Stocks See Support from Airline Stocks but Trade Uncertainty Persists

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.41%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.34%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.13%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.33%. 

Stocks today are mixed.  Strength in airline stocks is positive for the broader market, with Delta Air Lines jumping more than +12% after restoring its full-year guidance.  Stocks also found support after today’s US weekly initial unemployment report showed jobless claims unexpectedly fell to an 8-week low, a sign that the US labor market remains strong. 

Stocks continue to see downward pressure due to uncertainty about President Trump’s trade policies. On Wednesday, President Trump issued a new set of tariff demands on several countries, including a 50% tariff rate on Brazil.  Mr. Trump also confirmed that the US will begin levying a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1.  Higher T-note yields are also weighing on stocks today, with the 10-year T-note yield up +3 bp to 4.36%.

President Trump has vowed to push forward with his aggressive tariff regime, stressing he would not offer additional extensions on country-specific tariffs set to take effect on August 1.  Mr. Trump also stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don’t relocate production to the US within the next year.  In addition, despite stating that the US was close to a trade deal with India, Mr. Trump said he would still impose a 10% tariff on India’s goods for their participation in BRICS, a group of developing nations he claimed were “set up to hurt” the US.   

US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -5,000 to an 8-week low of 227,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 235,000.  However, weekly continuing claims rose +10,000 to a 3.5-year high of 1.965 million, right on expectations and a sign that out-of-work Americans are finding it difficult to secure a new job. 

Comments today from St. Louis Fed President Musalem were slightly hawkish, as he noted that he sees upside risks to inflation, but it is too early to determine whether tariffs will have a persistent impact on prices.

Another hurdle for stocks is the upcoming earnings season, which begins this week.  Bloomberg Intelligence data show that the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 companies is for a rise of +2.8% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years.  Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets today are mixed.   The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 3.5-month high and is down -0.11%.  China’s Shanghai Composite rallied to a 9-month high and closed up +0.48%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.44%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -7 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.4 bp to 4.367%.  T-notes are under pressure today after US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to an 8-week low, a sign of labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy.  T-notes are also weighed down by concern that US tariff increases could boost inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates.  T-notes extended their losses today after St. Louis Fed President Musalem said he sees upside risks to inflation.  In addition, supply pressures are negative for T-notes, as the Treasury will auction $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds later today to conclude this week’s auction slate of $119 billion of T-notes and T-bonds. 

European government bond yields today are mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.6 bp at 2.698%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.0 bp to 4.602%.

Italy May industrial production fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 3% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Airline stocks are climbing today, led by a +12% jump in Delta Air Lines (DAL) after the company restored its full-year guidance and projects full-year adjusted EPS of $5.25-$6.25, the midpoint well above the consensus of $5.35.  American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are up more than +11%, Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +8%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +5%. 

MP Materials (MP) is up more than +52% after the company struck a multi-billion-dollar public-private deal with the US Department of Defense to build a new magnet plant and expand rare earth capabilities.  

WK Kellogg (KLG) is up more than +30% after Ferrero International SA acquired the company for about $3.1 billion or $23 per share. 

Advance Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $200.

Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +3% after CEO Musk said the company will launch deployment of its driverless taxis in the San Francisco Bay area “in a month or two,” pending regulatory approvals.

Trex Co (TREX) is up more than +5% after Baird upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $75.

McDonald’s (MCD) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $345. 

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is up more than +1% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $300.

Helen of Troy (HELE) is down more than -24% after reporting Q1 net sales of $371.7 million, weaker than the consensus of $396.5 million.   

Methode Electronics (MEI) is down more than -21% after reporting a Q4 loss per share of -77 cents versus a loss of -23 cents y/y. 

Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 on reports that the company is weighing the acquisition of PTC Inc.

Conagra Brands (CAG) is down more than -3% to lead packaged food makers lower after reporting Q4 net sales of $2.78 billion, below the consensus of $2.84 billion.  Also, the Campbell’s Company (CPB) is down more than -1% and J M Smucker (SJM) is down -0.81%.

Workday (WDAY) is down more than -4% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $235. 

Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -3% after CFRA downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Earnings Reports (7/10/2025)

Byrna Technologies Inc (BYRN), Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), E2open Parent Holdings Inc (ETWO), Frequency Electronics Inc (FEIM), Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE), PriceSmart Inc (PSMT), Simply Good Foods Co/The (SMPL), WD-40 Co (WDFC).