Stocks Muted Before the Open as Investors Await U.S. Retail Sales Data, Netflix Earnings on Tap

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.05%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.13% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street after yesterday’s volatile session, with attention now turning to U.S. retail sales data and an earnings report from streaming giant Netflix.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview aired on Real America’s Voice on Wednesday that the U.S. is very close to finalizing a trade deal with India, while a deal with Europe is also possible, though it is too early to determine whether an agreement can be reached with Canada. Earlier on Wednesday, President Trump stated that he would send letters to over 150 countries informing them of tariff rates, with the imposed levies potentially set at 10% or 15%. “We’ll have well over 150 countries that we’re just going to send a notice of payment out, and the notice of payment is going to say what the tariff” rate will be, Trump told reporters.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green. Global Payments (GPN) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Financial Times reported that activist hedge fund Elliott Management had built a “sizeable” stake in the payments processing company. Also, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the drug and medical device maker posted better-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. In addition, Arm Holdings (ARM) rose over +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a $210 price target. On the bearish side, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) slid more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the Dutch supplier of chip-making equipment said it could no longer guarantee growth in 2026 due to rising uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s tariffs.

Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand came in at unchanged m/m and +2.3% y/y in June, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was unchanged m/m and rose +2.6% y/y in June, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. In addition, U.S. June industrial production rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, while manufacturing production rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of no change m/m.

“Disinflation remains, but the Fed will be undeterred in keeping rates steady until September. As long as the labor market remains strong and resilient, rates aren’t likely to move meaningfully lower, and that’s a good thing,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday that he anticipates tariffs will have a bigger impact on inflation in the coming months, making the Fed’s current restrictive stance “entirely appropriate.”

Meanwhile, the Fed said Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that U.S. economic activity “increased slightly” between late May and early July. “That represented an improvement over the previous report, in which half of districts reported at least slight declines in activity,” according to the Beige Book. Still, the report said that “uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses.” The report also said that all 12 regions of the country saw price increases, with businesses facing “modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.4% chance of no rate change and a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s July meeting.

Second-quarter corporate earnings season is gathering pace, and investors look forward to new reports from prominent companies today, including Netflix (NFLX), GE Aerospace (GE), Abbott Labs (ABT), and PepsiCo (PEP). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +2.8% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that Retail Sales will show a +0.1% m/m rise in June following a -0.9% m/m decline in May.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at -0.3% m/m in May. Economists expect the June figure to be +0.3% m/m.

The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be reported today. Economists foresee the Philly Fed manufacturing index standing at -1.2 in July, compared to last month’s value of -4.0.

U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes will come in today. Economists anticipate the export price index to be unchanged m/m and the import price index to rise +0.3% m/m in June, compared to the previous figures of -0.9% m/m and unchanged m/m, respectively.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 233K, compared to last week’s number of 227K.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Fed Governors Adriana Kugler, Lisa Cook, and Christopher Waller, along with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.469%, up +0.34%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.54% this morning as investors digest strong corporate earnings reports and remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union. Industrial stocks led the gains on Thursday, boosted by upbeat quarterly results from ABB, Legrand, and Diploma. Also, chip stocks recouped some losses from the prior session after TSMC reported a record Q2 profit and raised its full-year revenue growth guidance. Final data from Eurostat released on Thursday confirmed that the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate edged up to 2.0% in June from 1.9% in May. Separately, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that Britain’s labor market continued to cool in May, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to lower interest rates next month, despite last month’s surprise rise in inflation. Meanwhile, investors await clarity on U.S.-EU trade talks, with the bloc preparing retaliatory measures in case negotiations with Washington break down. U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview aired on Real America’s Voice on Wednesday that a deal with Europe could potentially be reached soon. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic traveled to Washington on Wednesday for trade talks and is expected to meet with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. In other corporate news, Ocado Group Plc (OCDO.LN) jumped over +11% after the British online grocery and technology company announced it aims to achieve positive cash flow in its next financial year.

U.K.’s Average Earnings ex Bonus, U.K.’s Unemployment Rate, Eurozone’s CPI, and Eurozone’s Core CPI data were released today.

U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus came in at 5.0% in the three months to May, stronger than expectations of 4.9%.

The U.K. Unemployment Rate was 4.7% in the three months to May, weaker than expectations of 4.6%.

Eurozone’s June CPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s June Core CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +2.3% y/y, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.37%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.60%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today as sentiment got a boost after Citi upgraded domestic equities. Technology stocks jumped on Thursday, lifted by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s Q2 earnings beat and upward revision to full-year revenue guidance, along with news that Nvidia will ramp up the supply of its H20 AI chips to China. Automobile stocks also advanced after China’s cabinet vowed to curb “irrational competition” in the nation’s rapidly expanding electric-vehicle sector, as deflationary pressures continue to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, Citi analysts upgraded China equities to Overweight, pointing to a relatively stronger earnings outlook, reasonable valuations, and structural themes like AI and corporate governance reforms. Internet stocks are among the top picks, as recent news about the resumption of AI chip sales by U.S. firms to China could have a marginally positive impact, according to Citi. On the trade front, Bloomberg reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has softened his confrontational stance toward China in a bid to secure a summit with counterpart Xi Jinping and reach a trade agreement with the world’s second-largest economy. In corporate news, CanSino Biologics climbed over +3% in Hong Kong after the company received clinical trial approval in China for its Recombinant Trivalent Poliomyelitis Vaccine. Investor focus is now on the upcoming Politburo meeting, which is expected to guide economic policy for the remainder of the year. Citi economists said that China might introduce additional policy measures to boost consumption, potentially including the rollout of a long-awaited childcare subsidy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier losses and closed higher today as a weaker yen boosted sentiment. Pharmaceutical stocks led the gains on Thursday. The benchmark index also got a boost from technology stocks in the final hour after the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, TSMC, posted better-than-expected Q2 profit and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast. Data from the Ministry of Finance released on Thursday showed that Japan’s exports fell for the second consecutive month in June, heightening concerns that U.S. tariffs could stall the country’s economic recovery and complicate the Bank of Japan’s policy plans. Japan’s shipments to the U.S. dropped 11.4% from a year earlier in June, marking the largest monthly percentage decline since February 2021 and underscoring the impact of higher tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump has consistently expressed frustration that Japan is not purchasing enough American goods and threatened to impose a “reciprocal” 25% tariff on Japanese exports beginning August 1st. That tariff, along with the existing 25% duties on cars and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, could potentially reduce Japan’s gross domestic product by 1%, according to Stefan Angrick at Moody’s Analytics. Japanese officials have traveled to Washington and held meetings with the Trump administration, but it is still uncertain how close they are to finalizing a trade agreement. Meanwhile, Japan’s government stated that its top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, had a 45-minute phone conversation with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday regarding U.S. tariffs. “The two sides re-confirmed each other’s position on U.S. tariff measures and engaged in deep conversation,” the government said in a statement. Investors are also cautiously awaiting the outcome of Japan’s Upper House election scheduled for July 20th. Multiple local polls indicate that the ruling coalition could lose its majority, potentially adding further complexity to trade negotiations with the U.S. In corporate news, Seven & i Holdings plunged over -9% after Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard abandoned its $47 billion bid to buy the company. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.33% to 24.35.

The Japanese June Trade Balance stood at 153.1B yen, weaker than expectations of 353.9B yen.

The Japanese June Exports unexpectedly fell -0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% y/y.

The Japanese June Imports unexpectedly rose +0.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of -1.6% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rose over +4% in pre-market trading after the world’s biggest contract chipmaker reported better-than-expected Q2 profit and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast.

PepsiCo (PEP) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after the beverages and snacks company posted better-than-expected Q2 results and maintained its full-year outlook.

Oracle (ORCL) advanced nearly +1% in pre-market trading after Scotiabank initiated coverage of the stock with an Outperform rating and $300 price target.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) slid over -5% in pre-market trading after President Trump said that Coca-Cola had agreed to use real cane sugar in the U.S.

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after the carrier reported weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - July 17th

Netflix (NFLX), GE Aerospace (GE), Abbott Labs (ABT), PepsiCo (PEP), Marsh McLennan (MMC), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Cintas (CTAS), Elevance Health (ELV), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Travelers (TRV), Fifth Third (FITB), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), Snap-On (SNA), Webster Financial (WBS), Western Alliance (WAL), Bank Ozk (OZK), FNB (FNB), Texas Capital (TCBI), Cohen Steers (CNS), Simmons First National (SFNC), ManpowerGroup (MAN), OFG Bancorp (OFG), Metropolitan Bank (MCB), Insteel Industries (IIIN), Bank7 (BSVN).