S&P Futures Muted With Focus on Earnings and Trade Deals

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending down -0.04% this morning as investors brace for a raft of corporate earnings reports and continue to keep a close eye on any trade developments between the U.S. and key trading partners as the August 1st deadline approaches.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that U.S. President Donald Trump could issue additional unilateral tariff letters before August 1st. She added that more trade deals could also be reached before the deadline. Meanwhile, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will become the latest foreign leader eager to strike a deal before the deadline as he meets with Trump in the Oval Office later today.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new all-time highs. Verizon Communications (VZ) climbed over +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after the carrier posted upbeat Q2 results and raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted EPS growth forecast. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Arm Holdings (ARM) rising more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Qualcomm (QCOM) advancing over +2%. In addition, Block (XYZ) surged more than +7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would be added to the S&P 500 index on Wednesday, July 23rd. On the bearish side, Bruker (BRKR) plunged over -12% after the maker of scientific instruments posted weaker-than-expected preliminary Q2 results.

Economic data released on Monday showed that the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.3% m/m in June, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m.

“While stocks may be due for a breather, we believe the bull market remains intact. We maintain our June 2026 S&P 500 price target of 6,500, and recommend using volatility as an opportunity to phase into markets,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Second-quarter corporate earnings season is ramping up. Investors will be closely monitoring earnings reports today from notable companies like Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris International (PM), RTX Corp. (RTX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Danaher (DHR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and General Motors (GM). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +3.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, slightly above the pre-season forecast of +2.8%.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -2 in July, compared to the previous value of -7.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver opening remarks later today at a conference focused on capital frameworks for large banks. With Fed officials in a blackout period before the July 29-30 policy meeting, Mr. Powell is likely to avoid commenting on interest rates.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.4% probability of no rate change and a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.389%, up +0.23%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.65% this morning amid growing concerns that the U.S.-EU trade agreement may not be finalized before the August 1st deadline. Chemical stocks underperformed on Tuesday, with Akzo Nobel (AKZA.NA) falling over -2% after the Dulux paint maker cut its full-year core profit guidance. The European Central Bank said on Tuesday, based on a survey of the bloc’s largest lenders, that loan demand from Eurozone businesses increased last quarter despite pressure from geopolitical and trade tensions, and another increase is expected this quarter. Meanwhile, the European Union still seeks a trade agreement with the U.S., but the bloc is said to be preparing its countermeasures as Trump adopts a hardline stance and increases the chances of a no-deal outcome. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. officials told the EU’s trade chief last week they anticipate President Trump will demand additional concessions from the bloc to reach a deal, including a baseline tariff on most European goods that could be set at 15% or higher. At the same time, EU diplomats said the bloc was weighing a wider range of countermeasures against Washington, which could include targeting U.S. services or restricting access to public tenders if the deal isn’t reached. In other corporate news, Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.P.DX) plunged more than -8% after the French lab supplies manufacturer’s half-year results failed to impress investors. Also, Givaudan Sa (GIVN.Z.IX) slid over -5% after reporting weaker-than-expected half-year sales.

The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Tuesday.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.62%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.11%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, with sentiment remaining upbeat as the country began construction of the world’s biggest hydropower dam in Tibet and reports emerged of a potential meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies. Construction and power stocks extended their rally on Tuesday after China announced over the weekend the start of construction on a $170 billion hydropower dam in Tibet. Citi analysts said in a note that the project is macro relevant and could offer some demand support, likely alleviating concerns about growth and the labor market to some extent. Also boosting sentiment, Reuters reported that aides to U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have discussed the possibility of a meeting between the two leaders during Trump’s planned trip to Asia later this year. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that Washington and Beijing are set to hold talks “in the very near future,” with discussions potentially covering China’s purchases of Iranian and Russian oil. Investor focus is also on the July Politburo meeting, expected to take place in the coming days, where policymakers will deliberate on economic policies for the second half of the year. Economists stated that Beijing is unlikely to roll out broad-based stimulus in the near term, as real GDP growth in the first half surpassed this year’s “around 5%” target. Policymakers are likely to reaffirm their commitment to boosting domestic demand and stabilizing exports, employment, and the property market. In corporate news, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology gained over +1% after the semiconductor spare components developer and manufacturer provided a robust H1 net profit forecast.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly lower today as investors returning from a long holiday weekend weighed policy uncertainty after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s historic loss in Sunday’s upper house election. Pharmaceutical stocks led the declines on Tuesday. While the outcome of the vote was in line with market expectations, concerns surrounding the future direction of policy, especially in terms of government spending and trade, dampened sentiment. Several opposition parties that secured seats in the election have proposed reducing the sales tax to ease the burden of rising living costs. However, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who vowed to remain in office, has dismissed calls for tax cuts in favor of cash handouts funded by tax revenues, and Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated on Tuesday that sales tax reductions are not appropriate. Ishiba’s weakened domestic position also raises uncertainty over Japan’s tariff negotiations with the U.S., with the August 1st deadline looming. Still, three members of JPMorgan’s Global Markets Strategy said in a note that the election outcome is expected to have minimal impact on domestic stock prices. “Despite concerns about fiscal expansion and Japan-U.S. tariff agreement delays, the stock market has held broadly flat, supported by corporate reforms and fund flows,” the members said. In corporate news, Kansai Electric Power Co. rose over +3% after the company said it is considering building Japan’s first new nuclear reactor since the 2011 Fukushima disaster. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -7.39% to 22.92.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading as the chipmaker’s Q3 revenue guidance failed to impress investors.

Shopify (SHOP) slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after Loop Capital downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy with an unchanged price target of $120.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

Medpace Holdings (MEDP) soared more than +42% in pre-market trading after the clinical research company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

D.R. Horton (DHI) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the homebuilder reported better-than-expected FQ3 results.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - July 22nd

Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), RTX Corp. (RTX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Danaher (DHR), Chubb (CB), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Capital One Financial (COF), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Canadian National Railway (CNI), General Motors (GM), PACCAR (PCAR), MSCI (MSCI), DR Horton (DHI), Baker Hughes (BKR), CoStar (CSGP), EQT (EQT), Equifax (EFX), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Synchrony Financial (SYF), PulteGroup (PHM), KeyCorp (KEY), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Halliburton (HAL), Pentair (PNR), Genuine Parts (GPC), Tenet Healthcare (THC), East West Bancorp (EWBC), Avery Dennison (AVY), Manhattan Associates (MANH), MakeMyTrip (MMYT), Invesco (IVZ), Pegasystems (PEGA), IPG (IPG), Range Resources (RRC), Old National Bancorp (ONB), Badger Meter (BMI), Valmont Industries (VMI), Matador (MTDR), PennyMac Financial (PFSI), Cal-Maine (CALM), Enphase (ENPH), Renasant (RNST), First Bancorp (FBP), Cathay (CATY), Community Bank System (CBU), Trustmark (TRMK), Vicor (VICR), Karooooo (KARO), National Bank Holdings (NBHC), Hope Bancorp (HOPE), Forestar (FOR), Peoples Bancorp (PEBO), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT), Mercantile (MBWM).