Stock Index Futures Climb on Nvidia Boost Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data and Big Bank Earnings

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.39%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.56% this morning as sentiment got a boost after Nvidia said it would restart sales of some AI chips to China, while investors awaited the release of key U.S. inflation data and earnings reports from some of the biggest U.S. banks.

Nvidia (NVDA) gained over +5% in pre-market trading after the chip maker said it plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China following assurances from Washington that export licenses would be granted. Other chip stocks also advanced in pre-market trading, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Arm Holdings (ARM) up more than +2%.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher. Autodesk (ADSK) climbed over +5% and was among the top percentage gainers on the S&P 500 after the company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it is prioritizing organic growth with “targeted and tuck-in acquisitions,” signaling it has likely dropped its bid for PTC. Also, AppLovin (APP) surged more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Citi reiterated that the stock remains a “Top Pick” heading into the company’s Q2 report on August 6th. In addition, Fastenal (FAST) rose over +4% after the company posted better-than-expected Q2 results. On the bearish side, Waters (WAT) tumbled more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company announced it was acquiring Becton Dickinson’s Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions business in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction valued at $17.5 billion.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Monday that she wants to see further declines in inflation before supporting an interest rate cut. “We’re not there yet on the inflation side of the mandate. I think it’s important that we wait and see how all the new policies that have been put forward are going to impact inflation,” she said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.3% probability of no rate change and a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, the second-quarter corporate earnings season gets underway, with some of the biggest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), slated to report their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +2.8% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report will be closely scrutinized for any indications of whether tariffs are already driving up prices and what implications this could have for U.S. interest rates. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. June CPI will come in at +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y in June, compared to the May figures of +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y.

“Inflation pressures have remained muted so far, but tariffs will eventually feed through pushing prints higher and creating some discomfort for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.

A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 42% of investors expect a “risk-on” market reaction to the CPI report, while 29% anticipate a “mixed” response and another 29% foresee a “risk-off” response. Moreover, the survey showed that 67% of investors believe the core CPI is on a Fed-friendly glide path.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index will also be released today. Economists anticipate the Empire State manufacturing index to be -8.30 in July, compared to last month’s value of -16.00.

In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Michael Barr, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.418%, down -0.25%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.24% this morning as sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled openness to talks with the European Union and other trading partners, noting that EU officials would be visiting the U.S. for trade negotiations. Tariff-exposed automobile stocks rebounded on Tuesday. Also, technology stocks climbed following news that Nvidia plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China. Final data from the National Statistics Institute released on Tuesday showed that Spain’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.3% in June, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 2.2%, ending a three-month streak of deceleration. Separately, the ZEW economic research institute reported that German investor morale improved more than expected in July. “After the strong improvements of the past two months, the positive sentiment among respondents is becoming more firmly established,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. In addition, data showed that the Eurozone’s industrial production partially recovered from a tariff-driven slump in May, signaling resilience in Europe’s manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the European Union has completed a second list of countermeasures targeting U.S. goods worth 72 billion euros ($84 billion), including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon, in case it chooses to retaliate against Trump’s tariff policy. Trump threatened a 30% tariff on most EU imports from August 1st over the weekend, a rate that analysts warn could push the Eurozone to the brink of recession. In corporate news, Accelleron Industries AG (ACLN.Z.IX) surged more than +11% after the engine components maker boosted its annual revenue guidance. Also, Orsted (ORSTE.C.DX) climbed over +8% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight.

Spain’s CPI, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and Eurozone’s Industrial Production data were released today.

The Spanish June CPI rose +0.7% m/m and +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +2.2% y/y.

The German July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index stood at 52.7, stronger than expectations of 50.8.

The Eurozone July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index arrived at 36.1, weaker than expectations of 37.8.

Eurozone May Industrial Production rose +1.7% m/m and +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.42%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.55%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors digested a raft of economic data from the country, highlighting sluggish consumer demand and ongoing weakness in the property sector. Property stocks slumped on Tuesday after a high-level meeting, held by Chinese leader Xi, failed to buoy hopes of additional stimulus, while data earlier in the day confirmed the sector’s downturn, with prices, sales, and investment all continuing to decline. State news agency Xinhua reported that China held the Central Urban Work Conference on Monday and Tuesday, with President Xi Jinping urging a faster transition to a “new model” of property development, emphasizing a more measured approach to urban planning and upgrades. Still, analysts said they don’t see any signs of concrete measures in the near term. Meanwhile, data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Tuesday showed that China’s economy slowed less than anticipated in the second quarter, demonstrating resilience to U.S. tariffs, though robust exports to non-U.S. markets due to frontloading masked mounting pressure from weak consumer demand at home. Separately, key Chinese activity data delivered mixed signals about the economy in June, possibly increasing pressure on policymakers to introduce additional stimulus measures. While industrial output rose last month at the quickest pace since March, retail sales growth, a key gauge of consumption, slowed to its lowest level since January-February. Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA, said, “It’s a picture of strong supply but weak domestic demand, and export resilience is not going to last. Not a good set of data despite the GDP beat.” Investor focus now turns to the upcoming Politburo meeting, which is expected to guide economic policy for the remainder of the year. Goldman Sachs analysts said that they expect “incremental [and] targeted easing to help stem the property downturn and mitigate labour market pressures” in the second half of the year.

The Chinese GDP has been reported at +1.1% q/q and +5.2% y/y in the second quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.9% q/q and +5.1% y/y.

The Chinese June Industrial Production rose +6.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.6% y/y.

The Chinese June Retail Sales rose +4.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.2% y/y.

The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment rose +2.8% y/y in the first half of the year, weaker than expectations of +3.6% y/y.

The Chinese June Unemployment Rate was 5.0%, in line with expectations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, recovering losses from the prior session. Chip-related stocks outperformed on Tuesday after Nvidia said it will resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China. Sentiment was also supported by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who signaled openness to trade talks with the European Union and other key partners. However, the benchmark index’s gains were limited as investors awaited U.S. inflation data and the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary election. Meanwhile, Japanese long-dated government bond yields jumped on Tuesday amid worries over fiscal spending. Market participants are concerned that the outcome of the Upper House election on July 20th could strip the ruling coalition of its majority and trigger an increase in fiscal spending, potentially funded through additional bond issuance. A potential defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito could also add to the uncertainty about trade talks with the U.S. Nomura strategist Fumika Shimizu said, “If the ruling party were to lose its majority in the upper house, there is a risk that trade negotiations with the U.S. will be delayed.” Ahead of Sunday’s election, investors will be watching Japan’s trade and inflation data for fresh clues on how U.S. tariffs are affecting the country’s export-reliant economy. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.71% to 23.55.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) gained over +5% in pre-market trading after the chip maker said it plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China following assurances from Washington that export licenses would be granted. Other chip stocks also advanced in pre-market trading, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Arm Holdings (ARM) up more than +2%.

The Trade Desk (TTD) jumped more than +14% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would be added to the S&P 500 index on Friday, July 18th.

MP Materials (MP) climbed over +7% in pre-market trading after Fox Business reported that Apple is expected to announce a $500 million commitment to the operator of the only U.S. rare earths mine. 

DoorDash (DASH) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) slid more than -1% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $37.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - July 15th

JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), State Street (STT), JB Hunt (JBHT), Omnicom (OMC), Albertsons (ACI), Pinnacle (PNFP), Hancock Whitney (HWC), Fulton (FULT), Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS), AngioDynamics (ANGO), Park Aerospace (PKE).