Stocks Muted Before the Open Amid Tariff Uncertainty, U.S. Jobless Claims Data and Fed Speak on Tap

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.12%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.09% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, while investors await U.S. jobless data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

President Trump on Wednesday announced 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, the highest rate announced so far, and confirmed via social media that 50% tariffs on copper products would take effect from August 1st. Trump also stated he would impose a 30% tariff on Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka, along with 25% duties on goods from Brunei and Moldova, and a 20% rate on products from the Philippines.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed in the green. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) rising over +1%. Also, AES Corp. (AES) surged more than +19% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that the renewable power company was exploring options, including a possible sale, amid takeover interest. In addition, Boeing (BA) climbed over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after delivering 60 aircraft in June, marking its highest monthly total in 18 months. On the bearish side, Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) plunged more than -12% after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 revenue and said it wasn’t “reinstating specific guidance beyond what we have already stated” amid tariff-related uncertainty.

Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. Wholesale Inventories fell -0.3% m/m in May, in line with the preliminary reading.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17-18 meeting, released Wednesday, showed that officials remained divided on how tariffs would impact inflation. “While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” according to the FOMC minutes. Policymakers cited “considerable uncertainty” regarding the timing, magnitude, and duration of the tariffs’ possible impact on inflation. Still, most policymakers judged that “some reduction” in the Fed’s policy rate would probably be appropriate this year.

Meanwhile, President Trump on Wednesday posted on social media that the Fed’s rate is “at least 3 points too high,” while repeating his demand for lower rates to ease the burden of servicing the national debt.

“Optimism is growing that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as September, particularly if upcoming data shows inflation is softening,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index. “But this is not a given as Trump’s policies could ramp up inflation in the coming months, which would lessen the need to loosen policy aggressively.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.3% chance of no rate change and a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s July meeting.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 236K, compared to last week’s number of 233K.

Also, market participants will parse comments today from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

In addition, investors will monitor earnings reports from several notable companies, with Delta Air Lines (DAL), Conagra Brands (CAG), and Levi Strauss (LEVI) scheduled to report their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.349%, up +0.21%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.29% this morning, extending its advance for a fourth straight session, amid optimism over U.S.-EU trade talks. China-exposed mining and luxury stocks outperformed on Thursday. The gains followed a rally in Chinese property stocks on the back of unverified reports that a high-level meeting could be held next week to aid the struggling sector. Final data from the Federal Statistical Office released on Thursday confirmed that Germany’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.0% in June from 2.1% in May. Separately, data showed that Italy’s monthly industrial production fell more than expected in May. Meanwhile, negotiators from the U.S. and EU inched closer to reaching a deal. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said on Wednesday that the European Commission had made solid progress on a framework agreement with Washington, and that a deal could be finalized within days. Reuters reported that the negotiators are also weighing potential measures to safeguard the EU auto industry. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday that the EU is working “non-stop” to secure an agreement with the U.S. aimed at keeping trade tariffs as low as possible. In corporate news, Barry Callebaut AG (BARN.Z.IX) tumbled over -13% after the Swiss chocolate maker lowered its volume forecast for the third time this year.

Germany’s CPI and Italy’s Industrial Production data were released today.

The German June CPI was unchanged m/m and rose +2.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Italian May Industrial Production arrived at -0.7% m/m and -0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.48%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.44%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today as investors scooped up stocks expected to benefit from government policies. Property stocks jumped on Thursday, driven by speculation that a high-level meeting may take place next week to support the ailing sector. Photovoltaic stocks also advanced as China pledged to curb solar overcapacity. In addition, bank stocks continued to build on their recent gains. Analysts noted that dividend yields of bank stocks remain appealing, and dividend-focused investments often outperform during times of sluggish economic growth. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching for any signs of policy stimulus after China’s producer deflation deepened in June to its worst level in nearly two years. Nomura’s Chief China economist, Ting Lu, cautioned in a note that China’s economic fundamentals could deteriorate visibly in the second half of the year, with demand weakening on multiple fronts. He added that slowing export growth, worsened by U.S. tariffs, along with persistent troubles in the property sector, continue to pose major risks. As a result, Beijing will likely move quickly to unveil a new round of supportive measures sometime in the second half of the year. In corporate news, Seazen Holdings climbed over +7% after reporting total commercial operating income of 6.94 billion yuan for the first half, exceeding the figure from the same period last year. Investors look ahead to the July Politburo meeting for indications on how top leaders may seek to reverse a deflationary trend that has lasted nearly three years.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today amid continued worries over U.S. tariffs. Electronics and retail stocks led the declines on Thursday. Data from the Bank of Japan released on Thursday showed that Japan’s annual wholesale inflation eased in June for the third straight month, reinforcing the central bank’s stance that upward pressure on prices from raw material costs will gradually subside. Still, the monetary policy outlook remains clouded by uncertainty over U.S. trade policy following President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. Daiwa Securities economist Kento Minami stated that if President Trump implements a 25% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods, it would likely reduce Japan’s real GDP cumulatively by 1.1%. The BOJ, however, left its economic assessment for all nine regions unchanged from three months earlier on Thursday, noting that each area experienced a moderate economic recovery. Meanwhile, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Thursday that Japan is aiming to arrange talks between tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the latter’s visit to Japan for the World Expo next week. In other news, foreign investors purchased a net 611.7 billion yen worth of Japanese stocks during the week through July 5th, marking a second consecutive week of net buying, driven by a rally in AI-related technology stocks. In corporate news, Disco rose over +4% after the company boosted its Q1 earnings guidance, attributing the revision to robust demand tied to AI. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.86% to 22.69.

The Japanese June PPI has been reported at -0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, in line with expectations.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

WK Kellogg (KLG) jumped over +52% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Italian candy maker Ferrero was nearing a roughly $3 billion deal to buy the cereal company.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after the carrier posted better-than-expected Q2 results and reinstated its 2025 profit guidance.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after HSBC upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $200 price target.

U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rose about +0.8% in pre-market trading after the world’s biggest contract chipmaker reported a 40% increase in January-June revenue from a year earlier.

Workday (WDAY) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - July 10th

Delta Air Lines (DAL), Conagra Brands (CAG), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Simply Good Foods (SMPL), PriceSmart (PSMT), WD-40 (WDFC), E2open Parent Holdings (ETWO), Byrna Technologies (BYRN), Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE), Northern Technologies (NTIC).