Stock Index Futures Gain Ahead of U.S. GDP Data and Fed Rate Decision, Microsoft and Meta Earnings on Tap

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.12%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.21% this morning, pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street, while investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, including the ADP employment report and the first estimate of second-quarter GDP, as well as earnings reports from “Magnificent Seven” companies Microsoft and Meta.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. United Parcel Service (UPS) slumped over -10% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after the delivery company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and said it would not provide full-year revenue or operating profit guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty. Also, Brown & Brown (BRO) plunged more than -10% after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q2 organic revenue growth. In addition, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and provided below-consensus FY25 guidance. On the bullish side, Corning (GLW) surged more than +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the maker of specialty glass and ceramics reported better-than-expected Q2 results and issued above-consensus Q3 core EPS guidance.

A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 7.437 million in June, weaker than expectations of 7.510 million. At the same time, the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July, stronger than expectations of 95.9. In addition, the U.S. May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +2.8% y/y from +3.4% y/y in April, weaker than expectations of +2.9% y/y.

“Overall, it was a mixed round of data that has done little to materially challenge the price action or macro narrative,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.

Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The decision comes amid intense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents. Market watchers will follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for any indication of a greater openness from the central bank to ease policy when it next meets in September.

Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full force. Investors will be closely monitoring earnings reports today from “Magnificent Seven” companies Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META). Prominent companies like Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM), Lam Research (LRCX), and Altria (MO) are also scheduled to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, exceeding the pre-season estimate of +2.8%.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the Commerce Department’s first estimate of gross domestic product, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP growth will stand at +2.5% q/q in the second quarter, compared to the first-quarter figure of -0.5% q/q.

The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the July figure to come in at 77K, compared to the June figure of -33K.

U.S. Pending Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists forecast the June figure at +0.2% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +1.8% m/m.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -2.300M, compared to last week’s value of -3.169M.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.326%, down -0.21%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.28% this morning as investors digest key economic data from the region and fresh corporate earnings reports, while also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Energy stocks led the gains on Wednesday, while chemical and automobile stocks lost ground. Preliminary data from Eurostat released on Wednesday showed that the Eurozone economy slowed in the second quarter but demonstrated resilience, signaling a potential rebound in the coming months despite higher U.S. tariffs on its exports. Separately, a survey showed that the Eurozone business sentiment indicator rose to a 5-month high in July. In addition, the European Central Bank’s wage tracker showed on Wednesday that wage growth in the Eurozone will slow significantly this year, reinforcing the bank’s view that excessive inflation has now been brought under control. Meanwhile, earnings projections released on Tuesday showed that the outlook for European corporate health has brightened, following the EU’s trade agreement with the U.S. In corporate news, HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.LN) fell over -2% after the lender posted weaker-than-expected first-half pretax profit. Also, Adidas AG (ADS.D.DX) slumped more than -6% after cautioning that higher U.S. tariffs would tack on roughly 200 million euros ($231 million) to its costs in the second half.

Germany’s Retail Sales, Spain’s CPI (preliminary), Eurozone’s GDP (preliminary), Eurozone’s Business and Consumer Survey, and Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence data were released today.

The German June Retail Sales rose +1.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

The Spanish July CPI rose +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.3% y/y.

Eurozone’s GDP has been reported at +0.1% q/q and +1.4% y/y in the second quarter, stronger than expectations of no change q/q and +1.2% y/y.

Eurozone’s July Business and Consumer Survey stood at 95.8, stronger than expectations of 94.5.

Eurozone’s July Consumer Confidence came in at -14.7, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.17%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.05%. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher and hit a 9-month high today as investors found some relief from the prospects that the U.S.-China tariff truce will be extended. U.S. and Chinese officials agreed on Tuesday to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce, following two days of what both sides called constructive talks aimed at defusing a trade war that poses risks to global growth. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to make the final decision on extending the truce with China before it expires in two weeks, a move that would signal continued stabilization in relations between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed any expectations that Trump would reject the extension. Meanwhile, Chinese leaders signaled they would hold off on introducing additional major stimulus for now, as authorities shift their focus to tackling excess capacity in the economy. The ruling Communist Party’s Politburo, China’s top policymaking body, vowed on Wednesday to more effectively implement existing pro-growth measures, according to a readout by state-run Xinhua News Agency. Authorities will tackle excessive competition among enterprises and promote the regulation of overcapacity in major industries, while also tightening oversight of local government investment-attraction practices, according to the readout. The Politburo meeting maintained a cautious policy stance, reaffirming macroeconomic guidance issued in April. “Macroeconomic policies must remain robust and be strengthened when necessary,” it said. In corporate news, Li Auto tumbled over -12% in Hong Kong as investors grew concerned over the pricing of its first all-electric SUV, the Li i8, and rising competition.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed just below the flatline today as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of policy decisions from the Fed and Bank of Japan, along with U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. Retail and chip stocks underperformed on Wednesday, while real estate and bank stocks gained ground. On Friday, the majority of U.S. trading partners that have yet to finalize agreements with Washington will be subjected to higher reciprocal tariffs. Maki Sawada, an equities strategist at Nomura Securities, said, “There are still a lot of uncertainties over tariffs, and that’s going to limit the upside for stocks.” Meanwhile, BofA Global Research lifted its year-end forecast for the Nikkei 225 Index to 43,000 from 40,000. The new forecast reflects the U.S.-Japan trade deal, expectations for Japan’s fiscal expansion, and a favorable supply-demand environment, according to strategists. Investor focus is now on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to hold its policy rate steady at 0.5% at its two-day meeting concluding Thursday. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s reaction to the U.S. trade deal will be in focus after his deputy stated that the agreement increased the chances of economic projections being met, a key condition for an additional rate hike. The central bank will also release its quarterly projections for growth and inflation. In other news, Japan’s ruling coalition agreed on Wednesday with four major opposition parties to scrap a provisional gasoline tax as early as this year, yielding to opposition pressure after a major election loss. In corporate news, ANA Holdings slid over -4% after the airline reported a 7.1% drop in Q1 net income. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +1.45% to 23.04.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Humana (HUM) rose more than +8% in pre-market trading after the health insurer reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Qorvo (QRVO) surged over +9% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor company posted better-than-expected FQ1 results and provided above-consensus FQ2 guidance.

LendingClub (LC) jumped over +23% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and issued strong Q3 guidance for loan originations and preprovision net revenue.

Starbucks (SBUX) climbed more than +4% in pre-market trading after the coffee chain reported better-than-expected FQ3 revenue.

Seagate Technology (STX) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading after the data storage company issued soft FQ1 guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - July 30th

Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM), Lam Research (LRCX), ADP (ADP), UBS Group (UBS), Trane Technologies (TT), Altria (MO), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Equinix (EQIX), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Carvana (CVNA), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), American Electric Power (AEP), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), Public Storage (PSA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), Garmin (GRMN), Ford Motor (F), Kenvue (KVUE), Verisk (VRSK), Entergy (ETR), Hershey Co (HSY), Cognizant (CTSH), Fair Isaac (FICO), Prudential Financial (PRU), eBay (EBAY), DexCom (DXCM), VICI Properties (VICI), WEC Energy (WEC), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Extra Space Storage (EXR), Tradeweb Markets (TW), Ventas (VTR), Banco Bradesco (BBD), AvalonBay (AVB), Humana (HUM), American Water Works (AWK), Smurfit Westrock (SW), Western Digital (WDC), PTC (PTC), FirstEnergy (FE), Tyler Technologies (TYL), Check Point Software (CHKP), CGI Inc (GIB), AerCap Holdings NV (AER), Invitation Homes (INVH), Kinross Gold (KGC), Carlisle (CSL), Mid-America Apartment (MAA), Gfl Environmental (GFL), Watsco (WSO), Fortive (FTV), F5 Networks (FFIV), Sun (SUI), Sprouts Farmers (SFM), Bunge (BG), Align (ALGN), Hologic (HOLX), UDR (UDR), Everest (EG), Entegris (ENTG), IDEX (IEX), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Neurocrine (NBIX), Clean Harbors (CLH), Evercore (EVR), Morningstar (MORN), CH Robinson (CHRW), Host Hotels Resorts (HST), Stifel (SF), Pilgrims Pride (PPC), Aurora Innovation (AUR), Penske Automotive (PAG), Alamos Gold (AGI), SCI (SCI), Antero Resources Corp (AR), MGM (MGM), Tetra Tech (TTEK), Confluent (CFLT), Generac (GNRC), OGE Energy (OGE), TIM Participacoes (TIMB), Hess Midstream Partners (HESM), Albemarle (ALB), Murphy USA Inc (MUSA), Antero Midstream (AM), Wingstop Inc (WING), National Fuel Gas (NFG), New Oriental Education&Tech (EDU), Virtu Financial Inc (VIRT), Ionis Pharma (IONS), Federal Signal (FSS), Gates Industrial Corp (GTES), Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA), Etsy Inc (ETSY), Comstock Resources (CRK), MGIC Investment (MTG), The Hanover Insurance (THG), Silgans (SLGN), Modine Manufacturing (MOD), Siteone Landscape Supply (SITE), Cognex (CGNX), Littelfuse (LFUS), Element Solutions (ESI), Q2 Holdings (QTWO), Timken (TKR), Guardant Health (GH), Glaukos Corp (GKOS), SPS Commerce (SPSC), Enact Holdings (ACT), FMC (FMC), Kite Realty (KRG), Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), Option Care Health (OPCH), TTM (TTMI), Merit (MMSI), Axos Financial (AX), VF (VFC), Magnolia Oil (MGY), Radian (RDN), Reynolds (REYN), EPR Properties (EPR), Independence Realty Trust Inc (IRT), Black Hills (BKH), Tenable (TENB), CBIZ (CBZ), Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), Cactus (WHD), Newmark Group (NMRK), Impinj (PI), TransMedics (TMDX), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Hawkins (HWKN), Genworth (GNW), Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT), Hayward Holdings (HAYW), NorthWestern (NWE), Broadstone Net (BNL), MYR Group (MYRG), Blackbaud (BLKB), VSE Corporation (VSEC), Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK), CVR Energy (CVI), Alkami Technology (ALKT), Harley-Davidson (HOG), FormFactor (FORM), Urban Edge Properties (UE), Methanex (MEOH), Silicon Motion (SIMO), Applied Digital (APLD), The Chefs Warehouse (CHEF).