Commodity Market Roundup- July’s Top Performers and Underperformers

A stronger dollar index and a decline in long-term bond prices were primarily bearish factors for commodities in July. The September dollar index moved 3.37% higher, while the September U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures fell 1.08% to 114-06 at the end of July. However, the commodities asset class responded to the moves in the debt and currency markets with mixed results. 

There were gains and losses across all sectors for the month ending on Thursday, July 31, in a month where some commodities experienced substantial volatility.

The double-digit percentage gains in two markets, while two markets posted double-digit percentage losses, for July. 

Ethereum and FCOJ Post Double-Digit Percentage Gains

Ethereum, the second-leading cryptocurrency, posted the most substantial percentage gain in July 2025 as it caught up with recent gains in Bitcoin. 

The monthly chart highlights Ethereum’s 49.55% monthly gain that pushed the price to over the $3,740 per token level at the end of July.

Frozen concentrated orange juice futures led the way on the upside in the commodities asset class. 

The continuous monthly FCOJ futures chart illustrates the gain of 15.83% in July. FCOJ futures fell from the July high and were significantly lower on August 1. 

While Ethereum and FCOJ rose over 10%, there were other notable gains of over 8% in palladium, WTI and Brent crude oil, and Bitcoin in July. 

Copper and Natural Gas Post Double-Digit Percentage Declines

U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures posted a double-digit percentage decline in July 2025. 

The monthly chart highlights the 11% decline in natural gas futures. Meanwhile, the energy commodity traded in a $2.972 to $3.657 per MMBtu range in July 2025, compared to a $1.991 to $2.602 per MMBtu range in July 2024. Despite the decline, natural gas prices remain strong compared to the prior years because of U.S. inventories and increasing demand for U.S. LNG exports. 

The chart shows that while natural gas inventories across the United States for the week ending on July 25 were 6.7% higher than the five-year average, they were 3.8% below the level in late July 2024. The lower inventory level supported the higher price range in July 2025 compared with July 2024. 

COMEX copper futures had a wild and volatile month, ending July with a 14.32% decline, leading the asset class on the downside. 

The monthly chart illustrates copper’s rally to a new all-time high of $5.9585 per pound in early July when US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on the red metal. On July 30, after the Fed meeting, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 50% trade barrier on some copper products, causing price carnage as the COMEX futures premium over the LME copper forwards evaporated in one trading session. I highlighted copper’s price explosion and implosion in my July 31 Barchart article on the copper market. 

Copper futures formed a bearish key reversal pattern on the monthly chart in July.

Mixed results in precious metals and soft commodities- Mostly higher in energy- Cattle Rally- Grains, oilseeds, and hogs move lower

Precious metals were mixed in July after silver, platinum, and palladium formed bullish reversals on their quarterly charts and gold rose to a new high for the seventh consecutive quarter in Q2. While palladium led the way higher with a nearly 9% gain, silver was up just under 1.5%. Platinum declined 3.27%, and gold edged 0.44% lower in July.  

ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI crude oil futures posted 8.85% and 8.47% respective gains in July 2025. Oil products followed crude oil futures higher, with an increase of 6.45% in nearby gasoline futures and a rise of 6.40% in the nearby heating oil futures. Crack or refining spreads edged higher as gasoline and heating oil, a proxy for distillate oil products, marginally outperformed the raw petroleum futures. Gasoline cracks rose 0.05%, while the distillate processing spreads increased 2.02% in July 2025. Ethanol, a biofuel blended with gasoline in the U.S., rose 4.19%, while coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, fell 2.59% in July. Natural gas futures fell 11% for the month ending on July 31. 

The grain and oilseed sector posted across-the-board declines as the 2025 growing season progresses, with ample supplies to meet the global requirements. New crop November soybean futures fell 3.68%. New crop December corn futures declined by 2.76%, while the September CBOT wheat futures fell 2.79%. 

Soft commodities were mostly lower, led by a 15.83% gain in FCOJ futures, which continued to experience supply issues. While nearby world sugar futures gained 0.93%, cotton futures were 1.29% lower. Arabica coffee futures fell 1.43%, while the continuous cocoa futures contract declined 5.49% in July. 

In the animal protein sector, the active month futures moved to the offseason October contracts. Lean hog futures fell 3.06%, while October live and feeder cattle futures posted 6.17% and 7.02% respective gains. Both cattle futures posted new record highs on the continuous cattle futures contracts in July. 

Cryptos Rise- Stocks Higher, Bonds Lower

Bitcoin rallied 8.62% in July, closing the month at over $116,850 per token. Meanwhile, Ethereum exploded 49.55% higher in July, closing the month near the $3,745 level. Ethereum caught up with Bitcoin in July.  

The S&P 500 index rose 2.17% in July as U.S. trade deals, inflation below the 3% level, technology earnings, and other economic indicators supported the overall stock market. 

Meanwhile, the September U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures fell 1.08% in July, keeping pressure on long-term interest rates. The FOMC did not reduce the Fed Funds Rate at the most recent July 30 meeting, but the odds for a rate cut before the end of the year remain high. The Fed highlighted a dissent by two committee members who favored a 25 basis point Fed Funds Rate reduction. It marked the first time since 1993 that two committee members dissented from the majority opinion.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index rebounded from the recent low.

The monthly chart illustrates the dollar index’s bounce from the new 96 low in July to close the month at over 99.70. The bearish trend that began in January has made lower lows and remains below its technical resistance level, despite the gain. The index rose 3.37in July, settling at 99.743 on July 31. The index broke below critical technical support at the July 2023 low of 99.22 in April and traded to the lowest level since February 2022 at 96 during the month. 

A rising dollar and falling bonds tend to be bearish for commodity prices, but the raw material markets turned in mixed results despite the price action in the debt and currency markets in July. 

Factors to watch in August 2025

As I have written in the past monthly reports:

Trends are a trader or investor’s best friend in markets across all asset classes, and commodities are no exception. Approach markets with a risk-reward plan and stick to the program. Accepting small losses in the quest for oversized gains is always acceptable. Therefore, stick to loss levels when markets move contrary to expectations but adjust risk-reward dynamics to protect capital and gains when markets move in the desired direction.

As the raw materials sector moves into August, seasonality in natural gas during the cooling season, gasoline during the driving season, and cattle and hogs during the grilling season could continue to support prices. However, these seasonal trends are at a late stage, and futures reflect deferred prices. We could see corrections in seasonal commodities begin to develop. 

Precious metals remain in mostly bullish trends, with very bullish Q2 quarterly key reversals in silver, platinum, and palladium. Copper and base metals are volatile, with the red metal now threatening to challenge the $4 per pound technical support on the nearby COMEX futures contract. 

The path of least resistance in grains and oilseeds remains bearish, while we should expect continued volatility in energy and soft commodities. The following macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could cause periods of increased price variance over the coming weeks:

• The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and relations between the U.S. and countries worldwide could cause bouts of volatility if hostilities rise or peace talks lead to agreements- no change from last month.
• U.S. policies under the Trump administration could continue to cause market turmoil. Tariffs are trade barriers that affect global raw material prices, creating distortions that can lead to sudden price fluctuations. However, trade deals have caused tariff fears to diminish over the past weeks.
• The Chinese economy remains critical as China is the demand side of the equation for many commodity markets.
• Expect liquidity in markets to decline during the final month of summer vacations in August. Less liquidity tends to create the potential for higher volatility.
• The U.S. debt could lead to volatility in the bond and stock markets. 

Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in August and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.