Stocks Fade as Expectations are Trimmed for Fed Rate Cut in September

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed down -0.40%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.98%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.13%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.50%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) were unchanged. 

Stock indexes rallied early Tuesday due to a favorable core CPI print of +0.2% m/m, but then faded as T-note prices fell and as expectations for a Fed rate cut in September were trimmed to 58% from 65%.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +5 bp, and the 30-year T-bond yield rose back above the 5% mark for the first time in 6 weeks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was undercut by negative breadth with 26 of the 30 stocks showing declines, led by American Express (AXP), Home Depot (HD), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Merck (MRK).

Tuesday's CPI report received some favorable initial media attention due to the slightly weaker-than-expected +0.2% m/m increase in the core CPI, which was partly driven by lower car prices.  However, there were some scattered signs in the CPI report of upside pressure from tariffs, and that pressure is expected to increase in the coming months.  Also, both the headline and core CPI reports on a year-over-year basis rose from May.

Specifically, the June US CPI rose +0.3% m/m, which was in line with market expectations, while the year-over-year figure of +2.7% was slightly worse than expectations of +2.6% and was up from May's +2.4%.  The June US core CPI rose +0.2% m/m, which was slightly better than expectations of +0.3%.  On a year-over-year basis, the June US core CPI was in line with expectations at +2.9% y/y but rose from May's +2.8%.

Expectations for a -25 bp Fed rate cut were little changed for the July FOMC meeting but were trimmed to 58% for the September meeting from 65% on Tuesday.  Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and at 58% at the following meeting on Sep 16-17.

There was some positive trade news Tuesday after Treasury Secretary Bessent said that US-China trade talks are in a "very good place" and that the US-China deadline is flexible and told market participants "not to worry about August 12." Mr. Bessent confirmed that the Trump administration has told Nvidia that a license for the sale of its advanced H20 GPU chips to Chinese firms will be granted and is "all part of a mosaic" in the US-China negotiations.  He also said he hopes to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in August.

There was also some positive trade news after President Trump announced that his administration had reached a trade deal with Indonesia. However, US imports from Indonesia, totaling around $2.8 billion, will face a US tariff of 19%, which is likely to raise the price that US consumers pay for Indonesian goods. 

Stocks have been undercut by recent negative US trade news.  Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%.  Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which will include semi-finished goods, and stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don't relocate production to the US within the next year.

Tuesday's July Empire manufacturing index report of 5.5 was stronger than expectations of -9.2, and was up from June's level of -16.0.

The price of Bitcoin (^BTSUSD) fell -3% Tuesday after the House failed to approve a procedural vote to begin consideration of three bills backed by the crypto industry.  Bitcoin has rallied sharply in the past several weeks, driven by hopes for favorable crypto regulation from Washington.  The US House Committee on Ways and Means plans to hold an oversight subcommittee hearing on July 16 entitled "Making America the Crypto Capital of the World," which may promote crypto-friendly regulations.

The markets during the remainder of this week will focus on any fresh news on tariffs or trade deals.  On Wednesday, June PPI final demand is expected to ease to +2.5% y/y from +2.6% in May, and June core PPI is expected to ease to +2.7% y/y from +3.0% y/y in May. Also, on Wednesday, June manufacturing production is expected to fall by -0.1% m/m.  Finally, on Wednesday, the Fed will release its Beige Book.  On Thursday, June retail sales are expected to climb by +0.1% m/m and +0.3% ex-autos, and weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +7,000 to 234,000.  Also, on Thursday, the July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to climb +3.0 points to -1.0, and the July NAHB housing market index is expected to rise +1 to 33.  On Friday, June housing starts are expected to climb +3.3% m/m to 1.298 million, and June building permits are expected to slip -0.6% m/m to 1.386 million.  Also, the University of Michigan's US July consumer sentiment index is expected to climb +0.8 to 61.5.

Earnings season began in earnest this week with a focus on big bank earnings results.  Key earnings reports on Wednesday include Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and United Airlines.  Key reports on Thursday include PepsiCorp, Abbott, US Bancorp, GE Fifth Third, and GE.  Key reports on Friday include Schwab and American Express.

The consensus is for the S&P 500 companies to show Q2 earnings growth of +2.8% y/y, the smallest increase in two years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research. 

Overseas stock markets on Tuesday closed mixed.   The Euro Stoxx 50 fell -0.31%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.42%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.55%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) on Tuesday fell -14.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose by +5.2 bp to 4.485%.  T-note prices were undercut by reduced expectations for Fed easing, as the market cut expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting to 58% from 65%.  Also, the 10-year breakeven expectations rate rose to a 4.75-month high and ended the day up +1.0 bp at 2.414%.

Also on the bearish side for US bond prices, the Trump administration's campaign against Fed Chair Powell continued Tuesday, fueling concern among bond vigilantes about the Fed's independence and the possibility of politically driven interest rate cuts that could be inflationary.  US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Fed Chair Powell should step down as a Fed Governor when his term as Fed Chairman ends in May 2026, in line with tradition. Mr. Powell's term as a Fed Governor lasts until January 2028, well beyond the expiration of his term as Chairman in mid-May 2026.

Mr. Bessent also stated that he is part of a formal process that has already begun to decide who President Trump will appoint as the new Chairman when Mr. Powell's term ends in May 2026, or earlier, "for cause," based on attacks on how Mr. Powell has handled the renovation of the Fed's building in Washington.

European government bond yields were mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.7 bp to 2.712%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +2.5 bp to 4.625%.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 2% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks generally closed higher on Tuesday, except for Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA), which closed more than -1% lower.  Apple (AAPL) closed slightly higher after news that it reached a $500 million deal to buy rare-earth minerals from Pentagon-backed MP Materials Corp. 

In Tesla (TSLA) news, the company opened its first India showroom.  Also, Bloomberg reported that Tesla's top sales executive in North America, Troy Jones, has left the company after a 15-year stint.

Chip stocks showed some strength Tuesday, and helped keep the Nasdaq 100 index in positive territory, after the Trump administration indicated that it will loosen US restrictions on chip sales to China.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose more than +6%, and Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than +4%.  Arm Holdings (ARM) rose more than +2%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks closed lower on Tuesday as bitcoin (^BTCUSD) fell -3% on the failure of the House to approve a procedural vote to consider crypto-friendly bills.  Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell more than -3%, and Mara Holdings (MARA) fell by more than -2%.  MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell -1.9%, and Coinbase (COIN) fell -1.5%.

BlackRock (BLK) fell by more than -5% after it reported that long-term asset inflows were less than market expectations. 

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell -0.7% after it raised its full-year expense guidance.

Copper miners traded lower after Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector's prospects due to expectations that 50% tariffs will lead to reduced US demand for copper products. Freeport McMoRan (FCX) fell -3%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) fell -2.4%. 

Earnings Reports (7/16/2025)

Prologis Inc (PLD), Progressive Corp/The (PGR), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), PNC Financial Services Group I (PNC), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI).