Stocks See Support from Strong Earnings and Rate Cut Speculation

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.20%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.15%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.26%.

Stock indexes are mildly higher today, extending Monday’s rally.  Gains in technology stocks are boosting the overall market higher, led by an +8% jump in Palantir Technologies after it reported stronger-than-expected profits and raised its full-year forecasts.  Stocks have continued support from speculation that last Friday’s dismal payroll and ISM manufacturing reports will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates.  The chances of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting rose to 92% from 40% before the reports were released.

The US trade deficit for June was smaller than expected, a positive factor for Q2 GDP. The June US trade deficit shrank to -$60.2 billion from -$71.7 billion in May, better than expectations of -$61.0 billion and the smallest deficit in 1.75 years.

Dovish comments late Monday from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly were supportive for stocks when she said the time is nearing for Fed interest rate cuts, given mounting evidence that the job market is softening and there are no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation.

In recent tariff news, President Trump said Monday that he would be “substantially raising” the tariff on US imports from India from the current 25% due to India’s purchases of Russian oil.  Last Thursday, President Trump raised tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35% from 25% and announced a 10% global minimum, along with tariffs of 15% or higher for countries with trade surpluses with the US, effective after midnight on August 7. According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced. 

The markets this week will focus on earnings reports and any fresh tariff or trade news. Later today, the July ISM services index is expected to climb by +0.7 to 51.5.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +3,000 to 221,000.  Also on Thursday, Q2 nonfarm productivity is expected to be +2.0% with unit labor costs rising +1.5%.

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 92% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and 65% at the following meeting on October 28-29.

Q2 earnings reports released thus far suggest that S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +9.1% for the second quarter, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  With over 66% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, around 82% exceeded profit estimates. 

Overseas stock markets today are higher.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up by +0.51%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.96%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.64%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -6 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.9 bp to 4.222%.  Sep T-notes today fell from a 3-month high, and the 10-year T-note yield moved up from a 3-month low of 4.183%.  

Strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for government securities and is weighing on T-note prices.  Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $125 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in this week’s August quarterly refunding, beginning with today’s $58 billion auction of 3-year T-notes.

T-notes found support from dovish comments late Monday from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said the time is nearing for Fed interest rate cuts given labor market weakness and no signs of tariff inflation.  T-notes also have positive carryover support from last Friday’s weaker-than-expected payroll and ISM manufacturing reports, which boosted the chance of a Fed rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting to 92% from 40% before the reports. 

European government bond yields today are moving higher.  The 10-year German bund yield rebounded from a 1.5-week low of 2.601% and is up +1.0 bp to 2.634%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rebounded from a 1-month low of 4.496% and is up +0.5 bp to 4.514%.

The Eurozone July S&P composite PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 50.9 from the previously reported 51.0.

The UK July S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +0.5 to 51.5 from the previously reported 51.0.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 13% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Axon Enterprise (AXON) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 net sales of $668.5 million, above the consensus of $640.3 million, and raising its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast to $665 million-$685 million from a previous forecast of $650 million-$675 million. 

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +8% after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.0 billion, stronger than the consensus of $939.3 million, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $4.14 billion-$4.15 billion from a previous forecast of $3.89 billion-$3.90 billion. 

Cummins (CMI) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 net sales of $8.64 billion, above the consensus of $8.46 billion.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 93 cents, better than the consensus of 80 cents.

DuPont de Nemours (DD) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.12, better than the consensus of $1.06, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $4.40 from a previous view of $4.30-$4.40. 

Pfizer (PFE) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 revenue of $14.65 billion, higher than the consensus of $13.50 billion. 

Zoetis (ZTS) is up more than +1% after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.46 billion, better than the consensus of $2.41 billion, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $9.45 billion-$9.60 billion from a previous forecast of $9.43 billion-$9.58 billion, stronger than the consensus of $9.50 billion. 

Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) is down more than -37% after cutting its full-year revenue forecast to $900 million-$910 million from a previous forecast of $940 million-$955 million, well below the consensus of $949.2 million. 

Gartner (IT) is down more than -28% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year revenue forecast to $6.46 billion from a previous forecast of $6.54 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.57 billion. 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is down more than -15% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after it said it won’t advance its Journavx to a phase-3 trial, as the FDA said it doesn’t see a path forward for broad use of the drug to treat peripheral neuropathic pain. 

GlobalFoundries (GFS) is down more than -12% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of 33 cents-43 cents, the midpoint below the consensus of 42 cents.

TransDigm Group (TDG) is down more than -11% after reporting Q3 net sales of $2.24 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.30 billion, and lowered its full-year net sales forecast to $8.76 billion-$8.82 billion from a previous forecast of $8.75 billion-$8.95 billion.

Eaton Corp (ETN) is down more than -6% after forecasting full-year organic revenue of +8.50% to 9.50%, the midpoint below the consensus of 9.09%.

MercadoLibre (MELI) is down more than -1% after reporting Q2 operating income of $825 million, weaker than the consensus of $869.6 million.

Earnings Reports (8/5/2025)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Aflac Inc (AFL), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Apollo Global Management Inc (APO), Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM), Arista Networks Inc (ANET), Assurant Inc (AIZ), Ball Corp (BALL), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Caterpillar Inc (CAT), Cummins Inc (CMI), DaVita Inc (DVA), Devon Energy Corp (DVN), Duke Energy Corp (DUK), DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD), Eaton Corp PLC (ETN), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Fidelity National Information (FIS), Fox Corp (FOXA), Gartner Inc (IT), Henry Schein Inc (HSIC), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Jacobs Solutions Inc (J), Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS), Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC), Marriott International Inc/MD (MAR), Match Group Inc (MTCH), Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP), Mosaic Co/The (MOS), News Corp (NWSA), Pfizer Inc (PFE), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Skyworks Solutions Inc (SWKS), Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI), TransDigm Group Inc (TDG), Yum!  Brands Inc (YUM), Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA), Zoetis Inc (ZTS).