Stock Index Futures Climb as U.S. Reaches Trade Deal With Japan, Tesla and Alphabet Earnings Awaited

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.39%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.19% this morning as sentiment got a boost after the U.S. announced a trade deal with Japan.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social late Tuesday that the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including autos, which is lower than the 25% rate he had previously threatened in a letter to the Japanese government. The deal will also see Japan invest $550 billion into the U.S. The U.S. also struck a deal with the Philippines, setting a 19% tariff on the nation’s exports. In addition, President Trump unveiled further details about a pact with Indonesia.

However, gains in U.S. equity futures are limited amid investor caution ahead of earnings from “Magnificent Seven” companies Tesla and Alphabet. Higher bond yields today are also weighing on stock index futures.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. IQVIA Holdings (IQV) surged over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results. Also, Paccar (PCAR) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted better-than-expected Q2 results. In addition, D.R. Horton (DHI) jumped over +16% after the homebuilder reported upbeat FQ3 results. On the bearish side, Lockheed Martin (LMT) slumped over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the defense contractor posted weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and cut its full-year EPS guidance.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low of -20 in July, weaker than expectations of -2.

Second-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with all eyes today on reports from two of this year’s laggards among the Magnificent Seven — Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Investors will also monitor earnings reports from other prominent companies such as T-Mobile US (TMUS), International Business Machines (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +3.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, slightly above the pre-season forecast of +2.8%.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Existing Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Existing Home Sales will stand at 4.00M, compared to 4.03M in May.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -1.400M, compared to last week’s value of -3.859M.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.3% chance of no rate change and a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s policy meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.381%, up +1.04%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.55% this morning as the trade pact between the U.S. and Japan boosted investor optimism that a U.S.-EU agreement could follow. Automobile stocks led the gains on Wednesday after the U.S.-Japan trade deal boosted investor sentiment on the sector. Healthcare stocks, which are also in the crosshairs of Trump’s tariff offensive, climbed as well, receiving an additional boost from upbeat Lonza earnings. Meanwhile, the prospects of an EU-U.S. trade agreement improved after Trump said on Tuesday that EU representatives were scheduled to arrive for trade negotiations on Wednesday. Investors now await the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence data for July, due later in the session. Investor focus is also on the European Central Bank’s rate-setting meeting on Thursday, with the central bank widely expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% following seven straight cuts. In corporate news, Temenos AG (TEMN.Z.IX) surged over +20% after the banking software company lifted its annual earnings guidance. At the same time, Nokia Oyj (NOKIA.H.DX) slid more than -6% after cutting its 2025 comparable operating profit guidance.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.01%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +3.51%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed just above the flatline today. The benchmark index initially moved sharply higher on trade optimism after the U.S. scheduled a new round of talks with China next week and reached a deal with Japan, but pared most of its gains by the close as investors opted to take profits following the recent rally. Technology stocks, which are closely tied to China-U.S. relations, outperformed on Wednesday. The gains came after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday he would meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for talks aimed at extending a tariff truce, signaling continued stabilization in relations after the U.S. recently relaxed chip restrictions and China resumed rare earths exports. Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that Minister Wang Wentao and European Union trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic held a “candid and in-depth” discussion on economic and trade cooperation, along with other issues both sides are facing. Investors are also looking to the country’s July Politburo meeting, where policymakers will deliberate on economic policies for the second half of the year. Market participants expect China to introduce additional measures to reduce excess capacity in certain emerging industries, ramping up the so-called anti-involution campaign. In corporate news, WuXi XDC Cayman surged over +8% after the company provided a strong H1 net profit forecast.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher and hit a one-year high today as the country struck a long-awaited trade deal with the U.S. Automobile stocks rallied on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal to set a lower-than-feared 15% tariff on imports from Japan. Industry and government officials familiar with the agreement said the deal also reduces the tariff on Japanese cars and auto parts to 15% from 25%, with autos making up more than a quarter of the country’s exports to the U.S. “We were the first in the world to achieve tariff reductions on autos and auto parts with no quantity limits,” Tokyo’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said after the latest round of trade talks in Washington. Meanwhile, Capital Economics’ Marcel Thieliant said the U.S.-Japan trade deal suggests the Bank of Japan may resume its tightening cycle this year, as it eliminates a key downside risk to Japan’s economy. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Wednesday that the central bank will continue pursuing further interest rate hikes, reinforcing rate-hike expectations sparked by news of the trade deal with the U.S. In other news, Japanese daily Mainichi reported on Wednesday that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to announce his resignation by the end of August, following the ruling coalition’s defeat in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. However, Ishiba has denied the report. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.83% to 22.73.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

GE Vernova (GEV) rose over +5% in pre-market trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and said it expects full-year revenue to trend toward the “higher end” of its $36B-$37B guidance.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat FQ4 results.

Texas Instruments (TXN) plunged over -12% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor company issued disappointing Q3 earnings guidance.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) slumped more than -7% in pre-market trading after the maker of solar-power inverters provided a tepid Q3 revenue forecast.

Medpace Holdings (MEDP) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold with a price target of $366.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - July 23rd

Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), T-Mobile US (TMUS), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), NextEra Energy (NEE), Boston Scientific (BSX), GE Vernova LLC (GEV), Amphenol (APH), CME Group (CME), Fiserv (FI), Moody’s (MCO), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), General Dynamics (GD), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Freeport-McMoran (FCX), CSX (CSX), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), TE Connectivity (TEL), United Rentals (URI), Waste Connections (WCN), Crown Castle (CCI), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Rollins (ROL), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Northern Trust (NTRS), NVR (NVR), Lennox (LII), SS&Cs (SSNC), Rogers Communications (RCI), Packaging America (PKG), Reliance Steel&Aluminum (RS), Graco (GGG), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Renaissancere (RNR), SEI (SEIC), Hasbro (HAS), Mr. Cooper (COOP), Globe Life (GL), Molina Healthcare (MOH), EastGroup Properties (EGP), Popular (BPOP), Churchill Downs (CHDN), Quantumscape (QS), Knight-Swift Trans (KNX), Prosperity Bancshares (PB), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), Wyndham Hotels (WH), Cadence Bancorp (CADE), Mattel (MAT), Alaska Air (ALK), Essential Properties (EPRT), First American (FAF), Selective (SIGI), Wex (WEX), Meritage (MTH), Sonoco Products (SON), Robert Half (RHI), United Community Banks (UCB), Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), Travel + Leisure Co (TNL), Plexus (PLXS), Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX), M/I Homes (MHO), BankUnited (BKU), Banc of California (BANC), ASGN (ASGN), Empire State Realty (ESRT), Oceaneering International (OII), Century Communities (CCS), Solaris Oilfield (SEI), Oxford Lane (OXLC), Stewart Info Services (STC), Getty (GTY), Netstreit (NTST), Veris Residential (VRE), Kaiser (KALU), Live Oak Bancshares Inc (LOB), MaxLinear (MXL), QCR (QCRH), Origin Bancorp (OBK), PROG Holdings (PRG).