided disappointing FQ1 guidance.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker cautioned that its access to the vital China market remains uncertain, overshadowing solid Q2 results.

Snap (SNAP) tumbled over -17% in pre-market trading after the social media company posted a wider-than-expected Q2 loss.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - August 6th

McDonald’s (MCD), Walt Disney (DIS), Uber Tech (UBER), Shopify Inc (SHOP), Applovin (APP), DoorDash (DASH), McKesson (MCK), Airbnb (ABNB), Emerson (EMR), Fortinet (FTNT), CRH (CRH), Energy Transfer (ET), Cencora Inc (COR), Manulife Financial (MFC), Realty Income (O), MetLife (MET), Corteva (CTVA), AIG (AIG), Occidental (OXY), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Symbotic (SYM), NRG (NRG), TKO Holdings (TKO), Nutrien (NTR), Amrize (AMRZ), Iron Mountain (IRM), HubSpot Inc (HUBS), Atmos Energy (ATO), Corpay (CPAY), DraftKings (DKNG), STERIS (STE), CDW Corp (CDW), Texas Pacific (TPL), Carlyle Group (CG), TPG Inc (TPG), Royalty Pharma (RPRX), RB Global (RBA), NiSource (NI), Trimble (TRMB), Zillow Group Inc (ZG), Curtiss-Wright (CW), Global Payments (GPN), Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners (BNT), Bentley (BSY), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Fidelity Financial (FNF), Duolingo (DUOL), Dynatrace Inc (DT), CF Industries (CF), Western Midstream Partners (WES), Unity Software (U), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Paycom Soft (PAYC), Owens Corning (OC), IONQ (IONQ), Lineage (LINE), Pinnacle West (PNW), Permian Resources (PR), Royal Gold (RGLD), Dutch Bros (BROS), CACI (CACI), U-Haul Holding (UHAL), Amdocs (DOX), Planet Fitness Inc (PLNT), EXACT Sciences (EXAS), Watts Water Technologies (WTS), NewYork Times (NYT), Primerica (PRI), Bio-Techne (TECH), Dayforce (DAY), Charles River Laboratories (CRL), Parsons (PSN), Federal Realty (FRT), ESAB Corp (ESAB), Light Wonder (LNW), MarketAxesss (MKTX), ICL Israel Chemicals (ICL), UGI (UGI), Middleby Corp (MIDD), Informatica (INFA), Sunoco LP (SUN), Owl Rock Capital (OBDC), Wix.Com Ltd (WIX), Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL), Revolution Med (RVMD), APA Corp (APA), Kinetik Holdings (KNTK), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Caretrust Inc (CTRE), ELF Beauty (ELF), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Chord Energy (CHRD), LYFT (LYFT), Coeur Mining (CDE), Southwest Gas Hold (SWX), Choice Hotels (CHH), FS KKR Capital (FSK), South Bow (SOBO), Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN), Vertex (VERX), Ormat (ORA), Lantheus Holdings Inc (LNTH), Sitime Corp (SITM), Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), ADMA Biologics Inc (ADMA), Valvoline (VVV), Ingram Micro Holding (INGM), Copa (CPA), Nelnet (NNI), Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO), Avnet (AVT), F G Annuities Life (FG), Verra Mobility (VRRM), ACADIA (ACAD), Griffon (GFF), Hecla Mining (HL), Rayonier (RYN), Perrigo (PRGO), Brinks (BCO), Enersys (ENS), Oscar Health (OSCR), Geo (GEO), Scholar Rock (SRRK), Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH), Murphy Oil (MUR), National Health Investors (NHI), Crane NXT (CXT), Remitly Global (RELY), Dave Inc (DAVE), Magnite (MGNI), Six Flags Entertainment (FUN), Avista (AVA), Inter and Co A (INTR).